Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
230 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Potential for strong/severe convection early this morning within
reservoir of strong elevated instability and 40 to 45 kts of cloud
bearing shear across central Kansas. Accas and weak radar returns
just prior to 07z have gone upscale quickly just south of the I-70
corridor by 0725z. Modest elevated moisture transport along the
mid-level baroclinic zone will continue through the morning hours
and expect convection to develop from central into south central
Kansas across the Flint Hills. It is possible convection should
persist into midday, and if so, this could limit diurnal warming
this afternoon. An upper trof will move eastward across the
northern Plains tonight and then southeastward across the Upper
Midwest on Saturday. The NAM/GFS develop convection and a MCS
across SD/eastern NE which dives more southward across far
eastern Kansas/western Missouri early Saturday morning. If so,
this would augment the southward movement and quicker passage of
the effective surface front. This would not only result in
slightly cooler (less hot) temperatures Saturday afternoon across
much of the area, but may also push the better late day storm
chances along or south of the Oklahoma border. Expect mainly dry
and seasonably very warm temperatures on Sunday.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

While the the heat is expected to build more in earnest finally
within and just north of the upper ridge across the area by
the middle of next week, a weak but discernible surface front
looks to waver across the central Plains. This could make the
difference on when and where some areas exceed the century mark on
the thermometer. Otherwise, chances for organized convection look
more muted much of next week.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Scattered elevated storms are expected to develop late tonight
over central/south central Kansas. This activity will linger
through the morning hours on Friday and spread into southeast
Kansas. Some of the storms could reach severe levels with large
hail and damaging winds. Easterly winds will gradually switch to
the southeast during the day on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    92  75  94  69 /  50  10  20  10
Hutchinson      91  73  93  66 /  40  10  10  10
Newton          90  73  92  66 /  40  20  10  10
ElDorado        90  72  92  66 /  40  20  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   91  75  95  69 /  30  10  20  20
Russell         90  70  91  64 /  20  10  10  10
Great Bend      91  71  92  65 /  20  10  10  10
Salina          91  72  92  66 /  20  10  10  10
McPherson       91  72  92  66 /  40  20  10  10
Coffeyville     90  73  93  70 /  30  40  40  20
Chanute         90  72  91  69 /  20  50  50  20
Iola            89  71  89  68 /  20  50  50  20
Parsons-KPPF    90  73  92  69 /  30  50  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...CDJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
310 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-110815-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
310 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe storms are possible this morning from the Flint
Hills westward across central and south central Kansas. The main
threats will be nickel to half-dollar size hail and wind gusts of
50 to 60 mph. Locally heavy rainfall and minor lowland flooding will
also be possible.

Heat indices will climb to around 100 degrees this afternoon across
south central Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Strong thunderstorms are possible early Saturday morning across
southeast Kansas. The main threats will be wind gusts to 50 mph and
small hail.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon across
portions of south central and southeast Kansas. A strong to severe
storm will be possible, capable of 55 to 65 mph winds and nickel to
half-dollar size hail.

Heat indices of 100 to 102 are possible Saturday afternoon across
southern Kansas with heat indices possibly near 105 degrees by the
middle of next week across much of the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1136 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

KSZ092-100530-
Sumner KS-
1136 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southeastern Sumner County in south central Kansas...

* Until 1230 AM CDT.

* At 1135 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Caldwell...moving east at 25
  mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Caldwell, South Haven, Geuda Springs and Hunnewell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3705 9768 3723 9715 3700 9715 3700 9766
TIME...MOT...LOC 0436Z 257DEG 20KT 3699 9752

KETCHAM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
211 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

KSZ032-047-048-100800-
Ellsworth KS-Russell KS-Barton KS-
211 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Ellsworth County in central Kansas...
  Southern Russell County in central Kansas...
  Northern Barton County in central Kansas...

* Until 300 AM CDT.

* At 210 AM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was tracking
  a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall near Ellsworth...
  moving east at 40 mph.

* Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Russell, Ellsworth, Hoisington, Wilson, Claflin, Kanopolis,
  Holyrood, Gorham, Bushton, Geneseo, Dorrance, Lorraine, Olmitz,
  Milberger, Bunker Hill, Galatia, Susank, Ellsworth Airport, Russell
  Airport and Kanopolis Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3893 9904 3890 9848 3887 9848 3887 9793
      3852 9793 3851 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 0711Z 283DEG 35KT 3873 9832

METZGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
258 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

KSZ048>051-100845-
Ellsworth KS-Rice KS-McPherson KS-Saline KS-
258 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Ellsworth County in central Kansas...
  Rice County in central Kansas...
  McPherson County in central Kansas...
  Southwestern Saline County in central Kansas...

* Until 345 AM CDT.

* At 257 AM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was tracking
  a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall near Geneseo, or
  10 miles south of Kanopolis...moving east at 40 mph.

* Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Salina, Mcpherson, Lyons, Lindsborg, Ellsworth, Moundridge, Inman,
  Galva, Wilson, Canton, Kanopolis, Marquette, Little River, Chase,
  Holyrood, Assaria, Bushton, Geneseo, Brookville and Smolan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may produce ponding of water on roadways. Listen for
later statements or possible flood warnings...should the risk for
minor low-land flooding become more imminent.

&&

LAT...LON 3887 9793 3861 9738 3818 9737 3829 9847
      3887 9848
TIME...MOT...LOC 0758Z 283DEG 34KT 3856 9809

METZGER