Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
333 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

As of early this afternoon, an area of low pressure was located over
the TX/OK Panhandle region, with another low along the SD/NE border.
A mid-level/700mb warm front arcs southeast from NE into eastern OK.
Meanwhile, the effective warm front (delineating SFC-based from
elevated convection) stretches from the TX Panhandle southeast into
northern TX (south of the Red River).

Elevated thunderstorms have been moving south across south
central Kansas as of mid afternoon. With continued moistening and
possibly some heating where cloud breaks can occur, there is the
potential for 1500-2500 MUCAPE to be realized through the evening,
especially along/west of I-35. This should continue to favor
hail, possibly up to quarter size hail. Any sustained or rotating
updraft could produce slightly larger hail up to half-dollar size
through early this evening. If enough heating/moistening can occur
through early this evening, there may be an opportunity for a
SFC-based storm to develop across central /south-central KS.
Should this occur, wind gusts of 45-65 mph would not be out of the
question.

-Martin

Throughout the evening, expecting showers and storms to gradually
push into southeast Kansas. Behind the front, wind speeds are
expected to increase to near or just above advisory levels across
portions of central and south central Kansas. The GFS is most
bullish with these, showing 850mb winds around 50kts or so across
portions of western and central Kansas. BUFKIT soundings suggest
that momentum transfer will be maximized just before and after
sunrise, especially for areas west of I-135. As a result, a wind
advisory was issued to account for higher sustained speeds or gust
potential, even though they should be relatively brief. As the
late morning and afternoon tomorrow proceed, expect to see a
downturn in wind speeds throughout the day.

Otherwise, temperatures will be cool again tomorrow with highs only
reaching into the low 60s with skies clearing throughout the day.
Friday night will be chilly, with temperatures dropping into the
upper 30s. At this time, thinking temperatures should remain above
freezing area-wide so a freeze appears unlikely. Otherwise, surface
high pressure will slide southeast from the Northern Plains to the
Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley Friday night into Saturday. This
will keep a dry pattern through the weekend.

-Vaughan

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

The next chance for meaningful precipitation will come late Sunday
night through Tuesday of next week as the next system moves through.
For now, there does not appear to be much available instability
Monday and Tuesday and lapse rates will be rather weak. Therefore,
thinking that strong and severe storms are unlikely at this time.

Looking ahead to the middle and end of next week, there is still a
hint of a pattern change that could support chances for strong to
severe thunderstorms across the area. Though this remains a few days
out and details remain unclear, this will be something to keep an
eye on over the next several days.

-Vaughan

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

*TSRA to impact the area through this evening
*Gusty north winds develop late tonight, continuing into Friday AM
*Low CIGs likely tonight/FRI AM

Widespread SHRA/TSRA at this time will continue into this evening,
before a cold front pushes through putting an end to the
precipitation. Any TSRA that develop will be capable of hail up to
quarter size (mainly west of I-35 and on south into Oklahoma). If a
stronger core can develop, half-dollar size hail wouldn't be out of
the realm of possibility. Behind the front, strong/gusty north
winds will develop, and will likely be accompanied by lower CIGs
(IFR/MVFR). VFR conditions may return as early as Friday
afternoon.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    48  62  39  66 /  70   0   0   0
Hutchinson      46  62  38  66 /  60   0   0   0
Newton          45  60  38  64 /  70   0   0   0
ElDorado        47  61  38  65 /  80   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   49  63  38  66 /  70   0   0   0
Russell         41  62  38  69 /  20   0   0   0
Great Bend      43  62  37  69 /  20   0   0   0
Salina          44  62  36  66 /  50   0   0   0
McPherson       45  60  37  65 /  60   0   0   0
Coffeyville     51  62  37  65 /  90   0   0   0
Chanute         49  60  37  63 /  90   0   0   0
Iola            48  60  37  63 /  90   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    50  61  38  63 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM CDT Friday for KSZ032-033-047-
048-050-067-082-091.

&&

SHORT TERM...RM/TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...RM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
432 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-082145-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
432 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will impact the
region today through this evening. A few strong to marginally
severe thunderstorms are possible, especially generally along and
west of the Flint Hills corridor. The main threats will be dime to
quarter size hail and potentially winds up to 45 to 65 mph.

Late tonight into early tomorrow, wind speeds will increase across
portions of central and south central Kansas. Sustained speeds up to
35mph with gusts up to 45mph will be possible. See the latest wind
advisory for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Elevated winds will persist through late morning. See the latest
wind advisory for details.

Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are forecast late Sunday
night through mid to late next week. While there is still a lot of
uncertainty with timing and location, for now strong and severe
storms appear unlikely through Tuesday. However, chances for strong
and severe storms may increase during the second half of the week.
Continue to check back as the details become more clear.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
324 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

KSZ092-072100-
Sumner KS-
324 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southwestern Sumner County in south central Kansas...

* Until 400 PM CDT.

* At 322 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 8 miles northwest of Caldwell...
  moving east at 45 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Wellington, Caldwell, South Haven and Perth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9780 3719 9780 3727 9742 3703 9727
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 252DEG 39KT 3710 9775

LAWSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
340 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NNW EAST WICHITA      37.71N 97.28W
05/07/2020  E50 MPH          SEDGWICK           KS   PUBLIC

            PEA SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS
            NEAR 13TH AND OLIVER.

&&

MARTIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
442 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

KSZ093-098-072215-
Cowley KS-Chautauqua KS-
442 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southeastern Cowley County in south central Kansas...
  Western Chautauqua County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 515 PM CDT.

* At 440 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Dexter, or 10 miles west of
  Cedar Vale...moving east at 40 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Cedar Vale and Dexter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3705 9676 3722 9680 3729 9642 3706 9633
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 262DEG 34KT 3714 9668

LAWSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
457 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 PM     HAIL             CEDAR VALE              37.11N 96.50W
05/07/2020  E0.88 INCH       CHAUTAUQUA         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL COVERING THE
            GROUND.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
459 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

KSZ098-072230-
Chautauqua KS-
459 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Chautauqua County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 530 PM CDT.

* At 457 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Cedar Vale...moving east at 50
  mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Sedan, Cedar Vale, Peru, Chautauqua and Niotaze.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3703 9651 3721 9650 3723 9596 3701 9597
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 277DEG 43KT 3711 9640

LAWSON

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