Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
251 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

Main challenge is convective trends this evening thru Friday night.
Widely scattered convection has developed as expected just ahead
of a surface trof/weak cold front across west central Kansas.
Modest instability and shear combo may support some organization
in the northwest flow aloft with steep lapse rates/inverted-V
soundings in the drier sub-cloud base air lending to locally
strong down-burst winds. Small hail is also possible. There is
potential for propagation/development southeastward on various
outflows toward the turnpike through the evening, though suspect
waning as it does so. Otherwise, chances for showers and isolated
storms will increase into Friday, in response to the amplifying
upper trof across the central Plains/lower Missouri Valley. The
relatively cool temperatures aloft, low level moisture and lift
under the developing trof will result in scattered to numerous
showers/isolated storms. Better coverages/chances over southeast
Kansas by Friday afternoon. Saturday still looks dry and
seasonably mild in the wake of the departing trof. Mean
geopotential height rises into Sunday and return southerly low
level flow will result in a warmer end to the weekend.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

There is still a signal for some elevated convection with some
mid-level warm moist advection/elevated instability from Sunday
evening thru early Monday across mainly southern Kansas. A more
pronounced upper trof is progged to deepen across the Midwest
into the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. This still looks to
bring a modest cold front southward across Kansas with modest
chances for showers/storms, mainly across eastern Kansas.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible after about 4-5 PM generally along and west of the Flint
Hills corridor. While widespread severe weather is not expected, a
few storms could be capable of 50-60 mph winds, small hail,
lightning, and brief heavy rain. Activity should tend to diminish
toward sunset as it approaches the Flint Hills. Later tonight,
scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are expected to
redevelop areawide as lift increases in response to an upper
trough approaching from the northwest. Weak cold advection behind
a progressing cool front should support areas of MVFR or IFR
ceilings mainly northwest of the KS Turnpike Friday morning.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue Friday across
central and eastern KS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    53  65  45  69 /  30  60  10   0
Hutchinson      50  65  43  69 /  30  60  10   0
Newton          51  64  43  67 /  30  70  10   0
ElDorado        53  66  44  68 /  30  70  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   55  67  45  69 /  30  60  20   0
Russell         48  67  41  69 /  30  40   0  10
Great Bend      49  66  40  69 /  20  50  10  10
Salina          50  66  43  69 /  30  60  10  10
McPherson       50  65  42  68 /  30  60  10  10
Coffeyville     55  69  47  68 /  30  70  40  10
Chanute         54  67  47  67 /  30  70  40  10
Iola            53  66  46  66 /  30  70  40  10
Parsons-KPPF    55  68  47  67 /  30  70  40  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...ADK

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