Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Wichita, KS

283 
WWUS83 KICT 150001
RFWICT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wichita KS
601 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

KSZ032-047-150115-
/O.EXP.KICT.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-201115T0000Z/
Russell-Barton-
601 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 032 AND 047...

Very high grassland fire danger will continue for a few hours this
evening, but widespread critical fire conditions are no longer
expected.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
316 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 316 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

Water vapor imagery shows shortwave tracking over the Northern
Intermountain/Central Great Basin with an associated strong upper
jet. At the surface, lee troughing continues to strengthen with a
strong low level jet already setup across the Plains.

Shortwave will quickly track east today and will be moving out
into the High Plains by early this afternoon. Ahead of this wave
strong southwest winds are expected by early this afternoon across
the Flint Hills into southeast KS. By late this afternoon weak
cold front is expected to move through with strong winds
following behind it over central KS. So will run with a wind
advisory for most of the area to account for both of these
situations. Models all agree that we stay mixed out into the early
evening, so we should see strong winds continue later than
typically expected. Be sure to check out fire weather section for
additional details.

A few storms may linger this morning across far southeast KS in
the 850-700mb theta-e advection regime but the majority of this
activity should be east of the forecast area by the late morning
hours.

By Sun afternoon shortwave trough will be tracking across the Ohio
Valley and Great Lakes region with strong northwest flow aloft
over the Plains. Northwest flow will remain over the area through
Monday. This will promote seasonal temps for Sun with high
confidence in above normal temps to start to work week.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 316 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

Good model agreement in upper ridging over the Rockies Mon night
and moving into the Plains for Tue. Meanwhile low amplitude
shortwave will be coming on shore over the Pacific Northwest which
will allow for a transition to more zonal flow over the Plains.
This will keep the warmer temps in place through the work week
with gusty winds expected on Wed, which should also be the warmest
day of the week, with much of the area seeing 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020

Scattered shower/thunderstorm chances will increase overnight
across far southeast KS, as low-level warm/moist advection
continues ahead of a weather disturbance approaching from the
west. The strongest activity will be capable of small hail and
brief heavy rain. Additionally, MVFR ceilings currently across
eastern Kansas should lower below 2000 ft later tonight into
Saturday morning across southeast KS, as moisture advection
continues. Furthermore, deepening low pressure will support
strong/gusty south to southwest winds developing Saturday morning,
with winds gradually switching to west-northwesterly in wake of a
cold front Saturday afternoon and evening. The west/northwest
winds in wake of the cold front could be very strong/gusty for a
time late afternoon-evening, especially west of the KS Turnpike.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

Very high grassland fire danger is expected area wide today with
a few counties west of I-135 flirting with extreme values.

Strong south/southwest winds will start off late this morning for
areas generally along and southeast of the KS Turnpike and will
continue into the afternoon. Weak cold front will slide into
central KS later this afternoon with strong west and northwest
winds behind it, generally after 2pm. Wind speeds area wide will
be in the 25 to 35 mph range with gusts around 40 mph. While
strong winds will elevated the grassland fire danger area wide,
the most critical values will be west of I-135, where RH values
will be lower. We are looking for afternoon RH values in the 20-25
percent range west of I-135 with values around 40% over the Flint
Hills.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  35  60  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      70  32  59  35 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          69  34  58  36 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        71  35  58  38 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   72  36  59  37 /  10   0   0   0
Russell         66  30  59  35 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      67  29  58  34 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          67  33  60  36 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       69  32  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     71  37  61  37 /  40  10   0   0
Chanute         70  37  59  38 /  30  10   0   0
Iola            70  37  58  38 /  30  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    71  37  60  38 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this evening
for KSZ052-053-068>070-082-083-091>094-098.

Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CST this evening
for KSZ032-033-047>051-067.

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST this
evening for KSZ032-047.

&&

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...RBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
428 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-142230-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
428 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered storms are possible tonight for areas generally southeast
of the Kansas Turnpike. The stronger storms may be capable of pea
to nickel sized hail and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A few storms may linger into Saturday morning across far southeast
Kansas. The stronger storms may be capable of small hail.

Breezy southwest winds will shift to the northwest behind a cold
front on Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening. This will result
in a very high grassland fire danger for much of the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict