River Flood Warning 10, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
357 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into today ahead of a
cold front moving through the region. A drier and cooler
airmass will settle into the area for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A strengthening low level jet will continue to pivot into the
region through daybreak as a mid level short wave pushes east
toward our region. This should help keep a decent low level
convergent boundary going through daybreak along the I-70
corridor. In addition, we should also see pcpn begin to fill in
across southern portions of our area in advance of the short
wave. Near record PWs for this time of year of around 1.5
inches will continue to lead to periods of locally heavy rain.
With saturated soils across the region, will continue with the
current FFA through noon. Despite mainly elevated instabilities,
we will also continue to see a low end severe threat this
morning given the strong wind fields aloft.

The cold front will move into our far northwest by late morning
and the push southeast across the remainder of our area through
this afternoon. Ahead of the front, we will see a continued
chance of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms into this
afternoon. Expect the best chance for any thunderstorms with
this to be in a narrow corridor along and just ahead of the
front heading into this afternoon. With continued strong wind
fields aloft, there will also be a low end conditional severe
threat for damaging winds this afternoon.

After a warm start this morning, we will see falling temps
develop from the northwest through the day as the cold front
moves through.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure will build down across the Great Lakes
tonight through Saturday. Some lingering low level moisture will
likely keep skies partly to mostly cloudy tonight before we
start to see a decreasing cloud trend on Saturday. Lows tonight
will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s with highs on Saturday
ranging from the upper 30s north to the mid 40s in the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A fairly progressive zonal flow pattern will set up through
early to mid next week. This will allow for a series of mid
level short waves to move quickly east across the CONUS
through the long term period. The first one will affect our
region late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night and into early
Monday. Thermal profiles get close to cold enough across our
northwest to support perhaps a rain snow mix across our
northwest Sunday night, but think the boundary layer may stay
just warm enough to keep pcpn all rain. We will then get into a
brief lull in the pcpn for later Monday into Monday night
before the next chance of pcpn overspreads the region Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 40s to
lower 50s with temperatures then slowly moderating through mid
week. Will also hang on to some lower end pops for showers on
Thursday as it looks like some additional short wave energy may
push east into the region late in the period.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Axis of showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue to
push east along the I70 corridor through the predawn hours,
affecting the northern TAF sites. To the south of this, activity
looks to be more scattered, but do expect to see some increase
in pcpn coverage through the pre dawn hours as the main mid
level short wave pushes east toward our area. In areas of more
widespread pcpn, expect to see mainly MVFR cigs and vsbys along
with some localized IFR conditions. LLWS will also persist
through daybreak.

The main pcpn should shift off to the east through mid morning.
However, as a cold front pushes southeast through the region,
we could see a few hour period of shower and possibly
thunderstorm redevelopment from late morning through mid
afternoon. Pcpn should taper off from northwest to southeast as
the cold front moves through. Cigs are expected to lift back
into VFR category through the afternoon.

Southwest winds will also remain gusty with wind gusts in the 25
to 35 knot range possible this morning into early afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for OHZ045-046-051>056-
     060>065-070>072-077>080.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for KYZ089>097.
IN...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for INZ058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...JGL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
424 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>097-OHZ053>055-061>064-070>072-077>080-
211000-
Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Butler-Warren-
Clinton-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-
424 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northern
Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West
Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible through this
morning. The primary threat will be damaging wind. Wind gusts to 45
mph will also be possible outside of thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

INZ050-KYZ098>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>044-073-074-081-082-088-211000-
Wayne-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-
Logan-Ross-Hocking-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
424 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central
Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this morning. Heavy rain
can be expected at times, leading to a localized flooding threat.
Wind gusts to 45 mph will also be possible outside of thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

INZ058-059-OHZ045-046-051-052-056-060-065-211000-
Fayette IN-Union IN-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Licking-Preble-
Fairfield-
424 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible through this
morning. The primary threat will be damaging wind. Wind gusts to 45
mph will also be possible outside of thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
412 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020

OHZ053-054-062-063-200845-
Fayette OH-Madison OH-Clark OH-Greene OH-
412 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...
SOUTHEASTERN CLARK...NORTHEASTERN GREENE AND SOUTHWESTERN MADISON
COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM EDT...

At 412 AM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Wilberforce, moving east at 45 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...
One half inch diameter hail...

Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Xenia, London, Yellow Springs, Cedarville, Jamestown,
South Charleston, Jeffersonville, Wilberforce, Lisbon, New Jasper,
Brighton, Lafayette, South Vienna, South Solon, Clifton, Octa,
Newport, Rosemoor and Hustead.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 55 and 60, and between mile
markers 73 and 79.
 I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 66 and 68.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3963 8398 3989 8384 3996 8337 3962 8357
TIME...MOT...LOC 0812Z 258DEG 38KT 3970 8390

Hatzos

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
413 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW LEWISBURG          39.84N 84.55W
03/20/2020                   PREBLE             OH   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER RUNNING OVER WOLF ROAD

&&

NMCGINNI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
415 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SSE EATON             39.70N 84.61W
03/20/2020                   PREBLE             OH   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER RUNNING OVER WANE TRACE ROAD

&&

NMCGINNI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
427 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNE YELLOW SPRINGS    39.83N 83.87W
03/20/2020                   CLARK              OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER ENTERING BUILDING ALONG 68. WATER IS ALSO BLOCKING
            NORTHBOUND LANES OF 68.

&&

NMCGINNI