Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
257 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

...Higher end severe weather possible through this evening...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through tonight)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

A cold front is draped from northwest Missouri across northern
Kansas and will continue to move south toward the KS/OK border
throughout the afternoon and evening. Convective inhibition
continues to erode this afternoon across east central KS, and will
continue to erode across much of the area over the next few hours
ahead of the front as low 90s sfc temps continue to rise and
dewpoints climb into the upper 70s. Severe storms are expected to
develop within this extremely unstable airmass characterized by
MLCAPE of 5,000-6,000J/kg, 50-60kts of bulk shear, and very steep
mid level lapse rates near 8C/kg. Additionally, the environment
will consist of strong sfc-3km lapse rates of about 8.5C/kg, DCAPE
of 1600J/kg, and LCLs of 1000-1500m. A few additional parameters
of concern include SHIP >2, Lg Hail Parameter from 8-16, and
Microburst parameter of >10.

Threats: Significant hail of baseball size (2.75in) or greater will
be possible, perhaps even as large as softball size (4in). Hail of
3.25 in has already been reported today in northeast KS. Significant
wind gusts up to 80 mph will also be possible in this environment
which adds an additional dangerous threat of wind-driven very large
hail. A brief tornado can not be ruled out either with updrafts tied
to the boundary, or do to rapid updraft stretching.

Storms should remain rather discrete to start, however storm
coverage is expected to increase by the evening as outflow
boundaries begin to interact as well as storms splitting due to
rather straight hodographs. As cells coagulate expect the
significant hail threat to taper down and become much more of a
significant wind event toward the end of the night.

Butler/Martin

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

While upper ridge axis looks to expand eastward across the
southern states into next week, a fairly progressive westerly flow
will prevail across the northern tier of states. This should allow
for periodic frontal passages and temper the more intense heat
at times. That said, temperatures should average above seasonal
climo.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

A cold front will move through the area this afternoon through
evening sparking showers and severe storms capable of 2+ inch hail
and 70 mph winds possible. The greatest threats and probability of
seeing storms is across south central and southeast KS where VCTS
is currently being carried in the TAF. Central KS is a but more
questionable, however KSLN may also see severe storms as
convective attempts have been noted already just to KSLN's
northeast.

Expect VFR conditions, except in around the storms where MVFR cigs
and low vis will likely occur. Expect several updates.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Where thunderstorms form through tonight, intense rainfall rates
may occur. While storms should remain fairly progressive, those
intense rates may lead to some flash flood potential. This may
especially be the case where storm mergers occur, allowing heavier
rainfall rates to last for a longer duration.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  92  68  93 /  60   0  10   0
Hutchinson      68  91  67  93 /  20   0  10   0
Newton          67  90  67  92 /  40   0   0  10
ElDorado        68  88  66  91 /  70   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   72  90  68  93 / 100   0  10   0
Russell         65  92  67  94 /  10   0   0  10
Great Bend      65  92  68  94 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          66  91  68  95 /  10   0   0  10
McPherson       66  90  66  93 /  20   0   0  10
Coffeyville     71  88  68  92 /  90   0   0   0
Chanute         70  87  67  92 /  60   0   0   0
Iola            69  87  67  92 /  80   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    70  88  68  91 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ069-082-083-
091>094-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...KMB
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...KMB
HYDROLOGY...RM

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