Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Wilmington, OH

357 
WGUS71 KILN 212301
FFSILN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
701 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

OHC073-212310-
/O.CAN.KILN.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-200822T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hocking OH-
701 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL HOCKING COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3938 8229 3939 8247 3957 8246 3960 8239
      3959 8236 3959 8226

$$

Campbell

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
408 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern will be in place through the
the weekend. A drier pattern works in for the early to middle
portions of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A few showers and storms have started to develop near and south
of the Ohio River. Expect this activity to increase for the
evening and first part of the overnight hours. There will then
be a gradual decrease in coverage late in the overnight hours.
Most of the activity that does form will be southeast of
Interstate 71. Cloud cover will also be higher in this area
while northwest of Dayton expect less cloud cover. With low
level moisture cannot rule out some fog, however confidence was
not high enough to include in the forecast at this time. Went
close to model blend for temperatures overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
during the day on Saturday before diminishing Saturday night.
With the most widespread cloud cover again across the southern
portions of the region, have lower temperatures across the south
and higher temperatures north of Interstate 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A dampened H5 trough will keep scattered showers and storms in the
forecast on Sunday, with better forcing present east of I-71. Still
could see pockets of CAPE in the 1500 - 2000 J/kg range in W Ohio /
E Indy as more breaks in the clouds are expected early in the day,
so slightly increased PoPs in that area. Still expect overall
coverage to be less than Saturday with the weaker forcing in place,
but any storm development could lead to locally heavy rain as weak
shear values (10-15 kts max) decrease moisture transport vectors.

A longwave ridge builds over the region on Monday, giving way to
summer-like conditions in its wake. Temperatures will become more
seasonal by Monday as weak WAA transpires from high pressure in the
Tennessee Valley. Kept precip out of the fa through mid-week, but
will see highs gradually warm up to around 90 by Wednesday.

Highest confidence in precip working its way back into the forecast
is late Thursday into Friday as we see another H5 trough propogate
into the region, coupled with an influence from 2 tropical systems.
TS Laura is forecast to make landfall in the Gulf early Wednesday as
a Hurricane, and TD 14 is forecast to land as a TS in the western
Gulf shortly before Laura. EPS and GEFS model guidance hint at the
potential remnants, more so from Laura, impacting us near the end of
the work week. Likely will see a moisture surge that would increase
PoPs, but overall impact / track of the tropical systems still
remains uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry conditions will start out the TAF period. Scattered showers
and some thunderstorms are starting to develop south of the TAF
sites. KCVG and KLUK have the highest probability of seeing some
of this activity later today and again on Saturday. Due to this
limited any precipitation mention to these two TAF sites.

There are some indications that there will be some low level
moisture and fog formation overnight even with cloud cover.
Have some fog in the TAFs, however did not go as low as some of
the solutions were indicating at this time until a more
pronounced signal becomes apparent.

Winds will be light and less than 10 knots through the TAF
period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...Clark/AR
AVIATION...Novak

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
525 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-220930-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
525 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.