Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
254 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will accompany a frontal passage
today. Cool and dry weather will follow for Friday as high
pressure builds across the region. The high will dominate this
upcoming weekend, resulting in a warming trend across the area.
A cold front will drop south into the Carolinas on Monday and
may linger near or just south through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Previous forecast remains on track for today, with pre-frontal areas
of showers and thunderstorms expected to move W to E across the
area. SPC continues to highlight the area in a Marginal Risk for
severe wx, as a strong southerly low-level jet in association with
an amplifying upr-level trough could lead to damaging winds in the
strongest storms. That said, there's not much in the way of
lightning attm and instability is quite lacking, hence the only
Marginal threat. Also expect gusts up to 30-35 mph ahead of the pcpn
due to the tight pressure gradient. The rain ends from W to E later
today as winds shift to the W.

Dry then for tonight as the cold front pushes offshore. Not much in
the way of CAA behind the front so only expect low temps in the 50s.
Maintained a slight chance of a shower over N/NE areas Fri as the
upper-level trough swings through the area, but moisture will be
limited so the chances are low. High temps around 70 under a partly
cloudy sky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A deep NW flow will develop Fri night and continue through Sat
night as upper trough swings farther off the coast and ridge
begins to build slowly in from the west. Light northerly flow at
the sfc will shift around to the south by Sat night as center
of sfc high pressure moves off the Southeast coast. Overall, the
air mass will be dry, but dewpoints will recover a good 10
degrees as winds shift around becoming south by Sat night. This
will affect overnight lows from down near 50 Fri night to
closer to 60 on Sat night. Afternoon highs on Sat should reach
the mid 70s with plenty of sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Very warm weather to start the week off with temps in the 80s
in deep W-NW flow aloft and increasing southerly return flow
near the sfc. Dry weather will continue with a good amount of
sun on Sunday. By Mon, a northern stream system will help to
flatten the ridge a bit and push a cold front south. This
boundary drops south into the Carolinas on Mon, and may linger
near or just south. May see waves of low pressure develop along
this boundary into midweek maintaining plenty of clouds and
increased chc of pcp through Wed. Temps will drop down around
normal or maybe below if front drops south of area on Tues and
Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions currently in place will quickly lower to MVFR
early this morning, with deteriorating wx expected to arrive in
low clouds and convection ahead of a cold front. A fairly solid
line of showers and embedded thunderstorms should move steadily
east across the Carolinas, arriving at FLO and LBT between
09-11Z, CRE and MYR between 11-12Z, and ILM between 12-13Z. IFR
conditions could last two hours at each airport as this line
moves across the area. In addition, strong south winds gusting
over 30 knots are possible ahead of the front.

Behind the storms this aftn, drier air should eventually scour
out the trailing MVFR stratocumulus, and VFR conditions should
again develop during the afternoon hours.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A Gale Warning remains in effect for frequent gusts of 35 kt ahead
of an approaching cold front. Seas up to 7-9 ft over SC waters, up
to 10-12 ft over NC waters. Strong showers and thunderstorms are
possible with high winds and waterspouts possible. The Gale Warning
will need to be replaced by a Small Craft Advisory later today, with
winds actually weakening behind the front due to weak CAA. W winds
15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt Fri, with 4-6 ft seas.

High pressure will migrate across the Southeast leaving lighter
winds shifting from NW-W to SW by Sun as high shifts farther
off the Southeast coast. Overall expect winds and seas to slowly
drop Fri from near SCA thresholds down to 3 ft or less by Sat
into early Sun, mixing with a longer period SE swell up to 8
seconds.

Winds will increase Sun aftn into Mon as gradient tightens with
approach of a cold front from the northwest. This will lead to
a rise in seas up to 3 to 5 ft by late Sun. A better organized
southwest flow will develop Sunday into Monday as a cold front
drops down from the N-NW. Winds and seas will diminish late Mon.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for SCZ054.
NC...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NCZ106-108-110.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS/RGZ

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
429 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020

SCZ039-055-300900-
Williamsburg SC-Inland Georgetown SC-
429 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHEASTERN WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY
UNTIL 500 AM EDT...

At 429 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Morrisville, or 14 miles southeast of Kingstree, moving northeast at
40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hemingway, Outland, Nesmith, Morrisville, Henry and Stuckey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3357 7970 3378 7949 3378 7944 3380 7943
      3380 7940 3382 7938 3381 7935 3380 7933
      3378 7932 3375 7929 3372 7929 3372 7927
      3371 7928 3350 7961
TIME...MOT...LOC 0829Z 220DEG 34KT 3358 7959

SCALORA

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