Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1143 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

Confidence continues to increase on storms developing tonight,
likely, just east of I-135. At this point it's just a matter of
timing more than anything. Right now going with the thinking that
it will be after 11pm with a decent chance it will be after
midnight. Latest guidance suggest that there will be around
2,000J/KG of CAPE and about 30KTS of shear available. This should
be enough for quarter to half dollar size hail with the stronger
storms. This activity will linger over southeast KS after 12z, so
increased pops in this location.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

Remnants from last nights convection has ended across portions of
central KS, with a remnant meso convective vort center (MCV)
spinning into NE KS.  Also seeing a weak outflow boundary from last
nights storms located along the KS Turnpike. Could see some
festering showers or sprinkles along this boundary as it shifts east
across the area, but most locations remain worked over some last
nights showers/storms, with a warm elevated mixed layer keeping
things capped.

For the late evening and overnight hours, most of the short range
models suggest that low level moisture transport and warm advection
will again increase across central KS, but this time a little
further to the east than last night, as warmer mid level temps build
into the high plains, shifting the main baroclinic zone a little
further east. This will lead to this fairly stout mid level
baroclinic zone setting up generally along I-135, with moisture
transport and lift increasing along this area from KSLN south to
KHUT and possibly to KICT late this evening.  So expect a broken
line of showers/storms to develop along this warm advection wing
towards midnight.  Also the nose of this moisture transport will
also lead to some sort of convective cluster developing over
northern KS/southern Neb, with this cluster of storms riding
southeast along the moisture/temp gradient initially into central KS
and eventually into Flint Hills by late tonight or by early Thu
morning. Will have to keep an eye on the SE diving storms and warm
advection storms tonight, as the NW flow aloft will lead to decent
directional shear and bulk shear around 40kts, with moderate
instability for the storms to tap into.  So expecting to see some
strong storms and would not be surprised to see a few severe storms,
with bowing segments, as the storms move southeast.  Think the
initial impact will be dime to quarter size hail, but as cold pools
develop, expect the severe threat to transition into a damaging wind
threat late tonight. There is a chance the bowing segments may not
initially reach their true wind potential as the downburst winds
will be elevated, due to the high storm bases. But think cold pools
associated with the storms will lead to some of the downbursts
reaching the ground late tonight.

Expect to convection to continue into the early morning hours, on
Thu especially for areas east of a KSLN to KICT line with most of
the storms propagating into the Flint Hills by Thu morning, but
diminishing or ending by Thu afternoon, with mostly dry conditions
expected for Thu afternoon thru Thu evening.

Latest GFS and NAM/WRF both suggest that the warm mid level temps
will continue to build into most of the forecast area for Thu night,
which will prevent most areas from seeing another round of overnight
convection Thu night.  The only exception may be over extreme SE KS,
and NE OK, (near the KS/OK border).  Where warm advection/moisture
transport may lead to overnight showers and storms initially
developing over SE KS during the late evening hours and then moving
SE into OK by early Fri morning.  So will keep a chance pop in SE KS
for this chance.

For Fri and Sat, expect warmer temps and more a humid airmass as the
upper ridge begins to build across the high plains into the Rockies.
With warming mid level temps, expect convective chances to be
effectively capped off for the start of the weekend. This will lead
to most of the convective activity staying well to the north and
west of the forecast area. Expect this time frame to have the
warmest temps for the next 7 days, which will lead to max temps
climbing back to seasonal normals in the low 90s, with the potential
for heat index values of 100 to 102.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

Mid to upper flow pattern shifts to more a NW flow pattern for the
end of the weekend and the start of next week, as the upper ridge
continues to build over the Rockies. This will lead to a series of
cold fronts dropping south-southeast across the forecast area. The
first such front will drop south for late Saturday night or early
Sun, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in some sort of
south moving complex of storms for late Sat night.  This front will
be the beginning of cooler and drier air pushing into the plains for
Sun and for the start of the work week.

Some uncertainty on how Sun night will play out, depending on how
far south the front pushes into the southern plains.  But a
secondary front looks to push into the area on Mon night or early on
Tue, which will push max temps into the 80 to 85 degree range.

A cool ridge of high pressure will move across the region for the
middle of the week, with below normal max temps expected.  This will
also keep most of the convective chances to the west and NW of the
area for the middle of the week as well.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

Aviation concerns remain storms into Thu morning along with some
low clouds along our western flank.

Storms have already developed over south central KS along a tight
mid level baroclinic zone. For the next few hours KICT will be the
site having the best chance to be affected. After 09z, better
chances will shift to KCNU. Still thinking some hail will be
possible with the stronger storms along with brief heavy rain. The
threat should end at KCNU around 14z.

Low clouds and some fog also still look to develop over western KS
overnight. Will keep with some MVFR conditions at KGBD-KRSL and
will put a brief period of IFR conditions at KGBD after 10z. Still
feel the bulk of the really low cigs and vis will be just west of
the forecast area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  90  71  93 /  30  30  10  10
Hutchinson      71  89  69  92 /  20  20  10   0
Newton          70  88  70  92 /  30  30  10  10
ElDorado        71  88  70  91 /  50  40  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   72  90  71  92 /  40  40  20  10
Russell         70  89  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
Great Bend      70  88  68  92 /  10  10   0   0
Salina          71  89  70  93 /  40  20  10   0
McPherson       70  89  69  92 /  30  20  10   0
Coffeyville     69  90  72  91 /  50  40  20  20
Chanute         69  89  71  91 /  50  60  30  20
Iola            69  89  71  92 /  40  60  30  20
Parsons-KPPF    69  90  72  92 /  50  50  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE...RBL
SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...RBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1117 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-131715-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1117 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely tonight, generally along and east of the I-
135 corridor. The stronger storms will be capable of hail up to half
dollar size along with 55 mph winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered storms are expected over southeast Kansas Thursday
morning. A few of the stronger storms will be capable of nickel to
quarter size hail along with 50 mph winds.

A few thunderstorms may redevelop late Thursday afternoon or
evening. The threat of redevelopment is more conditional, but if
storms form, they would likely be severe.

A cold front pushing slowly south across the Central Plains this
weekend will bring another opportunity for thunderstorms.

Heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees are possible Friday and Saturday
across southern Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight. However, any reports
of hail or high winds would be appreciated.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

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