Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
625 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Showers and thunderstorms were ongoing across much of south central
and portions of southeast KS through the late morning/early
afternoon hours. As this area of elevated storms fade, another round
of surface based storms will remain possible later this afternoon
and evening. The most likely area for redevelopment should be along
the southward sagging cold front although other activity will be
possible further south where some lingering outflow boundaries may
remain. Some pockets of large buoyancy ahead of the sagging boundary
should result in scattered or widely scattered multicell storm
clusters capable of severe wind gusts in addition to locally heavy
rain and perhaps some small/marginally sized hail. A subtle
shortwave trough emerging from the Rockies may allow storms to
linger into the overnight hours with some subtle warm air
advection across central and eastern Kansas where mid level
temperatures are progged to remain slightly cooler but large scale
forcing for ascent appears to be rather weak and storm coverage
could be lower tonight.

The frontal boundary is progged to become stationary meandering
across the forecast area on Tuesday before lifting north as a warm
front. This leads to a low confidence temperature forecast across
much of the area given the uncertainty. Temperatures south of the
front may return into the upper 90s while highs remain more
seasonable north of the boundary. Will hold onto some small pops
Tue as the front slowly washes out. At the same time there looks
to be some model agreement on a weak upper impulse slowly
tracking across the OK/KS border which may lead to some iso/sct
activity. Another one of these weak upper perturbations is
expected to move out of the Rockies and across northern KS Tue
night which will keep some storm chances around.

Upper ridging will build over the southwest CONUS for Wed with a
weak upper impulse situated over AR. Will linger some small pops
over mainly eastern KS on Wed due to the proximity of the weak
upper wave along with the area being under diffluent flow aloft.
Will increase storm chances slightly for Wed night as yet another
weak upper perturbation slides out of the Rockies and across the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Upper ridging will continue to build over NM/AZ Thursday with
good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF on an upper wave tracking
across SE NE/southern Iowa. Upper shortwave is expected to swing
across the northern Plains on Thu night into Fri and may try and
push a weak cold front into the area, however confidence is low on
it making it this far south. So won't hit pops too hard for the
end of the week. For the weekend there is good model agreement in
retrograding the upper ridge back west over the Great Basin, which
would put the central Plains back into northwest flow aloft. This
would promote seasonal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Scattered strong to severe storms may affect portions of central
Kansas this evening to the west of I-135 and along the Oklahoma
border in far southern Kansas. A weak cold front will continue to
meander across the area with east to northeast winds along the
I-70 corridor and mainly east to southeast winds across south
central and southeast Kansas. Patchy stratus is possible across
central Kansas early Tuesday morning, though confidence on MVFR
or IFR cigs are low.

KEd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  93  72  93 /  30  20  20  10
Hutchinson      68  93  70  93 /  30  20  20  10
Newton          69  92  70  93 /  30  20  20  10
ElDorado        70  91  70  92 /  30  20  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   71  92  71  93 /  50  30  20  10
Russell         66  92  70  93 /  30  10  20  10
Great Bend      66  91  69  93 /  70  10  20  10
Salina          68  92  70  93 /  20  20  20  20
McPherson       68  92  69  92 /  30  20  20  20
Coffeyville     72  90  71  93 /  70  40  30  20
Chanute         71  90  70  93 /  40  40  30  30
Iola            71  89  70  93 /  40  40  30  30
Parsons-KPPF    71  90  71  93 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MWM/RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...KED

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