Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Wilmington, OH

117 
WGUS71 KILN 031312
FFSILN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
912 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020

KYC037-117-OHC025-031322-
/O.EXP.KILN.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-200903T1315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Kenton KY-Campbell KY-Clermont OH-
912 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHERN KENTON...SOUTHERN CAMPBELL
AND SOUTHWESTERN CLERMONT COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 915 AM EDT...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed any
remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3880 8447 3891 8448 3900 8414 3892 8408
      3886 8423 3887 8423 3881 8440

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
450 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue into
early afternoon, primarily across the southeast. Heavy rain will
be possible this morning, mainly along and south of the Ohio
River. Drier and cooler conditions are forecast for Friday and
Saturday under the influence of high pressure. Expect warmer
temperatures by Sunday as the high moves off to the southeast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid level shortwave and associated over the lower Ohio Valley
to track east through the Ohio Valley today. Ahead of this
feature a seasonably strong 35 to 40 KT southwesterly jet will
offer favorable forcing and advect deep tropical moisture north
of and e-w oriented sfc front across central KY. Precipitable
water axis of around 2 inches will lay out across northern KY
into south central Ohio.

As favorable forcing shifts east expect widespread rain over
southern Indiana to pivot across southern Ohio and northern KY
early this morning. HREF indicating rainfall rates up to 2
inches per hour possible. Although flow will allow individual
storms to track northeast at 25 to 30 kts, boundary parallel
flow will result in the potential for training storms. Rainfall
totals of 1 to 3 inches will be possible with locally higher
amounts.

Some of the numerical model solutions pointing to two bands of
heavy rain. One across se Indiana and a second across northern
KY into south central Ohio. Therefore, have expanded the flash
flood watch to include portions of the Cincinnati Tr-state area
and the southern Scioto Valley.

As the s/w and sfc low shift off to the east the pcpn will come
to an end this aftn from west to east.

High Temperatures to range from the mid 80s northwest where
there will be more sunshine to near 80 southeast where best
coverage of pcpn and clouds will exist.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A mid level trough will develop into the Great Lakes with an
associated cold front dropping southeast across ILN/s FA
tonight.This front will advect cooler and drier air into the
region. Have kept a slight chance pop of a shower with this
frontal passage. Low temperatures to range from the mid 50s
north to the mid 60s south.

Surface high pressure to build into the area Friday. This high
will offer cooler and drier weather conditions. Expect Fridays
highs in the mid and upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will be sitting over the Ohio Valley on Saturday as an
upper-level trough starts to recede to the northeast. Highs remain
near seasonal averages with temperatures topping out near 80 and
lows in the upper 50s on Saturday night.

The surface high progresses east of the area on Sunday which will
allow southerly flow to develop as temperatures to continue
moderating into the lower 80s. As temperatures rise, ridging
continues to build over the Ohio Valley. There may be some enhanced
cloud cover during the day as a shortwave moves through, but shower
activity is not expected at this time due to limited moisture and no
instability.

The forecast exhibits a large amount of uncertainty starting on
Sunday night into Monday. The American suite of models (GFS and
operational GEFS) are showing a more amplified pattern than the
European suit of models (ECMWF and EPS). With more amplified flow,
the chance for showers and storms would increase Monday night into
Tuesday as a cold front sags south into the Ohio Valley and stalls.
The European suite instead shows an broader ridge over the area and
cold front nowhere nearby. Thus, limited to no chances for
precipitation would exist. The current forecast reflects this
uncertainty with the flow patter exhibiting only limited chances for
precipitation and high temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80
through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Moisture will increase ahead of slow moving front that
advances north from KY thru the Ohio Valley today. Rain showers
with embedded will overspread the TAF sites early this morning.
The best coverage of rain with CIGS dropping thru MVFR to IFR
cigs at KCVG and KLUK. Have a period of MVFR CIGS at all other
TAF sites developing this morning but can not rule out IFR
conditions in this very moist environment -- especially at KILN.

The main pcpn event to occur between 09z-15z before ending from
west to east by late morning into early afternoon. Expect to
CIGs to improve to VFR fairly rapidly this aftn from west to
east.

An increase in VFR clouds will occur late this evening from the
northwest with the approach of a cold front.

Light/variable winds will become southeasterly early this
morning -- southwesterly by late morning and then westerly by
the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for OHZ081-082-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for KYZ094>100.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
520 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072-
040930-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-
520 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central
Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ077>079-081-082-088-040930-
Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-
Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hamilton-
Clermont-Brown-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
520 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, South Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ073-074-080-040930-
Ross-Hocking-Highland-
520 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Ohio and South
Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Rain and embedded thunderstorms will move across the area this
morning. This rainfall could result in localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.