River Flood Warning 82, NWS Wilmington, NC

385 
WGUS82 KILM 122010
FLSILM

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
310 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in South 
Carolina...

  Great Pee Dee River At Pee Dee affecting Marion and Florence 
  Counties.

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in South 
Carolina...

  Black River At Kingstree affecting Williamsburg County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in South 
Carolina...North Carolina...

  Waccamaw River At Conway affecting Horry County.

  Black Creek At Quinby affecting Florence and Darlington Counties.

  Cape Fear River At William O Huske Lock And Dam 3 affecting 
  Bladen and Cumberland Counties.

  Cape Fear River At Elizabethtown affecting Bladen County.

  Northeast Cape Fear River Near Burgaw affecting Pender County.

  Lumber River Near Lumberton affecting Robeson County.

  Lumber River 1 SE Lumber River at Nichols affecting Dillon, Horry 
  and Marion Counties.

  Little Pee Dee River At Galivants Ferry affecting Horry and 
  Marion Counties.

For the Cape Fear River...including William O Huske Lock And Dam 3, 
Elizabethtown, Lock And Dam 1...Minor flooding is forecast.
For the Northeast Cape Fear River...including Burgaw...Moderate 
flooding is forecast.
For the Lumber River...including Lumberton Usgs Gage, Lumber River 
at Nichols, Pembroke, Maxton, Lumberton, Boardman...Moderate 
flooding is forecast.
For the Little Pee Dee River...including Galivants Ferry...Minor 
flooding is forecast.
For the Waccamaw River...including Above Conway, Aiw At old Hwy 544 
At Socastee, Conway, Freeland, Longs...Minor flooding is forecast.
For the Great Pee Dee River...including Pee Dee...Moderate flooding 
is forecast.
For the Black Creek...including Quinby...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.
php?wfo=ilm

The next statement will be issued by this evening.

&&


SCC089-122115-
/O.CAN.KILM.FL.W.0082.201114T1030Z-201112T2010Z/
/KINS1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
310 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...The Flood Warning for the Black River At Kingstree has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Black River At Kingstree.
* At 3:00 PM EST Thursday the stage was 7.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 9.5 feet 
  Saturday evening.

&&

LAT...LON 3372 7984 3367 7980 3361 7973 3354 7979
      3359 7987 3367 7994

$$

SCC031-041-131415-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0075.201113T0436Z-201118T0000Z/
/BCRS1.1.ER.201113T0436Z.201114T1800Z.201117T1200Z.NO/
310 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until Tuesday evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Black Creek At Quinby.
* From this evening to Tuesday evening.
* At 3:00 PM EST Thursday the stage was 8.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late 
  this evening to a crest of 14.1 feet early Saturday afternoon. It 
  will then fall below flood stage Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet, Floodwaters surround the majority of homes 
  on East Black Creek Road, Creekside Drive and Crooked Creek Drive 
  and all residents are isolated due to the floodwaters. Water is 
  lapping at the foundations of all ground level homes in these 
  areas.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 7979 3429 7973 3431 7967 3422 7963
      3422 7975 3428 7984

$$

SCC051-131415-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0080.201113T2200Z-201117T1800Z/
/CNWS1.1.ER.201113T2200Z.201114T1800Z.201117T0600Z.NO/
310 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Tuesday 
afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Waccamaw River At Conway.
* From Friday afternoon to Tuesday afternoon.
* At 2:15 PM EST Thursday the stage was 9.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage 
  tomorrow afternoon to a crest of 11.9 feet early Saturday 
  afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage early Tuesday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet, Flooding will worsen in the Lees Landing, 
  Riverfront South, Pitch Landing and Savannah Bluff communities. 
  Flood waters will begin to affect homes north of Conway on 
  Riverside Drive. Swamps will be heavily flooded.

&&

LAT...LON 3390 7892 3382 7886 3379 7900 3371 7900
      3371 7911 3385 7908

$$

SCC041-067-131415-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0078.201114T0142Z-000000T0000Z/
/PDES1.2.ER.201114T0142Z.201117T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
310 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until further notice...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Great Pee Dee River At Pee Dee.
* From Friday evening until further notice.
* At 2:00 PM EST Thursday the stage was 16.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage 
  tomorrow evening and continue rising to 23.4 feet early Tuesday 
  afternoon. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet, Flooding will affect swamp and timberlands 
  while also disrupting logging operations. Operations will likely 
  cease and equipment not previously moved will remain trapped. Some 
  farmland will have minor flooding especially around Britton Neck.

&&

LAT...LON 3424 7962 3424 7950 3400 7945 3385 7931
      3385 7944 3397 7956

$$

NCC155-131415-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LBRN7.2.ER.201112T1300Z.201113T1200Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
310 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Lumber River Near Lumberton.
* Until further notice.
* At 12:42 PM EST Thursday the stage was 13.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 12:42 PM EST Thursday was 13.6 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 16.5 feet 
  tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet, Flooding worsens in the Pines and Coxs Pond 
  areas as well as along River Road. Flooding also worsens between 
  the Pepsi plant and the river on the east side of town. In 
  addition, Chickenfoot Road, Hestertown Road and Noir Street will 
  have flood waters on them.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 7916 3468 7903 3457 7891 3452 7898
      3459 7908 3458 7915

$$

NCC017-051-131415-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0076.201113T0216Z-000000T0000Z/
/STPN7.1.ER.201113T0216Z.201115T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
310 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cape Fear River At William O Huske Lock And Dam 3.
* From this evening until further notice.
* At 2:00 PM EST Thursday the stage was 37.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 42.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late 
  this evening and continue rising to a crest of 54.3 feet early 
  Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 55.0 feet, Extensive lowland flooding will occur along 
  the river.  A few buildings along the river and its tributaries 
  upstream and downstream of the gage will be isolated by flood 
  waters.  The lower part of the USGS well house will be flooded.

&&

LAT...LON 3495 7887 3495 7875 3478 7873 3472 7865
      3465 7872 3474 7884

$$

NCC017-131415-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0077.201113T1305Z-000000T0000Z/
/ELZN7.1.ER.201113T1305Z.201116T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
310 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cape Fear River At Elizabethtown.
* From Friday morning until further notice.
* There is no current observed data.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage 
  tomorrow morning and continue rising to a crest of 34.3 feet 
  Monday morning.
* Impact...At 35.0 feet, Flood waters will reach the home of the 
  lockmaster.  Flood waters may begin to affect Owen Hill Road near 
  Bakers Creek.   Dozens of buildings may be isolated or flooded 
  along the river both upstream and downstream of Elizabethtown.  
  However, most of are in areas between Owen Hill Road and the river 
  as well as NC Route 53 and the river west of U.S. route 701.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 7865 3465 7852 3456 7838 3450 7847
      3459 7859 3465 7872

$$

SCC051-067-131415-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0079.201113T1800Z-000000T0000Z/
/GALS1.1.ER.201113T1800Z.201117T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
310 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Little Pee Dee River At Galivants Ferry.
* From Friday afternoon until further notice.
* At 3:00 PM EST Thursday the stage was 7.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage early 
  tomorrow afternoon and continue rising to 10.9 feet Tuesday 
  morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet, Flood waters will continue to rise in the 
  Fork Retch community located near Nichols. Flood waters will begin 
  to affect some homes at Fork Retch. Swampland flooding will 
  increase.

&&

LAT...LON 3422 7920 3419 7909 3404 7920 3397 7928
      3400 7938 3409 7930

$$

NCC141-131415-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0081.201114T0300Z-000000T0000Z/
/BGWN7.2.ER.201114T0300Z.201115T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
310 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Northeast Cape Fear River Near Burgaw.
* From Friday evening until further notice.
* At 2:30 PM EST Thursday the stage was 4.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late 
  tomorrow evening and continue rising to a crest of 14.3 feet early 
  Sunday afternoon.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet, Floodwaters cause portions of Shaw Highway 
  to be closed between Carl Meeks Road and Lillington Lane. White 
  Stocking Road is also closed from Chorley Road to Mack Williams 
  Lane. Flooding worsens on Highways 210 and 53 but roads remain 
  open.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 7798 3472 7786 3460 7776 3445 7779
      3444 7788 3457 7788

$$

SCC033-051-067-131415-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0083.201114T1800Z-000000T0000Z/
/NICS1.1.ER.201114T1800Z.201117T1200Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
310 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Lumber River 1 SE Lumber River at Nichols.
* From Saturday afternoon until further notice.
* At 3:00 PM EST Thursday the stage was 16.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage early 
  Saturday afternoon and continue rising to 21.3 feet Tuesday 
  morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet, Flooding worsens along River Road and 
  begins along Drowning Creek Drive.

&&

LAT...LON 3425 7916 3425 7909 3421 7911 3417 7914
      3417 7920 3421 7917

$$

MCK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1002 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy rainfall is expected today as ETA crosses Florida to the
Atlantic. The heaviest rain will move offshore tonight, with a
drying trend expected on Friday, followed by cooler air over the
weekend. Seasonably cool temperatures are expected much of next
week behind a Sunday night cold front.

&&

.UPDATE...
Really no changes to the forecast this morning. A more
concentrated area of heavy rainfall is just moving into the
western areas of the CWA and is expected to move offshore by
later this evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dangerous flash flooding potential front-stage today, as the
ground is becoming primed with antecedent water early this
morning prior to the main show later today, where an additional
2.5-5 inches of rain is expected, as Eta's rain-loaded airmass
is drawn NNE across NE SC and SE NC, A 'Flash Flood Watch' is in
effect for the region today.

Dual Pol Instantaneous rain-rates showing average 2.5 inch per hour
rates in heavy showers, with isolated pockets between 3-4 inches per
hour. These rates can be expected later today as the primary swath
traverses our county warning area. Rates will be variable in a 30-35
kt steering flow.

GOES precipitable water shows values near 2 inches spreading into
region. The moderately swift convective flow will be capable of
laying down strong gusts near strong showers or isolated TSTMS, and
the SPC has maintained a marginal risk, with low level helicity
suggesting a non-zero tornado threat, mainly late morning through
afternoon.

Main QPF axis to edge offshore tonight, showers lingering Friday but
not a great deal of additional rainfall anticipated, then abrupt
full drying late Friday as a change of air mass overspreads the
region with temperature and absolute humidity dropping.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A welcome rain-free period as cooler and drier high pressure build
in from the north behind cold front/Eta in a zonal mid level flow
regime. Sky cover will be minimal and Saturday daytime highs very
near to their climatological normals for the first time in over a
week. A little bit of vertical mixing both nights on the other hand
will keep low temperatures a bit elevated above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The airmass from earlier in the week streams back in from the south
for one more day as its parent high progresses east off the New
England coast. The warmth will be short-lived this time as a more
robust front quickly approaches from the northwest. Isolated showers
are tough to rule out as the moisture moves ashore but with the lack
of any forcing they will be just that. And with the moisture return
pretty limited the FROPA itself will not bring any meaningful rain
chances Sunday night. Then it's back to seasonable temperatures by
Monday as a large area of high pressure builds in. This high will be
driven by a very broad low amplitude mid level trough in the Great
Lakes. Sunny and seasonable weather will round out the period in
neutral to weak cold low level advection and northwesterly flow
aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Difficult flight conditions, as heavy rain and Eta moisture
spur IFR ceilings and visibility today. Winds mainly SSE this
TAF cycle 6-13kts becoming NE 8-12kts by tonight, with heavy
rainfall moving offshore after 03-04Z. IFR ceilings may linger
through the end of the period.

Extended Outlook...Inclement weather will continue through
Friday with showers and MVFR/IFR conditions. Improvement on
Saturday as drying and cooling arrive.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Upgraded to Gale as the very outer wind field
of Eta brings gusts up to 35 kt across our outer waters late
today and tonight. In addition, compromised visibility in heavy
rain is expected this morning and again this evening. S-SE wave
energy will dominate at around 8 seconds, but an added wind-sea
layer will form as NE winds increase tonight into Friday,
making conditions even more difficult in small craft navigation,
but heavy rain should shift east of the 0-20 nm waters during
Friday. Gusts to 35 kt outer waters should be expected.

Friday night through Monday...Northerly winds abate
and veer as high pressure to our north progresses eastward.
Additionally what's left of Eta will be pulling away to the
northeast. An advisory may linger along the shoal/AMZ 252 but
the 6 ft seas appear to drop out of most other zones. As the
high continues to progress so too does the veering of our wind
Saturday night into Sunday, eventually turning to the south.
This southerly flow will pick up in speed later in the day and
Sunday night ahead of a healthy cold front. Northerly winds
behind the boundary slated for Monday but no big surge of high
pressure so wind speeds will not change much. Wave heights
likely change little as well though the sharp direction change
will steepen wave faces as the dominant period shortens.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for SCZ017-023-024-032-
     033-039-054>056-058-059.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Friday for
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SHK
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...ILM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
603 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

AMZ250-252-254-256-131115-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
603 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A Small Craft Advisory could linger into early Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ087-096-099-105-106-108>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-
058-059-131115-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-
Coastal New Hanover-Inland Brunswick-Coastal Brunswick-Marlboro-
Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-Coastal Horry-
Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown-Central Horry-Northern Horry-
603 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ107-131115-
Inland New Hanover-
603 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Minor tidal flooding may prevail for several more days along the
lower Cape Fear river.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

8

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1127 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

SCZ033-054>056-058-121715-
Marion SC-Coastal Georgetown SC-Coastal Horry SC-
Inland Georgetown SC-Central Horry SC-
1127 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR CENTRAL GEORGETOWN...SOUTHWESTERN
HORRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL MARION COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM EST...

At 1126 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Oatland, or 8 miles north of Georgetown, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Georgetown, Socastee, Dongola, Plantersville, Graves, Yauhannah,
Bucksville, Oatland, Bucksport and Georgetown Memorial Hospital.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3347 7952 3384 7923 3371 7899 3332 7928
TIME...MOT...LOC 1626Z 209DEG 34KT 3349 7933

VAO