Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
336 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
An energetic storm system will bring strong to severe showers
and thunderstorms tonight, before moving off the coast after
midnight tonight. A drying trend with strong west wind can be
expected Friday. Cool high pressure will build in late Friday
and persist through the weekend. A warming trend is expected
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Latest sfc analysis shows 993 mb low pressure centered over WV with
a strong cold front draped to its S. Forecast remains on
track...with the cold front and vigorous mid-level trough
approaching from the W leading to increasing rain chances through
the evening hours. Still expect it to take until very late aftn
western areas, and evening over eastern areas for the large area of
shras/tstms currently over western SC to move into the CWA. SPC
still has the CWA under an Enhanced Risk of severe wx, with main
threats being damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. Heavy rain
expected at times as well, but storm total QPF is not high enough to
warrant a Flash Flood Watch. The rain tapers off from W to E early
Fri morning.

Dry wx then expected for Fri into Fri night along with decreasing
clouds. Main story Fri will be strong gusty winds...up to 35-40 mph,
shy of Wind Advisory criteria but did include mention in the HWO.
Diminishing winds then into Fri night as the pressure gradient
relaxes, also allowing temps to drop into the low-mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The short term offers surface high pressure and weakly curved
cyclonic mid level flow that will be on a downsloping trajectory.
Mixing will be quite shallow and so afternoon highs are slated to be
a few degrees below climatology. A very light southerly wind will
bring seasonable to very slightly warm lows Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Warm advection gets underway aloft on Sunday but once again vertical
mixing will be challenged. Afternoon high temperatures will run
close to 60s for the most part. As stronger surface return flow
kicks in Monday this will no longer be the case despite isentropic
upglide bringing an increase in cloud cover. Rain chances will then
soon follow, ramping up Monday night. Weather remains similarly warm
and unsettled on Tuesday as a cold front approaches, driven by a mid
level impulse that passes by well to our north. Rain chances
decrease slightly on Wednesday as the boundary sags to our north but
it surges back to the north on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly MVFR cigs to start off the 18Z TAF period, with a dry
aftn expected before strong to severe thunderstorms possibly
affect the TAF sites this evening. Also included low-level wind
shear groups, with winds increasing to 60 kt later today and
tonight. The line of storms will reach the KFLO to KLBT
corridor late aftn, migrating east to coastal terminals by mid-
late evening. The squall line and wind shear will both make
flight conditions very difficult, with surface wind gusts to 50
kt possible as this line translates across the area. The rain
clears the coast overnight, with dry conditions and VFR
expected for Fri.

Extended Outlook...VFR and dry over the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
A Gale Warning remains in effect over all coastal waters through
late aftn Friday, due to 35-40 kt gusts, both ahead of and behind a
cold front crossing the area late tonight. Seas up to 10-12 out 20
nm, 4-7 ft nearshore. Quickly improving marine conditions then for
Fri night as sfc high pressure builds in from the W and the pressure
gradient relaxes over the local area.

Wind fields all but collapse on Saturday as high pressure
builds overhead. This should yield a relatively rare set of
light and variable winds. Seas will not be running minimal
however, still settling from the long period of agitation
associated with and following the Thursday storm system. Return
flow/SW winds become established on Monday and increase in
speed. This allows seas to build but not to advisory levels. An
approaching cold front should veer the winds heading into
Tuesday. At this time some guidance is building seas into the
4-6 ft range.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Strong offshore wind Friday may cause abnormally low tides
during the low tide cycles.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MJC

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
413 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

SCZ017-023-062215-
Marlboro SC-Darlington SC-
413 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHERN DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EST...

At 412 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Hoffman to 14 miles north of Clyde.
Movement was east at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Bennettsville, Hartsville, Mccoll, North Hartsville, Dovesville,
Lydia, Auburn, Swift Creek, Wallace, Clyde, Oats, Chavistown, Floyd,
Kellytown, Society Hill, Tatum and Carolina Pines Regional Medical
Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 3449 8005 3450 7998 3449 7996 3449 7988
      3455 7982 3461 7981 3461 7978 3465 7980
      3469 7987 3474 7989 3477 7993 3481 7993
      3481 7968 3465 7949 3420 8011 3428 8013
      3432 8017 3436 8018 3433 8024 3437 8029
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 276DEG 23KT 3505 7963 3458 8028

21