Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Huntsville, AL

767 
WGUS74 KHUN 061637
FFSHUN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1037 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

ALC049-061646-
/O.EXP.KHUN.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200206T1645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DeKalb AL-
1037 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR DEKALB COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 1045 AM
CST...

Light to moderate rain will continue through the next hour, but 
heavy rain has ended.

An Areal Flood Warning remains in effect, including Big Wills Creek. 
Big Wills Creek is at 13.6 feet and nearly steady. It will slowly 
recede this afternoon.  Please continue to heed any remaining road 
closures.

LAT...LON 3448 8558 3444 8558 3437 8563 3436 8566
      3426 8577 3426 8581 3424 8581 3424 8584
      3420 8585 3420 8611 3443 8611 3447 8606
      3449 8597 3463 8578 3475 8569 3475 8566
      3483 8563 3486 8559 3453 8551

$$

Kula

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
530 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

.UPDATE...
For 12Z TAFS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today)
Issued at 305 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

The stalled frontal boundary from earlier has now moved further to
the east and is crossing into srn mid TN into north cntrl AL this
early Thu morning. Much of the area though east of the I-65 corridor
remains in the warm sector and likewise will continue to have a low
end chc for some embedded tstms, as showers continue to spread NE
along/just ahead of the slow moving front. The upper trough axis
moving ewd into the SE region later today will help nudge the front
further to the east. Lingering dynamic forcing through along the
approaching trough pattern will keep some rain chances in the
forecast into the afternoon hrs, although rainfall will be tapering
off to the east with the exiting cold front. Given the lingering
potential for some quick bursts of heavy rainfall along/just ahead of
the front into the daytime hrs, the Flash Flood Watch will remain in
affect for now, although the watch may be cancelled early later today
as the axis of heavier rainfall shifts to the east. Some cooler air
is trying to spread into NW AL in the wake of the frontal passage,
although the bulk of the cooler/drier air may be more delayed until
this evening. Likewise, temps may be near their max values this
morning, as cooler air gradually begins to spread into the area.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

The influx of cooler/drier air should increase going into the evening
hrs, as the upper trough axis begins to lift NE into the mid Atlantic
region. Rainfall likewise should quickly be coming to an end with the
drier mid level air out of the west, although rainfall may mix with
or briefly change over to light snow before ending. No impacts are
xpcted though given the warm ground temps. Temps will definitely
trend more seasonal into the day Fri, as clouds briefly diminish over
much of the area. Temps early Fri morning look to fall back into the
lower/mid 30s for most spots, before rebounding into the lower/mid
40s later in the day. Cloud cover and rain chances may then briefly
return on Sat, as an upper disturbance embedded within a more
longwave trough pattern quickly moves ewd over the region.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

The exiting upper disturbance from Sat should then be followed by
again a brief period of clearing skies and dry wx for the second half
of the weekend period. The latter half of the global models are then
suggesting a much more active wx pattern becoming established across
the region heading into the new work week. The first is a fast moving
sfc wave out of the mid/nrn Plains that will translate east and pull
a trailing cold front thru the area during the day on Mon. The latest
ECMWF/GFS then become a little divergent on their handling of the
passage of this cold front, and the subsequent upper pattern across
the region, as a more robust SW flow regime forms across much of the
SE states. In any case, multiple wx/storm systems out of the mid/srn
Plains should traverse ewd across the region into mid week, with
likely rain chances developing Mon thru Wed. This could potentially
cause issues on what may be ongoing elevated river/stream levels
across several points in the mid TN Valley area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 530 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

IFR cigs are in place this morning near the two main airports as a
result of the lingering -ra. Cold front is gradually moving ewd thru
north cntrl AL and should continue moving east into the daytime hrs.
MVFR cigs/vis remain possible with the -ra thru much of this morning
along/behind the exiting cold front. Ra should taper off to the east
late this afternoon into this evening with the passage of the front,
although MVFR cigs near 1K ft remain possible into the overnight hrs.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM...09
AVIATION...09

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
400 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-071000-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
400 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north Alabama and portions of
southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall will slowly end from west to
east during the afternoon, with the Flash Flood Watch remaining in
effect through 6 PM CST this afternoon.

Additionally, runoff from excessive rainfall will result in rises
along area creeks, rivers and streams, with some flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Runoff from excessive rainfall will result in additional rises along
area creeks, rivers and streams through Wednesday. Additional river
flooding is expected to continue along the Tennessee River watershed
and basin as well.

Isolated thunderstorms are also possible on Wednesday, as a storm
system moves eastward through the outlook area.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is
not anticipated at this time.