Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
923 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

Diurnally driven convection, along a diffuse outflow boundary has led
to convection propagating to the NW towards the convective complex
currently moving east out of NW KS. The bigger concern, now, is the
strong/severe complex of storms moving E into KHYS and what is the
path of this complex of storms late this evening and overnight.

Current RAP propagation vectors suggest that this complex will
continue to move E-SE as it progresses into central KS, possibly
taking more of a turn to the SE with time towards McPherson and
Marion, as the complex follows the main instability axis to the SE.
Could see damaging winds along the bowing segment with heavy
rainfall as well, given the very unstable airmass.  After
coordination with SPC, gonna issue a SVR Watch for portions of
central KS for the damaging wind threat.

Ketcham

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

Morning convection which moved across the southern Flint Hills
has evolved into a decent MCS this afternoon across eastern
Oklahoma. This has stabilized much of the area in the wake of
the outflow boundary which arches from central Oklahoma into
portions of southwest Kansas. This will focus the more robust
convection west of the forecast area late this afternoon. As the
weak mid-level flow becomes more northerly this evening, it may
tend to keep much of this convection from developing/moving too
far east into central Kansas. However, airmass recovery is
expected within the reservoir of elevated low level moisture
across central and eastern Kansas later this evening, so will
expand slight/modest PoPs overnight. Weak northerly flow aloft
looks to be maintained across the area through Independence Day
with instability axis across eastern Kansas. While chances for
organized convection look low, cannot rule out a few storms the
next few days. Temperatures should average near or slightly above
early July climo, though will likely stay just below the 105 heat
advisory criteria.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

Upper ridge will retrograde across the Southwest CONUS late in
the weekend through early next week as weak troughing over the
high Plains migrates across the area. This may provide modest
precip/convective chances across the area.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

Diurnally driven convection continues across south central KS and
extreme SE KS at this time.  Most of the convection is flirting with
the KHUT/KGBD and KCNU taf sites.  Current propagation of the south
central KS storms, are moving to the NW, towards the KGBD taf site.
So will go with VCTS for the KGBD and KHUT taf sites.  Will also
include VCTS for the KCNU taf site, as outflows from the convection
to east of CNU may propagate back to west.  Think most of the
convection is diurnally driven, with most of the convection expected
to wane a couple of hours after sunset.

VFR conditions are expected overnight into Fri.

There is another chance of isolated storms across south central KS
on Fri afternoon. For now, will not include a VCTS in for this
chance, as pinning down the location of any storms is too far out to
pinpoint just yet.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  95  71  94 /  30  20  20  20
Hutchinson      70  95  70  94 /  50  20  20  20
Newton          71  94  70  93 /  50  20  20  20
ElDorado        70  93  70  92 /  30  20  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   73  94  72  93 /  30  20  20  20
Russell         68  94  69  93 /  60  10  20  20
Great Bend      68  95  69  94 /  60  10  20  20
Salina          71  94  70  93 /  50  20  20  20
McPherson       70  94  69  93 /  50  20  20  20
Coffeyville     74  93  72  92 /  20  30  20  20
Chanute         73  92  72  91 /  20  30  20  20
Iola            72  91  71  90 /  20  30  20  20
Parsons-KPPF    73  92  72  91 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE...Ketcham
SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...Ketcham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
352 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-032100-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
352 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Heat indices range from 100 to around 105 degrees through early
this evening.

There is a chance for thunderstorms this evening and overnight.
Any storms that develop or move into the area this evening, mainly
across far southeast Kansas and areas of central Kansas to the west
of I-135, will be capable of strong to locally damaging wind gusts
of 55 to 65 mph and nickel to quarter sized hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There will be periodic chances for thunderstorms through the 4th of
July weekend and into early next week. While the risk for organized
and widespread severe storms is low, a few strong to marginally
severe storms with strong winds and hail will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
927 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

KSZ047-030330-
Barton KS-
927 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Barton County in central Kansas...

* Until 1030 PM CDT.

* At 924 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Pfeifer...moving southeast at
  45 mph.

* Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.  This
  wind is expected ahead of the main storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Hoisington, Claflin, Albert, Olmitz, Galatia, Susank, Cheyenne
  Bottoms and Odin.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3870 9903 3870 9849 3841 9849 3844 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 0226Z 300DEG 38KT 3874 9909

METZGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
931 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TSTM WND GST     RUSSELL                 38.89N 98.85W
07/02/2020  M58 MPH          Russell            KS   ASOS

            MESASURED WIND AT RUSSELL AIRPORT.

&&

METZGER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
945 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 PM     TSTM WND GST     RUSSELL                 38.89N 98.85W
07/02/2020  M68 MPH          Russell            KS   ASOS

            MEASURED AT THE RUSSELL AIRPORT.

&&

METZGER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1005 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 ESE WILSON LAKE       38.93N 98.48W
07/02/2020  E60 MPH          LINCOLN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS BLOWING DUST AND DIRT 5 TO 8 FT HIGH.

&&

METZGER