Beach Hazards Statement 45, NWS Wilmington, NC

047 
WHUS42 KILM 310708
CFWILM

Coastal Hazard Message...RESENT
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
308 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

NCZ106-108-SCZ054-056-311600-
/O.CAN.KILM.BH.S.0045.000000T0000Z-201101T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KILM.BH.S.0046.201031T1000Z-201101T0000Z/
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-Coastal Horry-
Coastal Georgetown-
308 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Strong longshore current expected.

* WHERE...In South Carolina, Coastal Horry and Coastal 
  Georgetown Counties. In North Carolina, Coastal Pender and 
  Coastal New Hanover Counties.

* WHEN...Through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Longshore currents can sweep swimmers and surfers into
  rip currents, piers, jetties, and other hazardous areas. Often,
  if the longshore current is strong enough, it will sweep
  swimmers off their feet, making it difficult to return to shore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

NCZ107-311600-
/O.NEW.KILM.CF.Y.0109.201031T1300Z-201031T1600Z/
Inland New Hanover-
308 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
NOON EDT TODAY...

* WHAT...Up to one half foot of inundation above ground level 
  expected in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal 
  waterways.

* WHERE...Along the banks of the lower Cape Fear River from  
  Wilmington southward.

* WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to noon EDT today.

* IMPACTS...Partial water covered roadways, between one-quarter to
  one-half foot in depth, across Battleship Road and USS North
  Carolina Road. In downtown Wilmington, about a block of Water
  Street partially covered with water. River Road south of
  Wilmington could see partial water coverage. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Cape Fear River at Wilmington
MLLW Categories - Minor 5.5 ft, Moderate 6.7 ft, Major 10.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 0.8 ft, Moderate 2.0 ft, Major 5.3 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 31/10 AM     5.9        1.2        1.2        1      Minor    
 31/11 PM     6.0        1.3        1.6        1      Minor    
 01/10 AM     6.1        1.4        1.4        1      Minor    
 01/10 PM     5.2        0.5        1.0        1       None    
 02/11 AM     5.2        0.5        0.6        1       None    
 02/11 PM     4.5       -0.2        0.4        1       None

&&

$$

NCZ110-311600-
/O.NEW.KILM.BH.S.0046.201031T1000Z-201101T0000Z/
Coastal Brunswick-
308 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Moderate to Strong longshore current expected.

* WHERE...Coastal Brunswick County.

* WHEN...Through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Longshore currents can sweep swimmers and surfers into
  rip currents, piers, jetties, and other hazardous areas. Often,
  if the longshore current is strong enough, it will sweep
  swimmers off their feet, making it difficult to return to shore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.

&&

$$
dch

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
733 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in through early Sunday. A strong cold
front will move across the region Sunday with cold air building
in for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will quickly return to
near normal by the middle part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
N to NE breeze to persist tonight to help keep the atmosphere mixed
and preventing it from getting too chilly. In fact tonight's lows
in the mid 40s are quite close to seasonable normals. Conversely
lighter winds will lead to more shallow of a mixed boundary layer on
Saturday. This will foster highs only in the mid 60s despite some
weak WAA developing above the surface layer. Saturday night's lows
will run about a category milder than those of tonight as the warm
advection continues.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A potent mid level trough will move across the area late Sunday
into early Monday with a cold front at the surface. This will
likely be the coldest air mass to date for the season as 850mb
temperatures are near freezing for a several hours early Monday.
The precipitation depicted by guidance with the front is all
but unchanged from previous iterations so the slight chance pops
remain valid. As alluded to the big story will be the cold air.
Highs Monday aren't expected to get out of the middle 50s or
so. Lows Tuesday morning are mostly in the middle to upper 30s
with the cooler readings inland. Of course the need for a Frost
Advisory will almost certainly be in play inland and it will
depend primarily on if and when the boundary layer decouples.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Expect a very quiet extended period as the mid level pattern
will relax with a slowly building ridge across the Southeast
late in the period. High pressure situated well to the Northeast
will maintain an east to northeasterly flow across the region.
Moisture will gradually build with a coastal trough late and a
shortwave moving in from the west will give it a boost. This
probably will not happen until next weekend. Temperatures will
quickly reset to near normal values.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR through the 00Z TAF period. N/NE winds up to ~10 kt continue
tonight as strong sfc high pressure builds off to the N. As the
high shifts offshore on Sat winds will become out of the NE,
gusting up to 15-20 kt. Just some FEW clouds around 3k ft; SKC
otherwise and dry.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR during the extended period.
An exception may include brief MVFR from scattered showers
accompanying a cold frontal passage by late Sunday. Cold, dry
and breezy high pressure will follow Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday Night:
Advisory-worthy seas still slowly abating as the area remains in
between the strong low exiting the MidAtlantic coast and the
high building in behind it. The moderate wind veers to the NE
overnight and this could advect a few 6 ft waves back into the
NC waters but again over less than half of the zones. Have
collaborated already with the incoming shift who will reassess
with new model data/NWPS runs. Wind then veers again to E
Saturday night and eases in speed as the high partially lifts
out to our north and a weak coastal front develops.

Sunday Through Wednesday:
Very light winds Sunday will give way to a strong offshore
flow Sunday night into Monday as a strong cold front moves across.
With good cold air advection winds will jump into a range of 20-25
knots for 12-18 hours or so. This will build seas into Small Craft
Criteria for this time with the highest values across the outer
waters. The offshore flow diminishes Tuesday with a northeast flow
developing for the remainder of the period. Seas will drop down to a
range of 2-4 feet beyond Monday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MAS/IGB
MARINE...MBB/SHK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
356 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

NCZ110-SCZ054-312000-
Coastal Brunswick-Coastal Horry-
356 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement for Strong Longshore Current.
   Moderate Risk of Rip Currents.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Monday...
Elevated potential for critical fire weather conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ106-108-SCZ056-312000-
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-Coastal Georgetown-
356 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Risk of Rip Currents.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Monday...
Elevated potential for critical fire weather conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

AMZ250-252-254-256-312000-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
356 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

For Sunday Night into Monday...
Small Craft Advisory conditions possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ107-312000-
Inland New Hanover-
356 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Saturday through Sunday...
Consecutive high tides may reach minor coastal flood thresholds and
produce minor flooding along the banks of the Lower Cape Fear River
from Wilmington south.

Monday...
Elevated potential for critical fire weather conditions.

Early Tuesday Morning...
Increasing potential for areas of frost to occur.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ087-096-099-105-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-055-058-059-312000-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Inland Brunswick-Marlboro-
Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-Inland Georgetown-
Central Horry-Northern Horry-
356 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Monday...
Elevated potential for critical fire weather conditions.

Early Tuesday Morning...
Increasing potential for areas of frost to occur.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.