Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
622 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 529 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

Convection has developed a bit further south into south central
Kansas early this morning, where it is realizing much more
instability and stronger cloud-bearing shear. Dime size hail was
reported near one of the taller/stronger cores, though perhaps
slightly larger than quarter size is possible through mid-morning.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

Main concern is precip/convective trends tonight and Monday and
potential for strong/severe storms. For early this morning, it
appears the elevated low level flow is stronger than progged
currently via the KICT-88D VWP. The implication being a bit more
lift and saturation ahead of the low amplitude wave moving across
the area. So expect continued development a bit further
southeastward across portions of central and southeast Kansas
where there is a bit more potential instability. Cloud bearing
shear may be sufficient to result in a couple of locally strong
storms with small hail through about mid-morning. This activity
should exit southeast Kansas by midday with the rest of the day
dry and slightly cooler, though seasonably mild for early May.
Otherwise, there continues to be a decent signal for the
development of elevated convection across central and eastern
Kansas late tonight into Monday morning, in the presence of
stronger warm advection/moisture transport. It is quite possible
this could evolve into a mesoscale cluster or complex with the
cloud bearing shear and instability combo supporting a few severe
storms. This activity should exit into Missouri by late morning.
The main challenge on Monday afternoon remains how far north the
effective warm front and better moisture/instability will get
before the Pacific front arrives late in the day. The GFS remains
more bullish in this regard which is reflected in stronger
buoyancy and a weaker cap across southern Kansas during peak
heating. If so, strong vertical wind shear is a given, which
continues to support a conditional risk for organized severe
storms Monday afternoon across across primarily southeast Kansas.
This will be followed by a drier and seasonably mild airmass on
Tuesday.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

The medium range guidance still supports much cooler weather for the
end of the week as an upper low which forms over Hudson Bay evolves
into a larger vortex as it expands/moves southward toward the Great
Lakes. This will send temperatures below seasonal climo by Friday
and Saturday.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

Robust elevated convection will continue eastward from south
central into southeast Kansas through mid-morning. Locally large
hail and gusty winds can be expected. Otherwise, dry weather
expected in the storms wake this afternoon and early evening.
Winds will veer from north-northeast to east-southeast tonight.
Southerly elevated return flow will advect deeper moisture across
the area with chances for convection again toward the end of the
forecast valid period. While mainly VFR, localized MVFR cigs and
IFR vsbys in convection will be possible.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    76  59  75  53 /  20  20  20  10
Hutchinson      76  56  72  50 /  10  30  20  10
Newton          74  56  71  51 /  30  30  30  10
ElDorado        75  57  73  52 /  40  30  30  10
Winfield-KWLD   76  60  78  54 /  20  20  20  10
Russell         75  53  71  47 /  10  40  30   0
Great Bend      75  55  73  49 /  10  40  20  10
Salina          76  54  68  50 /  10  40  50  10
McPherson       75  55  70  49 /  10  40  30  10
Coffeyville     74  60  79  55 /  40  30  50  40
Chanute         73  58  75  53 /  50  30  60  30
Iola            73  57  72  52 /  50  30  70  30
Parsons-KPPF    73  59  77  55 /  50  30  50  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

UPDATE...KED
SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...KED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
509 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-041015-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
509 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong to severe storms with nickel to half-dollar size hail
will be possible through mid-morning, mainly north of highway 54 in
south central and southeast Kansas and to the south of highway 56
in central Kansas.

Chances for thunderstorms will return late tonight, especially
across central and southeast Kansas. A few severe storms will be
possible toward sunrise, capable of quarter size hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A few severe storms will be possible Monday morning across a
portion of the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas. The main risk will
be quarter size hail.

A risk for severe storms will also exist across southeast Kansas on
Monday afternoon. The main threats will be quarter to half-dollar
size hail and damaging wind gusts to 65 mph.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday
night. The risk for severe weather appears low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
447 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

KSZ050>052-067-068-031015-
Reno KS-Rice KS-McPherson KS-Harvey KS-Marion KS-
447 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Reno County in south central Kansas...
  Southern Rice County in central Kansas...
  Southern McPherson County in central Kansas...
  Harvey County in south central Kansas...
  Southwestern Marion County in central Kansas...

* Until 515 AM CDT.

* At 444 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 5 miles
  northwest of Goessel to 7 miles north of Hutchinson to Zenith...and
  moving east at 45 mph.

Pea to dime size hail is possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Hutchinson, Newton, Mcpherson, Hesston, Hillsboro, South
  Hutchinson, Sterling, Halstead, North Newton, Moundridge, Inman,
  Buhler, Haven, Peabody, Nickerson, Burrton, Galva, Canton, Goessel
  and Arlington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 9847 3848 9711 3809 9698 3809 9715
      3805 9715 3774 9846
TIME...MOT...LOC 0946Z 254DEG 41KT 3828 9743 3817 9794 3794 9847

KLEINSASSER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
509 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

KSZ067-031045-
Reno KS-
509 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Central Reno County in south central Kansas...

* Until 545 AM CDT.

* At 507 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Nickerson...moving east at 30
  mph. Another strong storms was located between Partridge and
  Haven, also moving east.

hail up to the size of nickels will be possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Hutchinson, South Hutchinson, Buhler, Haven, Nickerson, Arlington,
  Partridge, Abbyville, Yoder, Willowbrook and Hutchinson Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 9825 3817 9822 3816 9822 3816 9815
      3817 9814 3817 9770 3784 9771 3782 9812
      3805 9837
TIME...MOT...LOC 1009Z 261DEG 26KT 3809 9803

KLEINSASSER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
516 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0514 AM     HAIL             GOESSEL                 38.25N 97.35W
05/03/2020  E0.75 INCH       Marion             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KED

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
516 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

KSZ082-031045-
Kingman KS-
516 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Kingman County in south central Kansas...

* Until 545 AM CDT.

* At 514 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Cunningham, or 11 miles east
  of Cairo...moving east at 20 mph. Another strong storm was located
  north of Isabel, also moving east.

hail up to the size of nickels will be possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Kingman, Cunningham, Nashville, Willowdale, Zenda, Spivey,
  Cleveland, Penalosa, Rago and Kingman Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3739 9846 3773 9847 3773 9800 3739 9801
      3738 9843
TIME...MOT...LOC 1015Z 268DEG 20KT 3762 9835

KLEINSASSER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
544 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 AM     HAIL             2 E GOESSEL             38.25N 97.31W
05/03/2020  E1.00 INCH       MARION             KS   PUBLIC

            VIA MPING.

&&

KED