Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
256 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

In the wake of this morning's convection, a partly sunny sky has
resulted in good heating, with 20z temperatures climbing into the mid
to upper 80s across much of the Tennessee Valley. The atmosphere has
quickly destabilized and is primed for another round of storms, with
SBCAPE values around 4000 J/Kg in area west of the I-65 corridor.
Latest satellite and observational trends indicate the convective
initiation will occur very shortly as convective temps are reached
and expect another round of scattered to numerous pulse storm due to
diurnal heating from mid this afternoon through late this evening.

Another focus for convection will be a stalled boundary just to the
NE of the area across Middle Tennessee into North Georgia. This
convection may slowly drift into the area (especially our eastern
zones) late this afternoon and evening. Given the rapid
destabilization that has taken place, a marginal risk for severe
weather is evident, mainly due to localized downbursts/damaging
winds. These cells will be poorly organized due to the limited deep-
layer shear. There should be a brief lull in the action late this
evening into the overnight hours. However, guidance is picking on the
remnants of an MCS across the Mid- Mississippi Valley hanging
together as it moves SE along the aforementioned boundaries late
tonight into early Wednesday morning -- and for this reason have
kept in some likely PoPs across our NE zones. However, confidence is
a little lower on this playing out so trends will need to be watched
closely this evening and overnight.

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Another day of active weather is expected on Wednesday as the weak
boundary pushes into North Alabama. There remains some question as to
whether there will be widespread AM convection along the boundary,
especially in areas east of I-65. Have a greater confidence that at
least some convection will be ongoing and have kept likely PoPs in
place for this reason. Regardless, expect a similar set up to today,
with even greater coverage of strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours, once the atmosphere
destabilizes and convective temps are realized. Additionally, models
are hinting at an MCS developing across the Ozarks/Mid-Mississippi
Valley by early afternoon, potentially riding the boundary into the
Tennessee Valley by the late afternoon into the early evening.
Confidence is still low on whether this will materialize, but we
could see a second wave of strong/severe storms into the evening
should this come together. Expect coverage of showers and storms
will diminish overnight as the boundary sags a little further to the
south and west by Thursday morning. Still think that we'll see some
decent coverage of diurnal convection, especially during the
afternoon/evening, but the threat for severe storms will be lower as
the better forcing will be displaced south of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

The weak front will drop south into the Gulf Coast region for Friday,
as a weak area of high pressure at the surface develops. this should
result in a mainly dry day on Friday, with only a few isolated storms
expected. Expect a gradual uptick in convection for the Fourth of
July holiday weekend into early next week as a surface low develops
across South Alabama/Georgia and drifts back to the north into the
Tennessee Valley. The end result will be scattered to numerous
diurnal convection each day and continued below normal temperatures
due to the cloud cover and precipitation chances, with highs in the
mid to upper 80s each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Thunderstorm activity has moved off to the east, and VFR conditions
prevail midday today. Expect pop-up showers and thunderstorms to
increase in coverage again after around 18-19Z, with earlier
development over NW Alabama. Cigs and vis will likely lower to
IFR/LIFR under these showers and thunderstorms. Storms will diminish
again after 00Z, with VFR conditions expected to prevail overnight.

Models are showing a bigger convective system rolling out of
Missouri sometime Wednesday morning. There is a lot of uncertainty on
the timing and track of this feature, but there is a chance of
showers and thunderstorms as early as 12Z or as late as 18-21Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM...AMP.24
LONG TERM...AMP.24
AVIATION...McCoy

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
251 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-011100-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
251 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north Alabama and portions of
southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the
Tennessee Valley this afternoon into this evening. Some of the
storms could become strong to marginally severe in intensity, capable
of producing strong, gusty outflow winds and locally heavy rainfall.
Another round of storms will be possible late tonight into early
Thursday morning as a weak front pushes into the region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday and
Thursday. Some storms on Wednesday could become strong to marginally
severe, with gusty outflow winds, hail, and torrential rainfall.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast on Friday and
Independence Day. Scattered to numerous storms are possible on
Sunday and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is
not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
508 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

ALZ001-002-302300-
Lauderdale AL-Colbert AL-
508 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LAUDERDALE AND
NORTHWESTERN COLBERT COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 507 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Waynesboro to 7 miles east of Walnut Grove
to near J P Coleman State Park. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Cherokee, Underwood-Petersville, Waterloo, Zip City, Threet, Mt
Hester, Margerum, Riverton, Wright and Oakland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong gusty winds will be capable of knocking down small tree limbs
along with other small unsecured items. Seek safe shelter until this
line of storms has passed.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike several miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 8761 3491 8765 3469 8803 3477 8812
      3489 8810 3492 8816 3496 8817 3500 8820
      3501 8820
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 310DEG 16KT 3532 8782 3507 8792 3489 8817

70/DD

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