Alert archive / North Carolina / River Flood Warnings in 2020

River Flood Warning 41, NWS Wilmington, NC

May 27, 2020Robeson County, North Carolina

NWS Wilmington, NC issued this river flood warning at May 27, 2020, 9:13 PM EDT for Robeson County, North Carolina. It was in force for 13 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 27, 2020, 9:13 PM EDT (01:13 UTC)
Expired
May 28, 2020, 10:40 AM EDT
In force
13 hr
Issued by
NWS Wilmington, NC
Flood severity
Minor

County Robeson County, NC

The radar

The Wilmington radar (KLTX), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Lumber River at Lumberton West 5th Street (LUMN7). The gauge peaked at 14.22 ft at May 29, 2020, 7:00 AM EDT.

actionminormoderatemajor1012141605/2805/29
Action stage
11 ft
Minor stage
13 ft
Moderate stage
16 ft
Major stage
17 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02134170, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

439 
WGUS42 KILM 280113
FLWILM
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
913 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

...The National Weather Service in Wilmington NC has issued a Flood Warning for 
the following rivers in North Carolina...South Carolina...

  Lumber At Lumberton Usgs Gage affecting Robeson County
  Waccamaw At Conway affecting Horry County

  Cape Fear At William O Huske Lock And Dam 3 affecting Bladen and Cumberland 
  Counties
  Lumber Near Lumberton affecting Robeson County
  Little Pee Dee At Galivants Ferry affecting Horry and Marion Counties
  Great Pee Dee At Pee Dee affecting Florence and Marion Counties
  Black Creek At Quinby affecting Darlington and Florence Counties

  Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw affecting Pender County
  Lynches At Effingham affecting Florence County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People with interests along the river should take the necessary precautions to 
protect life and property from the flood waters.

Additional information is available on our website at weather.gov/ilm under the 
"Rivers and Lakes" link.

&&

NCC017-051-281712-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/STPN7.1.ER.200522T0806Z.200525T0100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
913 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Cape Fear At William O Huske Lock And Dam 3.
* until further notice.
* At  8:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 43.37 feet.
* Flood stage is 42.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 46.0 feet by Sunday morning 
  then begin falling.
* Impact...At 45.0 feet...Flood waters will affect areas along the left bank of 
  the river with some minor overflow along the right bank.

&&

LAT...LON 3495 7887 3495 7875 3478 7874 3472 7865
          3465 7872 3474 7884         

$$

NCC141-281712-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-200529T1800Z/
/BGWN7.1.ER.200524T1737Z.200526T1330Z.200529T0600Z.NO/
913 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw.
* until Friday afternoon.
* At  8:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 10.73 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by early 
  Friday morning.
* Impact...At 10.5 feet...Flood waters cause minor flooding of Croomsbridge Road 
  and Old Maple Hill Road. Some roads in River Bend and River Birch subdivsions 
  become impassable.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 7798 3472 7786 3460 7776 3445 7779
          3444 7788 3457 7788         

$$

NCC155-281712-
/O.NEW.KILM.FL.W.0041.200528T0113Z-000000T0000Z/
/LUMN7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.200528T0045Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
913 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

The National Weather Service in Wilmington NC has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Lumber At Lumberton Usgs Gage.
* until further notice.
* At  8:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 13.79 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Impact...At 14.5 feet...Flood waters will inundate much of Stephenson Park on 
  Riverside Drive.  Flooding worsens on the river side of the levee in Luther 
  Britt Park. Minor flooding of yards occurs in the Pines Area and between the 
  Pepsi plant and the river on the east side of Lumberton. 

&&

LAT...LON


$$

NCC155-281712-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LBRN7.1.ER.200522T0113Z.200529T1800Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
913 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Lumber Near Lumberton.
* until further notice.
* At  7:34 PM Wednesday the stage was 14.76 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 15.4 feet by Friday evening 
  then begin falling.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Flood waters will affect yards in the Pines area, Coxs 
  Pond area, and along River Road. Additional residential property will be 
  affected between the Pepsi plant and the river on the east side of Lumberton.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 7916 3468 7903 3457 7891 3452 7899
          3459 7908 3458 7915         

$$

SCC051-067-281712-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/GALS1.1.ER.200527T1207Z.200531T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
913 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Little Pee Dee At Galivants Ferry.
* until further notice.
* At  9:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 9.22 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 9.7 feet by early Monday 
  morning then begin falling.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Flood waters will begin to affect residential yards in 
  the Fork Retch community upstream of Galivants Ferry near the town of Nichols.
  Swampland flooding becomes noticeable and natural boat landings will be 
  flooded.

&&

LAT...LON 3423 7921 3419 7910 3405 7920 3398 7928
          3400 7938 3409 7930         

$$

SCC051-281712-
/O.NEW.KILM.FL.W.0042.200602T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CNWS1.1.ER.200602T0000Z.200602T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
913 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

The National Weather Service in Wilmington NC has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Waccamaw At Conway.
* from Monday evening until further notice.
* At  8:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 9.06 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage Monday evening.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Water will begin to cause minor flooding of yards and a
  few roads in the Lees Landing, Pitch Landing, Savannah Bluff, and Riverfront 
  South communities. Overflow of vast uninhabited swamp and natural boat 
  landings will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3391 7892 3382 7886 3379 7900 3371 7900
          3371 7911 3385 7908         

$$

SCC041-067-281712-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PDES1.2.ER.200522T0130Z.200527T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
913 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Great Pee Dee At Pee Dee.
* until further notice.
* At  9:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 27.73 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 26.6 feet by Friday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet...There will be extensive flooding of timber land and 
  farm land along the river. Access roads may be damaged by the flood waters and
  operations at industrial plants along the river will be affected.

&&

LAT...LON 3424 7962 3424 7950 3400 7945 3385 7932
          3385 7944 3398 7957         

$$

SCC031-041-281712-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BCRS1.1.ER.200521T0037Z.200525T0515Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
913 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Black Creek At Quinby.
* until further notice.
* At  9:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 13.15 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 14.3 feet by Friday evening 
  then begin falling.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Floodwaters surround the majority of homes on East 
  Black Creek Road, Creekside Drive and Crooked Creek Drive and all residents 
  are isolated due to the floodwaters. Water is lapping at the foundations of 
  all ground level homes in these areas.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 7979 3429 7973 3431 7967 3423 7963
          3422 7975 3428 7984         

$$

SCC041-281712-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/EFFS1.2.ER.200525T1342Z.200528T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
913 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Lynches At Effingham.
* until further notice.
* At  9:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 16.66 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 17.1 feet by tomorrow 
  evening then begin falling.
* Impact...At 17.5 feet...Extensive flooding will occur along the river. In 
  addition, flood waters will affect some residential areas up stream near the 
  Sumter County line.

&&

LAT...LON 3410 7974 3396 7963 3393 7974 3398 7976
          3394 7983 3403 7986         

$$
2 follow-up statements
485 
WGUS82 KILM 280658
FLSILM
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
258 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers...

  Cape Fear At William O Huske Lock And Dam 3 affecting Bladen and Cumberland 
  Counties NC
  Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw affecting Pender County NC
  Lumber At Lumberton Usgs Gage affecting Robeson County NC
  Lumber Near Lumberton affecting Robeson County NC
  Little Pee Dee At Galivants Ferry affecting Horry and Marion Counties SC
  Waccamaw At Conway affecting Horry County SC
  Great Pee Dee At Pee Dee affecting Florence and Marion Counties SC
  Black Creek At Quinby affecting Darlington and Florence Counties SC
  Lynches At Effingham affecting Florence County SC

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People with interests along the river should take the necessary precautions to 
protect life and property from the flood waters.

Additional information is available on our website at weather.gov/ilm under the 
"Rivers and Lakes" link.

&&

NCC017-051-282258-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/STPN7.1.ER.200522T0806Z.200525T0100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
258 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cape Fear At William O Huske Lock And Dam 3.
* until further notice.
* At  2:00 AM Thursday the stage was 42.94 feet.
* Flood stage is 42.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 46.0 feet by Sunday morning 
  then begin falling.
* Impact...At 45.0 feet...Flood waters will affect areas along the left bank of 
  the river with some minor overflow along the right bank.

&&

LAT...LON 3495 7887 3495 7875 3478 7874 3472 7865
          3465 7872 3474 7884         

$$

NCC141-282258-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-200529T1800Z/
/BGWN7.1.ER.200524T1737Z.200526T1330Z.200529T0600Z.NO/
258 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw.
* until Friday afternoon.
* At  2:30 AM Thursday the stage was 10.60 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall and get below flood stage by just 
  after midnight tonight.
* Impact...At 10.5 feet...Flood waters cause minor flooding of Croomsbridge Road 
  and Old Maple Hill Road. Some roads in River Bend and River Birch subdivsions 
  become impassable.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 7798 3472 7786 3460 7776 3445 7779
          3444 7788 3457 7788         

$$

NCC155-282258-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LUMN7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.200528T0545Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
258 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Lumber At Lumberton Usgs Gage.
* until further notice.
* At  1:45 AM Thursday the stage was 13.87 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Impact...At 14.5 feet...Flood waters will inundate much of Stephenson Park on 
  Riverside Drive.  Flooding worsens on the river side of the levee in Luther 
  Britt Park. Minor flooding of yards occurs in the Pines Area and between the 
  Pepsi plant and the river on the east side of Lumberton. 

&&

LAT...LON


$$

NCC155-282258-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LBRN7.1.ER.200522T0113Z.200530T0600Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
258 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Lumber Near Lumberton.
* until further notice.
* At  1:40 AM Thursday the stage was 14.91 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 15.6 feet by early Saturday 
  morning then begin falling.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Flooding worsens in the Pines and Coxs Pond areas as 
  well as along River Road. Flooding also worsens between the Pepsi plant and 
  the river on the east side of town. In addition, Chickenfoot Road, Hestertown 
  Road and Noir Street will have flood waters on them.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 7916 3468 7903 3457 7891 3452 7899
          3459 7908 3458 7915         

$$

SCC051-067-282258-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/GALS1.1.ER.200527T1207Z.200601T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
258 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Little Pee Dee At Galivants Ferry.
* until further notice.
* At  2:00 AM Thursday the stage was 9.27 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 9.9 feet by Monday morning. 
  Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Flood waters will begin to affect residential yards in 
  the Fork Retch community upstream of Galivants Ferry near the town of Nichols.
  Swampland flooding becomes noticeable and natural boat landings will be 
  flooded.

&&

LAT...LON 3423 7921 3419 7910 3405 7920 3398 7928
          3400 7938 3409 7930         

$$

SCC051-282258-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0042.200602T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CNWS1.1.ER.200602T0000Z.200602T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
258 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Waccamaw At Conway.
* from Monday evening until further notice.
* At  2:15 AM Thursday the stage was 9.13 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage Monday evening.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Water will begin to cause minor flooding of yards and a
  few roads in the Lees Landing, Pitch Landing, Savannah Bluff, and Riverfront 
  South communities. Overflow of vast uninhabited swamp and natural boat 
  landings will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3391 7892 3382 7886 3379 7900 3371 7900
          3371 7911 3385 7908         

$$

SCC041-067-282258-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PDES1.2.ER.200522T0130Z.200527T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
258 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Great Pee Dee At Pee Dee.
* until further notice.
* At  2:00 AM Thursday the stage was 27.60 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 26.6 feet by tomorrow
  morning.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet...There will be extensive flooding of timber land and 
  farm land along the river. Access roads may be damaged by the flood waters and
  operations at industrial plants along the river will be affected.

&&

LAT...LON 3424 7962 3424 7950 3400 7945 3385 7932
          3385 7944 3398 7957         

$$

SCC031-041-282258-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BCRS1.1.ER.200521T0037Z.200525T0515Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
258 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Black Creek At Quinby.
* until further notice.
* At  2:00 AM Thursday the stage was 13.33 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 14.2 feet by tomorrow 
  evening then begin falling.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Floodwaters surround the majority of homes on East 
  Black Creek Road, Creekside Drive and Crooked Creek Drive and all residents 
  are isolated due to the floodwaters. Water is lapping at the foundations of 
  all ground level homes in these areas.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 7979 3429 7973 3431 7967 3423 7963
          3422 7975 3428 7984         

$$

SCC041-282258-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/EFFS1.2.ER.200525T1342Z.200526T1915Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
258 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Lynches At Effingham.
* until further notice.
* At  2:00 AM Thursday the stage was 16.61 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 16.7 feet by this afternoon 
  then begin falling.
* Impact...At 16.5 feet...Water will enter some homes along Roundtree Road. 
  Several homes will be isolated along North Old Georgetown, Roundtree, and 
  Bengause Roads near Effingham and New Hope.

&&

LAT...LON 3410 7974 3396 7963 3393 7974 3398 7976
          3394 7983 3403 7986         

$$
651 
WGUS82 KILM 281440
FLSILM
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1040 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers...

  Lumber At Lumberton Usgs Gage affecting Robeson County NC

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People with interests along the river should take the necessary precautions to 
protect life and property from the flood waters.

Additional information is available on our website at weather.gov/ilm under the 
"Rivers and Lakes" link.

&&

NCC155-281510-
/O.CAN.KILM.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LUMN7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.200528T1345Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1040 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Lumber At Lumberton Usgs Gage.
* This Flood Warning was issued in error.

&&

LAT...LON


$$

IGB

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Wilmington, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at May 27, 6:31 PM EDT, 2 hours 42 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 27, 6:31 PM EDT, 2 hours 42 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
631 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Remnants of Bertha will move out of the area overnight, but
unsettled weather will continue for the remainder of the week,
with lingering moisture, and  a slow-moving disturbance over
the central US. A cold front makes its way into the area this
weekend, bringing cooler and drier weather by early next week.

&&

.UPDATE/...

Gale downgraded to SCA, valid til noon Thursday, mainly seas
in recovery, as gusts taper off below 25 kt into early Thursday.

Signal of heavy rain around Cape Fear, landward into Brunswick
county after 8z, as the ocean becomes and the heat source, and
convergence strengthens as Bermuda high pressure nudges west.

The convective intensity of activity training into Horry county
currently, is expected to weaken through evening, before the
resurgence of more robust convection offshore late tonight. No
changes to the Flood Watch lay-out at this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
At this point, will keep the current FFA going thru 6 am. But will
make no adjustments at this time given the latest 88d estimate
rainfall amounts. I don't see the isolated 8 inch rainfall amounts
that's been proposed in the latest NHC statements but could see
isolated 4 to 5 inch amounts, especially across the ILM SC Counties.
The SSE-S flow from off the Atlantic will continue to push pcpn
onshore well after the small circulation of Bertha pushes north of
the FA during tonight. The question remains how much of a nocturnal
wave of pcpn develops over the warmer Atlantic Waters and is able to
hold together as it pushes northward and onshore. Although current
SSTs are in the 70s, its not a favorable time of year to see this
onshore nocturnal push of pcpn. Nevertheless, will keep the FFA
going but likely will see the removal of most if not all counties
well before the FFA 6am Thu expiration time.

This deep onshore flow will continue thru Thu but begin to veer
slightly to the SSW-SW as the cutoff low over the south central U.S.
begins to open up, as a mid-level s/w trof drops out of south
central Canada. The onshore push of deep moisture, ie. 70s
dewpoints, will aid instability especially during daylight Thu when
some breaks in the clouds will allow insolation to reach the sfc.
Have fcst low 80s for Thu maxes, could possibly go hier based on the
amount of insolation. Onshore flow will keep max temps in the 70s at
the immediate coast. The conveyor of moisture from off the Atlantic
continues Thu night with a mid-level weak s/w possibly aiding
convection well into the night. Overall POPs thru the period will
run 60-80 this afternoon/evening dropping back to moderate chance
tonight and back up to atleast likely Thu into Thu evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper-level trough will approach the area from the west and this
will supply enough forcing energy to produce showers and storms
across the area on Friday. Soundings show near-saturated conditions
in the mid and upper-levels, but shear profiles and low-level lapse
rates should limit the overall severe potential. One or two storms
could become strong and bring strong wind gusts. On Friday night,
additional showers will develop ahead of a surface cold front as the
approaching trough brings large-scale height falls and forcing for
ascent. As the cold front begins to push across the Appalachians, it
will begin to lose a little bit of its forward speed. On Saturday,
the cold front will still be attempting to push through the
Carolinas, leading to continued rain chances through early Saturday
evening. Overnight, we will start to see the development of a drier
and cooler air mass with skies clearing by Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
On Sunday, the upper-level trough continues to dig into the eastern
US. This will provide continued height falls during the day on
Sunday with lingering showers in the morning, mostly clearing during
the day, until afternoon peak heating. Given the upper and mid-level
dry air, at most we could see some light showers along the afternoon
sea breeze. High pressure will build into the area, bringing gusty
winds overnight, flooding much of the eastern US with strong cold
air advection. A cooler and drier air mass will dominate the weather
across the area for much of early next week. Temperatures will
remain below average through Tuesday with a slow moderation
beginning on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2-meter RH near saturation overnight after a wet day, 10-meter
winds easing to 6-8 kt late. This likely to lead to an ugly mix
of mist and stratus, especially inland. At coastal terminals,
periods of +RA possible after 8z from KMYR to KILM through 13z-
14z. Gusty SE winds at the coast up to 23 kt at times. Heating
and moisture Thursday to allow isolated to scattered convection
by Thursday afternoon, at any of the terminals.

Extended Outlook...Unsettled weather continues late Thursday
through Sunday with periods of MVFR/IFR conditions in showers
and t-storms. Winds will be locally higher in and near TSTMs.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale warning to continue south of Little River Inlet, ie. the ILM SC
Waters, thru 6 pm. A SCA will replace the Gale at 6 pm. Overall,
leftover Bertha's circulation to warrant the Gale for the SC waters,
mainly for occasional gusts to 35 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt will occur
over the ILM NC Waters atleast into the evening hours. As Bertha
circulation moves NW-N of the ILM Waters, winds will generally
become SSE-S. The sfc pg will relax-some as Bertha's circulation
moves further away this evening and overnight...resulting in 10-20
kt speeds across the area waters. The synoptic pressure pattern and
gradient will produce mainly southerly winds at 10-15 kt or 10-20 kt
Thu thru Thu night. Seas will generally run initially at 5 to 8 ft,
a few 9 footers possible across the outer waters east of Cape Fear,
then slowly subside to 4 to 7 ft overnight, and below 6 ft SCA
thresholds during daylight Thu, first the ILM SC Waters by midday
and late aftn for the ILM NC Waters. As would expect, short period
wind driven waves at 5 to 7 second periods, will dominate the seas
spectrum. Deep southerly conveyor of Atlantic moisture will
occasionally push convection across the area waters this aftn thru
Thu.

Southerly winds persist on Friday becoming 10-15 knots as the
gradient weakens slightly. Winds will be combined with a 3-4 foot
swell around 7-8 seconds into Saturday. This will make for rough
conditions that will remain below SCA thresholds. On Saturday, winds
veer slightly and become southwesterly ahead of a slow moving cold
front. The cold front pushes through the area on Sunday morning
leading to winds becoming offshore for much of the day. Sunday night
into Monday, winds increase to 15-20 knots out of the NE as cold
high pressure builds into the eastern half of the CONUS. This may
bring brief Small Craft conditions depending on the strength of the
tightening gradient. High pressure dominates the weather pattern
into the middle of next week with an overall weak wind field.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Thursday for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ087-096-099-
     109-110.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EDT
     Thursday for NCZ107.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...DCH
UPDATE...MJC
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...8
MARINE...DCH/21/Colby
Hazardous weather outlook, May 27, 12:22 PM EDT, 8 hours 51 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1222 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

AMZ250-252-281630-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
1222 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

There is also a marginal risk for severe storms, with the main
threats being damaging wind gusts and isolated waterspouts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

AMZ254-256-281630-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
1222 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

Small Craft advisory will follow the Gale at 6 pm and continue thru
7 am Thu.

There is also a marginal risk for severe storms, with the main
threats being damaging wind gusts and isolated waterspouts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ087-096-099-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-055-058-059-281630-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Brunswick-Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-
Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-Inland Georgetown-Central Horry-
Northern Horry-
1222 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

There is also a marginal risk for severe storms,
with the main threats being damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a marginal risk for severe storms Thursday, with the main
threat being damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ110-281630-
Coastal Brunswick-
1222 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement for Strong Longshore Current.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   High Rip Current Risk.

There is also a marginal risk for severe storms,
with the main threats being damaging wind gusts and isolated
tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a marginal risk for severe storms Thursday, with the main
threat being damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ107-281630-
Inland New Hanover-
1222 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM
EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

In addition, moderate to heavy rain could lead to localized minor
flooding today. There is also a marginal risk for severe storms,
with the main threats being damaging wind gusts and isolated
tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a marginal risk for severe storms Thursday, with the main
threat being damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ106-108-281630-
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-
1222 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

In addition, moderate to heavy rain could lead to localized minor
flooding today. There is also a marginal risk for severe storms,
with the main threats being damaging wind gusts and isolated
tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a marginal risk for severe storms Thursday, with the main
threat being damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ105-281630-
Inland Pender-
1222 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Moderate to heavy rain could lead to localized minor flooding today.
There is also a marginal risk for severe storms, with the main
threats being damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a marginal risk for severe storms Thursday, with the main
threat being damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SCZ054-056-281630-
Coastal Horry-Coastal Georgetown-
1222 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Flash Flood Watch.

There is also a marginal risk for severe storms, with the main
threats being damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a marginal risk for severe storms Thursday, with the main
threat being damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

dch

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 27, 6:31 PM EDT, 2 hours 42 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
631 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

NCZ099-109-SCZ054-058-059-272300-
Inland Brunswick NC-Columbus NC-Northern Horry SC-Coastal Horry SC-
Central Horry SC-
631 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SOUTHWESTERN BRUNSWICK...
SOUTHWESTERN COLUMBUS AND EAST CENTRAL HORRY COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM
EDT...

At 630 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Iredell, or near Little River, moving north at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Little River, Iredell, Carolina Shores, Bethel, Freeland, Nakina, Old
Dock, Mollie, Bughill, Longwood, Longs, Pireway, Ash, Dulah,
Brooksville, Crusoe Island, Grissettown and Sea Coast Medical Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3393 7850 3390 7860 3389 7858 3385 7868
      3414 7887 3422 7855
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 169DEG 26KT 3393 7862

21
Special weather statement, May 27, 6:53 PM EDT, 2 hours 20 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
653 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

NCZ099-272330-
Columbus NC-
653 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTH CENTRAL COLUMBUS COUNTY UNTIL
730 PM EDT...

At 653 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Old Dock, or 11 miles southeast of Whiteville, moving north at 40
mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Whiteville, Redbug, Hallsboro, Southeastern Community College,
Brunswick and Columbus Regional Healthcare System.

People attending Columbus Regional Medical Tent may be affected by
this storm and are urged to follow the precautionary measures of the
onsite officials.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3444 7861 3444 7860 3443 7860 3443 7858
      3442 7857 3422 7855 3417 7874 3443 7886
      3445 7862
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 174DEG 33KT 3418 7861

21

The office that day

Everything else NWS Wilmington, NC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 28, 2:00 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryILMColumbus2 hr
May 28, 3:59 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryILMColumbus2 hr
May 28, 4:43 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningILMColumbus2 hr
May 28, 11:11 AM EDTBeach Hazards StatementILMBrunswick, New Hanover, Pender9 hr
May 28, 11:25 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryILMBladen, Brunswick, Columbus110 min
May 28, 1:17 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryILMPender118 min
May 28, 2:15 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryILMColumbus, Robeson2 hr
May 28, 7:51 PM EDTCoastal Flood AdvisoryILMNew Hanover8 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2020Every river flood warning in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.