Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
256 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Short term forecast remains rather active and has under gone some
decent changes from previous runs.  Short term models are having
difficulty resolving the event for this afternoon and tonight as the
long wave trough is beginning to move through the region.  Previous
runs had a slower progression with the main trigger for this
afternoon thunderstorms and likely severe weather being driven the
mid level short wave that is now moving through the region.  New
model runs are now showing a much more progressive long wave trough
which is now in phase with the weaker shortwave trough over the
western portions of Kansas.

There are two main areas of contention between the models at this
time with the lack of agreement on the moisture transport and
resultant moisture axis being the most prominent.  The GFS is much
weaker on the moisture transport and keeps the bulk of the transport
further to the south in Oklahoma while the NAM is more bullish.  The
NAM solution brings a prominent moisture axis into Central Kansas by
this evening which would support a significant round of thunderstorm
activity with a good portions of it severe in nature.  Upper level
winds are much better this time round and 12Z analysis charts have
300mb winds in the 45-55kt range providing some decent exhaust for
thunderstorms to work with.  The short range CAMS are also in
significant disagreement on the thunderstorm focal point and many of
them turn the thunder off shortly after sunset tonight for much of
the CWA. This does not seem likely but could see the severe weather
abate by this time if the model predictions of the 300mb winds
weakening during the late afternoon and evening which would keep
the chances for severe weather down in the evening hours. Currently
looking for some thunderstorm activity during the evening hours in
South Central Kansas with a good chance some of it will be severe
but it is expected to be more isolated.

Monday and Tuesday will have the long wave trough pushing further to
the east which will kick the winds around to the north and west and
will bring the temperatures down some as well.  The moisture
transport looks to remain well to the south by this time as the long
wave through and the northerly flow will keep it out of the region.
This does not mean we will be completely out of the thunderstorm
business but is it unlikely that severe weather will return for
Monday and Tuesday.  This northerly flow and likely lingering cloud
cover will keep temperatures down for Monday and especially Tuesday.

Metzger

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

The change in the short term models has also forced a change in the
extended range.  The extended now looks to be a little warmer than
previous runs but also a little more active.  The frontal boundary
looks to want to stall to the south of the region which will keep
the chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Intensity
of this activity can't be determined at this time due to how far out
this activity is.  That said, orientation does indicate there could
be some chances for strong to severe thunderstorms with some of this
activity.  Temperatures will seasonable and become hot but the
proximity of thunderstorm activity will keep the temperatures down
and prevent them from getting too far above normal if at all.

Metzger&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Extremely challenging aviation forecast with persistent ongoing
storms in central KS. These have not be reflected in models, and
lends considerable uncertainty on timing/track of storms later
this afternoon/evening. Given instability across the area, would
expect storms to affect all sites at some point. Overall thinking
is that these storms may not die and continue a slow upscale
growth to the south. The alternative scenario is these storms
eventually dwindle with renewed second round developing later this
afternoon/evening. Anticipate VFR outside of storms. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    67  88  64  84 /  90  30  40  10
Hutchinson      65  86  62  83 /  90  20  30  10
Newton          65  85  63  82 /  90  30  40  10
ElDorado        65  85  63  82 /  90  30  40  10
Winfield-KWLD   66  86  65  83 /  80  30  50  20
Russell         63  87  60  84 /  80  20  30  10
Great Bend      63  87  60  84 /  90  10  30  10
Salina          64  87  62  83 /  90  20  30  10
McPherson       64  86  61  82 /  90  20  30  10
Coffeyville     67  85  66  83 /  90  40  50  20
Chanute         67  85  65  82 /  90  40  50  20
Iola            67  85  65  82 /  80  40  50  20
Parsons-KPPF    67  85  66  82 /  90  40  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...PJH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
345 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-222045-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
345 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The threat of severe weather will increase this afternoon and
evening, first across central and south-central Kansas, then
potentially reaching southeast Kansas tonight. The primary hazards
will be hail up to 2 inches and wind gusts of 60-75 mph. A brief
tornado cannot be ruled out, mainly central Kansas. This evening,
the main threat will transition to a wind and very heavy rain
situation. Winds up to 75 mph will still be possible in the highest
storms. Flash flooding is also possible with this activity mainly
along and west of I-135.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Additional rounds of thunderstorms, some strong, will be possible
Monday and again mid to late week.

Minor river flooding may linger into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation likely this afternoon through tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
301 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

KSZ048-212030-
Ellsworth KS-
301 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northwestern Ellsworth County in central Kansas...

* Until 330 PM CDT.

* At 259 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Wilson...moving east at 10 mph.

Hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Ellsworth, Wilson, Kanopolis and Ellsworth Airport.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3887 9807 3864 9808 3861 9848 3869 9848
      3870 9849 3887 9849
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 250DEG 7KT 3879 9839

VAUGHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
314 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             WILSON                  38.82N 98.47W
06/21/2020  E1.50 INCH       ELLSWORTH          KS   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA KSN OF PEA TO PING PONG BALL
            SIZED HAIL. TIME IS APPROXIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
316 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     TSTM WND GST     RUSSELL AIRPORT         38.87N 98.82W
06/21/2020  M58 MPH          RUSSELL            KS   ASOS

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
327 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0246 PM     HAIL             BUNKER HILL             38.88N 98.70W
06/21/2020  E1.50 INCH       RUSSELL            KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED TO DISPATCH THAT
            THERE WAS GOLF BALL TO PING PONG BALL SIZED
            HAIL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
346 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     TSTM WND GST     RUSSELL AIRPORT         38.87N 98.82W
06/21/2020  M61 MPH          RUSSELL            KS   ASOS

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
347 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

KSZ032-212115-
Russell KS-
347 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southern Russell County in central Kansas...

* Until 415 PM CDT.

* At 346 PM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was tracking
  a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall 8 miles southwest
  of Wilson...moving southeast at 15 mph.

Hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Gorham and Milberger.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3888 9904 3883 9849 3870 9849 3870 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 316DEG 14KT 3872 9853

VAUGHAN