Wind Advisory 4, NWS Wilmington, NC

532 
WWUS72 KILM 242145
NPWILM

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
445 PM EST Thu Dec 24 2020

NCZ105>110-250800-
/O.CON.KILM.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-201225T0800Z/
Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-Inland New Hanover-
Coastal New Hanover-Inland Brunswick-Coastal Brunswick-
Including the cities of Burgaw, Surf City, Wilmington, Masonboro,
Myrtle Grove, Ogden, Carolina Beach, Seagate, 
Boiling Spring Lakes, Leland, Shallotte, Oak Island, Long Beach, 
Southport, and Sunset Beach
445 PM EST Thu Dec 24 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 to 50 mph
  late this afternoon and evening, becoming Southwest 15 to 25 
  mph with gusts up to 30 to 35 mph after midnight.

* WHERE...Inland Pender, Coastal Pender, Coastal Brunswick, 
  Coastal New Hanover, Inland Brunswick and Inland New Hanover 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could result in light weight Holiday 
  Decorations becoming projectiles if not properly secured. Tree 
  limbs and branches could be blown down, along with a few power 
  outages remaining possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially when operating a high 
profile vehicle and also when traveling across bridges and 
overpasses. 

&&

$$
dch

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
639 AM EST Thu Dec 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasingly mild, breezy and humid weather will precede a
strong cold front. The front will bring a chance of severe
thunderstorms later today. By Christmas Day and early on
Saturday, the coldest air of the season will overspread the
region. A slow warming trend is expected into early next week
with seasonably cool temperatures much of the upcoming period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As a strong cold front sweeps across the Carolinas, it will increase
the chances of severe weather this afternoon into the evening with
possible damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.  The synoptic
setting is showing a deep 500 mb trough from the Great Lakes into
Texas. This trough will move into the Ohio Valley by 12 UTC Friday
with a 125 knot Jet moving across the Carolinas late Thursday. At
850 mb, the low-level jet will approach speeds of 50 to 60 knots.

The HREF shows the mean Cape between 500-1000 J/Kg along the coast
with the maximum cape values extending 50 to 75 miles inland. The
SRH range between 200-300 m2/s2. The updraft helicities indicate
most of the updrafts, mainly east of a Little River to western
Pender County.  Chances for a Tornado Watch for late afternoon seem
to be certain. As mentioned earlier, the one unknown impact will be
the marine layer influence of weakening convection along the coast.

Wind will increase by mid-morning and will reach the maximum values
later this afternoon into the evening. South to southwest winds will
increase to 25 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 45 mph outside of the
convection. These wind speeds are just below wind advisory criteria.
After the front/convection moves off the coast, cold air advection
will occur, and a significant cooldown will occur and remain through
next Monday.

Highs are expected to reach into the lower 70s today, and the lows
on Christmas morning will be 32F inland to upper 30s at the coast.
Highs will struggle to make it to 40 inland and the lower 40s on the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An arctic airmass will be in place for the weekend and slowly
modify by the end of the period. There may be some high clouds
that drift across moreso later in the period but certainly no
pops. Not surprisingly temperatures will be below normal the
entire time with lows in the middle 20s with some isolated
colder readings in the usual spots. Highs will struggle to reach
the 40s once again Saturday but should see better moderation
Sunday with lower 50s or so.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The extended period will remain relatively quiet with only a
weak and mostly dry system moving across late Monday. Both the
GFS and ECMWF have been consistent in all but drying out this
system completely. Temperatures will warm up a bit Monday only
to be reset in the wake of the front Tuesday followed by another
modest warmup ahead of the next system well to the west.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mostly VFR across the area for now, though MVFR ceilings have
come in at KFLO due to SHRA. A strong cold front will enter
into the western Carolinas around 18Z Thursday. With
instability, showers and thunderstorms are likely to be in the
area from 18-04Z. LIFR conditions are expected with the
convection. Also the 850mb jet increases to 60kts and low-level
wind shear will be likely with values approaching 50-55kts from
the SSW. Slow clearing is expected after 04Z inland to 05Z at
the coast.

Extended Outlook...VFR, with clearing with strong north winds
Friday. Wind easing Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday:
A strong cold front will quickly approach the coastal
waters today and move off the coast this evening. Winds speeds are
expected to reach Gale Warning conditions with south to southwest
winds of 30 knots and gust of 40 to 45 knots over the waters.  A
squall line will cross the waters this evening, and waterspouts are
possible.

This morning, the wave heights of 4 to 5 feet are expected
to build to 5 to 6 feet in the nearshore waters and 9 to 13 feet  10
to 20 miles off the coast.

Friday Night through Monday:
A westerly flow of 15-20 knots initially will slowly decrease
through the weekend as arctic high pressure drifts slowly to the
east and more than anything modifies. Some residual significant
seas of over six feet will probably keep a Small Craft Advisory
in place for a few hours into early Saturday but otherwise seas
will settle into a 2-4 foot range. Relatively tranquil
conditions are expected next week with only a couple of wind
shifts with seas remaining on the modest side.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Friday for
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...SHK/RH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
353 AM EST Thu Dec 24 2020

AMZ250-252-254-256-250900-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
353 AM EST Thu Dec 24 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

A small craft advisory will likely be required Friday morning
through Saturday morning.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon
and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059-
250900-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-
Inland New Hanover-Coastal New Hanover-Inland Brunswick-
Coastal Brunswick-Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-
Williamsburg-Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown-
Central Horry-Northern Horry-
353 AM EST Thu Dec 24 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon
and evening. Some of these storm may produce damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.