Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
241 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue
early this week as a series of upper level disturbance move
through the Ohio Valley. Drier conditions are expected Wednesday
into Thursday as high pressure builds into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MCV evident on both radar and satellite imagery moving east
along the Indiana/Kentucky border this afternoon. The airmass
across our area has destabilized fairly nicely with sbcapes up
around 2000 J/KG. The main axis of showers and storms ahead of
the MCV is pivoting up across southwest portions of our fa attm
and expect this to continue to work northeast across our area
through late afternoon/early evening. DCAPEs out ahead of this
are in the 1000-1200 J/KG range, so some locally damaging wind
gusts will be possible despite the somewhat weaker wind fields
aloft. Otherwise, as the MCV works slowly east overnight,
occasional showers and some embedded thunderstorms will remain
possible into the overnight hours. With PWs in the 1.75 inch
range, some locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
On the back side of the shortwave, some subsidence will develop
across our area through the day on Monday and will try to keep
pops on the low side through the daytime period. Highs on Monday
will be in the mid 80s. The chance for showers and thunderstorms
will then spread back in from the west Monday night as another
mid level short wave lifts northeast across the Ohio Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Broad/large-scale cyclonic flow will envelop the Great Lakes region
Tuesday into midweek as a pronounced mid/upper level low meanders
north of the Great Lakes through Thursday.

An embedded vort max will be pulling east of the ILN FA early
Tuesday morning as a cold front slowly sags southeast through the
daytime period across the Ohio Valley. The approach of a yet another
distinct S/W on Tuesday afternoon from the southwest will allow for
the southward progression of the front to be stunted a bit during
the daytime period, which will allow for continued shower/storm
chances -- especially southeast of the I-71 corridor -- by the
afternoon once again. Drier air will be filtering in from the north
rather slowly until the S/W energy finally moves east Tuesday
evening and the front is able to clear the entire local area through
the overnight period into Wednesday morning. With all of this being
said, the greatest forcing on Tuesday may end up being centered just
south/east of the local area, lending itself to some uncertainty
into exactly how widespread (or not) any convection will be
near/southeast of I-71 in the warm sector ahead of the southeast-
progressing frontal boundary. The front will likely be characterized
by a broad wind shift from SW to more WNW through the late
afternoon/evening, so the degree of low level convergence/focus for
ascent along the boundary itself remains somewhat in question. Will
maintain likely PoPs near/east of the I-71 corridor, but coverage of
storms may end up being more scattered opposed to numerous. But
still plenty of time to hammer out the details for Tuesday afternoon.

There remains high confidence in a return to drier/cooler air for
Wednesday and Thursday, but with some embedded energy and a subtle
secondary trof axis pivoting around the base of the broad midlevel
cyclonic flow through the Ohio Valley, suppose a slight chance of a
diurnally-driven shower cannot be completely ruled out for
Wednesday.

Model guidance remains in fairly good agreement showing the
development of a warm front to the south of the area early Friday as
a S/W digs across the upper Midwest. This front will likely drift
north into the area at some point on Friday, leading to a return of
warm/moist air by this upcoming weekend as a broad midlevel cyclone
organizes across the Midwest. Given the pattern signal in the
ensembles, feel reasonably confident even at these time ranges in a
return of a stormier pattern for next weekend with the influx of
seasonably warm/humid air back into the region. These types of
patterns are almost always dictated by modulations in the mesoscale
environment from one part of the day to another, so it is difficult
at this time to pinpoint one particular time window for favored
storm activity. Nevertheless, could very well see episodic
thunderstorms for next weekend across at least a portion of the
local area as highs again creep back toward 90 degrees and lows only
drop to around 70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid level short wave energy is pushing east across the mid Ohio
Valley this afternoon. Out ahead of this, an axis of showers
and thunderstorms is pivoting northeast toward our area with
more isolated thunderstorms further northeast ahead of it. The
main axis of thunderstorms should rotate up across our area
through mid to late afternoon, with some periods of MVFR to
possibly IFR cigs and vsbys possible with the stronger cells,
along with some stronger wind gusts. Once this initial area of
pcpn moves through, we will then likely see some periods of
showers and embedded thunderstorms persist into tonight as the
short wave moves slowly east across the region. This will allow
for prevailing cigs to fall into MVFR and eventually IFR
category overnight, along with occasional MVFR vsbys. Pcpn
should taper off from the southwest later tonight into early
Monday as we get on the back side of the system, with cigs
gradually lifting through MVFR to VFR late in the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times through Tuesday
night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JGL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
411 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-221100-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
411 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon into this evening. Damaging winds will be the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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