Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
251 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue this weekend before an
upper-level ridge brings warm and dry weather to the area on Monday
and Tuesday. Another upper-level disturbance will bring a good
chance of thunderstorm to the area by mid-week. Warm and humid
conditions return late next week and into the weekend with a slight
chance of afternoon storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level low that has brought days worth of cooler
temperatures and wet weather is finally starting to move eastward as
another trough of low pressure to the west is dislodging the upper
low over the Carolinas.  As of the early afternoon, the upper trough
base was well to the east and should end the widespread
precipitation threat.  The latest high resolution model guidance has
depicted some storm development activity along the sea breeze
boundary that has already started along coastal communities, and may
be enough lift to tap into instability aloft to generate
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

A weak high pressure system will arrive tonight into Sunday bringing
mostly clear skies, but the weak stability may allow for some
chances for isolated development of showers and thunderstorms
providing brief heavy downpours of rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A low amplitude ridge will maintain dry and above normal
temperatures on Monday and Tuesday. A few showers are possible along
the Piedmont trough and points inland as a weak shortwave makes its
way through the Ohio River Valley Monday night into Tuesday. We will
keep mention of a slight chance of showers and storms due to the
possibility of a stray thunderstorm during peak heating on both
days. An upper trough will begin to approach the area on Tuesday
evening and this is likely to lead to increasing rain chances into
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper-trough will approach the area on Wednesday. As a result,
we are likely to see a decent chance of showers on Wednesday
afternoon with the help of peak heating. Thunder chances
continue on Thursday with a similar pattern taking shape. Garden
variety thunderstorms should become widespread in coverage with
a limited severe threat. Behind the trough, a weak upper-ridge
will again develop with limited rain chances and warming
temperatures expected on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper trough will be the impetus for scattered convection to
develop, mainly by mid to late afternoon. The coverage of storms is
a bit uncertain, but scattered will be the best description. Brief
heavy downpours are possible. Most of the convection will end by
00Z, with convective debris overnight. There could be some pockets
of fog in places that had convection.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR except for scattered afternoon and
evening SHRA/TSRA Saturday. Patchy fog also possible 08-13Z each
day. Rain/storm chances generally decrease by Sunday, so VFR will be
even more consistent through the middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Seas between 2 and 3 feet from the southeast at 6 to 8 seconds
over the next 36 hours with south winds shifting to the
southwest between 10 and 15 kts. Wind waves Sunday out of the
southwest at 4 seconds while southeast swell continues around 8
seconds. Thunderstorms could develop each afternoon and evening,
which could bring locally higher winds and waves.

High pressure offshore and a weak upper-level ridge will maintain
our typical SW winds at 10-15 knots Monday and Tuesday. An upper-
level trough will approach the area on Wednesday and lead to an
increasing gradient across the area. Winds are likely to increase to
15-20 knots, just below SCA criteria. Seas will stay below
threshold at 3-5 feet. This trough will also bring the
possibility of showers and storms on Wednesday and Thursday. A
weak front will pass north of the area with the upper trough
moving offshore on Friday. WSW winds prevail through early next
weekend at 10-15 knots with seas 2-4 feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Sunday for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MCK
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MCK/21

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