Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
346 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

Across the CONUS, there is a trough over the Great Lakes/eastern
half with a ridge in the Plains. Another trough is located along the
West Coast. Isolated showers and rumbles of thunder developed this
morning but did diminish fairly quickly. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms have started to form mid afternoon. Temperatures rose
to the upper 80s to lower 90s across the state.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

Highlights:

1) Scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening which may
be strong to severe in central Kansas

2) Additional chances of storms Thursday night and Friday

3) Temperatures in the 90s

Challenges: Precipitation chances and coverage

Changes: Precipitation chances and respective timing throughout

The northwest flow pattern continues today with summertime
convective activity anticipated to expand in coverage this
afternoon. At this time, it appears the best chances will be along
and west of I-135. This activity should be scattered since there is
not a distinct focus thus confidence is lower with the lack of
coverage. Instability is on the increase with roughly 30-40kts of 0-
6km bulk shear. The Storm Prediction Center inserted a slight risk
with their morning update from Barton to McPherson to Sedgwick to
Harper counties and points west and northwest to Kiowa and Trego
counties. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there is an
inverted v sounding which favors a wind or downburst threat. It is
possible that the storms could be strong to severe with up to
quarter sized hail and 60mph winds. These thunderstorms should be
diurnally driven and fall apart soon after sunset.

As the western trough progresses eastward, this shifts the ridge to
the east. The wave stays along the Front Range and tracks across the
Plains on Friday. There could be activity late Thursday night thru
the day on Friday. Models suggest decent CAPE in the afternoon but
marginal 20kts of shear with a boundary over the area. The best
chances for precipitation remain Friday evening into early Saturday
which coincides with the approximate timing of the boundary. There
are some discrepancies with the NAM showing persistent activity
during the day into Saturday while the GFS indicates a later show
(overnight Friday into early Saturday). Chances of precipitation
will likely be adjusted due to a change in confidence and timing
with additional model runs for better agreement.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

Highlights:

1) Chances of thunderstorms throughout

2) Temperatures in the 90s

It appears that another boundary will move across on Sunday. The
trend is to maintain daily chances for thunderstorms. Model
discrepancies are prominent through much of the end of the forecast
period. Thus there is low confidence in what will actually occur.
Changes in the chances for precipitation have been modified with
this issuance based on the current blend of model data. Stay tuned
for future changes and updates. Temperatures should stay in the 90s
throughout this period as well. On Tuesday, they could climb to the
mid to upper 90s in the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

Widely scattered thunderstorms are still expected this afternoon
and evening across portions of central and south central KS. Most
cigs are expected to remain in the 6-8k ft range although some
transient MVFR can be expected under the heaviest activity. Storms
should be mostly diurnally driven and begin to taper off shortly
after peak heating. A develop SSW LLJ may result in some LLWS
across portions of central KS after 08-09Z before diminishing
during the morning hours on Thu.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    68  92  71  94 /  20   0  10  20
Hutchinson      66  92  70  93 /  20   0  20  30
Newton          67  91  71  92 /  20   0  10  30
ElDorado        67  90  71  92 /  20  10  10  20
Winfield-KWLD   68  91  71  92 /  10  10  10  20
Russell         65  94  70  93 /  30  10  40  40
Great Bend      66  94  69  94 /  30   0  30  20
Salina          67  93  73  94 /  20  10  20  40
McPherson       66  92  70  92 /  20   0  20  30
Coffeyville     67  90  70  91 /  20  10   0  10
Chanute         67  90  71  90 /  20  10   0  10
Iola            67  90  71  91 /  30  10   0  20
Parsons-KPPF    67  90  71  90 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...MWM

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
338 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

KSZ047-242115-
Barton KS-
338 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northwestern Barton County in central Kansas...

* Until 415 PM CDT.

* At 337 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm just north of Otis...moving
  southeast at 10 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Albert, Olmitz and Galatia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 9903 3870 9897 3850 9880 3840 9888
      3839 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 323DEG 10KT 3860 9905

DARMOFAL