Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
319 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid weather will continue into the weekend with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms as Bermuda High remains
anchored to the east over the Atlantic and trough of low
pressure strengthens to the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Convection to move slowly east through afternoon, weakening or
moving off the coast after 9-10 pm. Low effective shear should keep
the severe threat localized, mainly spotty downburst winds as
downdraft CAPE remains moderately strong through early evening.

Similar day Thursday, isolated to scattered TSTMS, although lack of
upper support may result in late days storms, not firing as early
as today, as short-wave energy approaches the area toward evening.
A 'marginal' risk of excessive rainfall Thursday resides primarily
north and west of our forecast area. Heat indices remain below heat
advisory criteria Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Bermuda high pressure extending over the Southeast coast will
maintain a SW flow of warm and moist air into the weekend. Pcp
water values will be up to 2.4 inches in deep SW flow as mid to
upper trough remains west of area. Shortwave energy will move
along the base of the trough aloft through the Carolinas, to
help enhance convective development along Piedmont trough and
sea breeze boundary, as well as any outflow boundaries that
develop. This should provide a more active day of shwrs/tstms on
Fri.

GFS shows a weak sfc low or reflection of upper trough which
moves off to the northeast pushing trough along or just offshore
by Saturday. A potent shortwave rotating around mid to upper
trough extending down from the Great Lakes will amplify the
trough down through the central CONUS which should allow H5
ridge to build up through the Southeast into the weekend. This
should allow some mid level dry air and subsidence to work its
way in on Saturday. Therefore, convection should be more limited
on Sat, but may remain focused along the coast. May also begin
to see moisture working its way northward from what is now
potential tropical cyclone nine by Sat night, as it tracks
toward the Florida coast. This could affect forecast into the
latter half of the weekend, but for now, too much uncertainty
exists. Max temps will be in the low 90s most places with heat
indices between 100 and 105 both Fri and Sat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Deep mid to upper trough amplified from the Upper Great Lakes down
through the Mississippi Valley will push slowly eastward through
early next week. This will continue to maintain a deep SW flow
over the Southeast coast. Southwest winds become a bit more
southerly as Bermuda High builds back north and west over the
Carolinas. GFS shows increased moisture aligned along the coast,
and we may see moisture from tropical system reaching into our
area as early as Sunday. Overall, the forecast through early
next week will be highly depend on eventual track of a
disturbance moving across the Caribbean, or what is
now Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. It should track around the
Atlantic ridge or get picked up by the mid to upper trough as
it moves toward the east coast. For now, the official NHC
forecast brings it to Florida by early next week. For now,
should see an increase in clouds and pcp through the first half
of next week. High temps will be into the 90s into the weekend
and heat index values should reach over 100 through Sunday.
Temps will drop several degrees early next week due to clouds
and pcp and lowering of H5 heights.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Lots of dense mid cloud will delay convection by an hour or two, but
still expect some decent coverage of storms by around 20Z. The
convection will wane by 23Z, with convective debris overnight.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR expected outside of showers
and thunderstorms that occur each afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorms will be capable of brief periods of IFR/MVFR along
with gusty winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Bumpy conditions upcoming, very nearly advisory winds, 15-20 kt with
a few higher gusts at times. Winds may increase moreso late Thursday
and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed. Mariners should exercise
caution. TSTMs will also be present, mainly at night and early
mornings, and radar updates are encouraged. The swell portion of the
wave spectrum is weak, a foot or less, and seas almost entirely
dominated by bumpy, short-crested wind-seas.

SW flow persists Fri through the weekend, becoming more
southerly on Sunday as ridge builds back north and west.
As trough strengthens and shifts closer to the coast Fri, SW
winds may reach up to 15 to 25 kts and may push seas up above
SCA thresholds Fri into Sat. The forecast early next week will
depend on track and strength of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine
moving across the Caribbean into this weekend. This may produce
a longer period SE swell up to 15 seconds by this weekend.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MJC/RGZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
317 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020

NCZ106-108-110-301930-
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-Coastal Brunswick-
317 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Risk of Rip Currents.

Heat indices will reach between 100 to 103 degrees this afternoon
through early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Elevated rip current and longshore conditions possible Thursday
through Sunday.

Heat Advisory thresholds may be met Saturday.
Otherwise, heat indices will reach above 100 each afternoon through
early evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SCZ054-056-301930-
Coastal Horry-Coastal Georgetown-
317 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Heat indices will reach between 100 to 103 degrees this afternoon
through early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Elevated rip current and longshore conditions possible Thursday
through Sunday.

Heat Advisory thresholds may be met Saturday.
Otherwise, heat indices will reach above 100 each afternoon through
early evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-055-058-059-
301930-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Inland New Hanover-
Inland Brunswick-Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-
Williamsburg-Inland Georgetown-Central Horry-Northern Horry-
317 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered TSTMS could drop visibility below 1/2 mile in heavy
rainfall through 9 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Heat Advisory thresholds may be met Saturday.
Otherwise, heat indices will reach above 100 each afternoon through
early evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

AMZ250-252-254-256-301930-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
317 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Occasional gusts between 20 and 25 knots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Occasional gusts between 20 and 25 knots.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

8

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
405 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020

NCZ105>108-292100-
Inland New Hanover NC-Coastal Pender NC-Inland Pender NC-
Coastal New Hanover NC-
405 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW HANOVER AND
SOUTHEASTERN PENDER COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 405 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Porters Neck, or near Figure Eight Island, moving northeast at 10
mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Burgaw, Rich Inlet, Figure Eight Island, Hampstead, Topsail Beach,
Cape Fear Community College North Campus, Ashton, Rocky Point,
Murrayville, Topsail, Castle Hayne, Bayshore, Scotts Hill, Ogden,
Porters Neck, Woodside and St. Helena.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 7769 3429 7772 3427 7775 3423 7778
      3434 7796 3456 7791 3440 7759
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 214DEG 7KT 3433 7780

SHK