Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
228 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

Deep pulse convection will tend to diminish in coverage early this
evening. CAMS indicate most activity will be from western and middle
TN through north AL. Meanwhile, the trough axis over southeast MO
and south along the MS River valley will advance eastward into
western TN and northern MS. This should spawn an MCS which will
produce very heavy rainfall just to our west late tonight. Areas of
fog are likely over north AL and southern middle TN late tonight,
especially in areas that receive a good amount of rainfall this
afternoon and early evening. Some of the fog may be dense.

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

The shortwave and MCS will slowly advance into northwest AL and
southern middle TN Thursday morning. It may tend to weaken late
tonight into early Thursday morning, thus, there is some uncertainty
on mode/timing/intensity Thursday. Outflow or differential heating
further east along the eastern periphery of the denser cloud shield
may be where initial redevelopment occurs on Thursday. Thus, not too
keen on categorical PoPs that were in the suggested blend. Will
continue to go "likely" areawide on Thursday, and we can adjust
upward as trends present themselves. Temperatures may be held in the
80s in northwest AL, but should rapidly jump into the l90s further
east before storms move in. Given high PW values and the possibility
of repetitive rainfall through Thursday night and Friday, locally
excessive rainfall is not out of the question. We certainly could use
the rain, but there could be a risk of flash flooding in spots.

The initial shortwave will be shifting east into eastern TN and north
GA late Thursday night into Friday morning. As the main upper low
over the OH valley pushes east on Friday, a secondary trough axis
will swing through the TN valley. This will bring additional
thunderstorm clusters through the region. The associated frontal
boundary may be the focus Friday afternoon and evening with this
wave as the NAM indicates. Area wide QPF will be in the 1-2 inch
range, but as stated before, locally higher amounts are likely.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

In general, the upper-level pattern has an amplifying upper-level
wave remaining fairly stationary over the CONUS, with an amplifying
ridge over the West and a deepening trough over the East. While the
cooler air likely won't make it this far south, we may see drier air
intrude into the Tennessee Valley going into early next week, which
is reflected in cooler overnight temperatures and lesser chances for
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, mainly confined to the mountains
of NE Alabama. There are some model discrepancies in how much dry
air makes it into the Tennessee Valley, which will determine how many
showers we actually see over the weekend into early next week. We
may see a cold front try and push through closer to midweek
associated with the deepening trough, but models are not in agreement
on how far south the cold front will get. More likely, it stays
north and we continue to see seasonable, diurnally-driven convection.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

SHRA and TSRA will become scattered to numerous by 21Z. Gusty winds,
+RA reducing visibility into the IFR temporarily, and frequent
lightning can be expected with TS this afternoon into early evening.
The activity should diminish in coverage after 00Z. Areas of FG are
likely to develop late tonight (after 09Z) and have included tempo
periods from 10-13Z of 3/4SM BR (IFR) at both KMSL and KHSV. After
the fog dissipates, VFR conditions are forecast. There will be
increasing SHRA and TSRA again after 16Z, but have left out of the
TAFs at this time.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...McCoy
AVIATION...17

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

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