River Flood Warning 24, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
635 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Short term forecast remains rather active and has under gone some
decent changes from previous runs.  Short term models are having
difficulty resolving the event for this afternoon and tonight as the
long wave trough is beginning to move through the region.  Previous
runs had a slower progression with the main trigger for this
afternoon thunderstorms and likely severe weather being driven the
mid level short wave that is now moving through the region.  New
model runs are now showing a much more progressive long wave trough
which is now in phase with the weaker shortwave trough over the
western portions of Kansas.

There are two main areas of contention between the models at this
time with the lack of agreement on the moisture transport and
resultant moisture axis being the most prominent.  The GFS is much
weaker on the moisture transport and keeps the bulk of the transport
further to the south in Oklahoma while the NAM is more bullish.  The
NAM solution brings a prominent moisture axis into Central Kansas by
this evening which would support a significant round of thunderstorm
activity with a good portions of it severe in nature.  Upper level
winds are much better this time round and 12Z analysis charts have
300mb winds in the 45-55kt range providing some decent exhaust for
thunderstorms to work with.  The short range CAMS are also in
significant disagreement on the thunderstorm focal point and many of
them turn the thunder off shortly after sunset tonight for much of
the CWA. This does not seem likely but could see the severe weather
abate by this time if the model predictions of the 300mb winds
weakening during the late afternoon and evening which would keep
the chances for severe weather down in the evening hours. Currently
looking for some thunderstorm activity during the evening hours in
South Central Kansas with a good chance some of it will be severe
but it is expected to be more isolated.

Monday and Tuesday will have the long wave trough pushing further to
the east which will kick the winds around to the north and west and
will bring the temperatures down some as well.  The moisture
transport looks to remain well to the south by this time as the long
wave through and the northerly flow will keep it out of the region.
This does not mean we will be completely out of the thunderstorm
business but is it unlikely that severe weather will return for
Monday and Tuesday.  This northerly flow and likely lingering cloud
cover will keep temperatures down for Monday and especially Tuesday.

Metzger

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

The change in the short term models has also forced a change in the
extended range.  The extended now looks to be a little warmer than
previous runs but also a little more active.  The frontal boundary
looks to want to stall to the south of the region which will keep
the chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Intensity
of this activity can't be determined at this time due to how far out
this activity is.  That said, orientation does indicate there could
be some chances for strong to severe thunderstorms with some of this
activity.  Temperatures will seasonable and become hot but the
proximity of thunderstorm activity will keep the temperatures down
and prevent them from getting too far above normal if at all.

Metzger

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Areas of showers and thunderstorms will push through the region
during the first six hours of the TAF period. HUT and ICT will
bear the brunt of this activity with gusty winds, very heavy rain
and the possibility of some hail. GBD and RSL will be clearing
from this thunderstorm activity soon and should be clear by 2Z.
SLN will have intermittent thunderstorms and showers through
about 3Z. HUT and ICT are likely to clear the thunderstorm
activity in the 3-5Z range this evening as this line is becoming
more progressive. CNU is likely to escape all the thunderstorm
activity with showers possible toward 12Z. IFR conditions are
likely with the thunderstorm activity.

Metzger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    68  90  65  86 /  60  30  40   0
Hutchinson      66  86  62  84 /  80  20  30   0
Newton          66  85  62  83 /  70  30  40   0
ElDorado        68  85  63  82 /  60  30  40   0
Winfield-KWLD   69  86  65  85 /  70  30  50   0
Russell         63  87  59  85 /  80  20  30  10
Great Bend      63  87  60  85 /  80  20  20  10
Salina          64  87  61  85 /  90  20  30   0
McPherson       65  86  60  83 /  90  20  30   0
Coffeyville     69  85  65  84 /  70  40  50   0
Chanute         69  85  65  83 /  60  40  50   0
Iola            68  85  64  83 /  50  40  50   0
Parsons-KPPF    70  85  65  83 /  60  40  50   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...ELM

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