Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1218 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

.UPDATE...
Strong to severe thunderstorms with frequent spin ups. Tornado
watch continues mainly east of a line from Crockett to Bay City.
Have cancelled the tornado watch to the west of that line.

Numerous reports coming in of wind damage across the area.

This line should march east and in 2 hours should be out of the
area except perhaps the far coastal waters.

45
&&

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
Squall line moving through the Metro hubs and should be out of
there by 08-09z. Some patchy MVFR ceilings follow through roughly
15z with gusty northwest winds as the main front sweeps through
around 15z. Winds relaxing as Pacific high settles in across the
area late afternoon/early evening.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 651 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020/...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday Afternoon]...
9 PM to 1 AM Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado threat across the
region.

Very strong signature for an episode of severe weather
across the region overnight. Off the chart helicity values evident
in the CLL TAMU 21Z special sounding and the CRP/LCH 00Z all
showing strong to very strong shear across the region. As the
upper trough gets closer expect the narrow/small cap to erode and
strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. All this wind is
feeding in from the Gulf thanks to record breaking high pressure
over Bermuda and the vigorous upper low over TX/NM. LLJ of 50-65
knots exceeding the 30 year record for inflow at this time of year
and IVT is in the 6-7 standard anomaly! Tornado threat and these
could be strong tornadoes from discrete cells ahead of the line a
big concern overnight which quite a few of the high res models
are alluding to in the eastern CWA (roughly east of I-45) in the 9
pm to 2 am time frame. Closer to the front in the northwestern
counties still a potent tornado threat as well but may be more
embedded within the line. Strong damaging winds a large threat as
well across the region.

Showers near College Station were moving at 64 knots earlier...so
needless to say these are very likely to be extremely fast moving
storms!

On a different note have lowered temperatures after 5 am
throughout the day tomorrow given the current CAA trends and short
term guidance.
45

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Friday]...

Saturday night will be the coldest night of the weekend and on through
next week with lows near or a couple degrees above freezing generally
to the north of the I-10 corridor. Gradually warming temperatures then
begin on Sunday and continue until the next cold front moves through
the area late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Before the front comes,
we expect to see highs getting back into the 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday.
After the front moves on through, we will cool back down, but freezing
temperatures are not anticipated at this time.

As for rain, chances come back into the forecast beginning late Sunday
and on Monday as moisture levels begin to rise again, and they persist
until the midweek front. This front doesn't make it too far off the
coast, so will keep lingering rain chances in the forecast. 42

.MARINE...

Strong onshore winds will persist through the late evening hours or
just before a long ragged line of thunderstorms move across the
local bay and Gulf waters from around midnight tonight through 3 or
4 AM tomorrow morning. Overnight storms will rapidly deteriorate
conditions...a quick strengthening of variable winds to over 40
knots and agitated seas. Small Craft Advisories will be in effect
for all waters except for Galveston Bay (where Cautions are in
effect) and, if possible, smaller craft should remain in port
through tomorrow afternoon.

Once thunderstorms and showers travel east of the area, expect
strong northwest winds to kick in across the western waters at mid
morning...eastern waters during the late morning hours. These
offshore winds will stay up in the near 20-25 knot to near gale gust
range through 4 or 5 PM before quickly falling off Saturday evening.
Backing high pressure moving over the Southeastern U.S. on Sunday
will have winds veering back around to east-southeast Sunday
morning. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  52  33  62  44  67 /   0   0   0   0  30
Houston (IAH)          56  37  63  49  67 /   0   0   0  20  40
Galveston (GLS)        59  47  63  57  68 /   0   0   0  40  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
     Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
     to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay...Waters from
     Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
     NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this afternoon for
     the following zones: Galveston Bay.

&&

UPDATE/MARINE/AVIATION...45
DSS/SEVERE OPS 41/47/25/39/CADY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1146 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW THE WOODLANDS     30.13N 95.55W
01/10/2020                   HARRIS             TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            CREW IN HAVEN LAKES ESTATES AREA REPORTED
            DOWNED TREES NEAR KUYKENDAHL RD & HUFSMITH
            RD.

&&

TJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1156 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 W RIVERSIDE           30.83N 95.52W
01/10/2020                   WALKER             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF COLLAPSE ON MOBILE HOME.

&&

TJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1159 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1132 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW THE WOODLANDS     30.14N 95.54W
01/10/2020                   HARRIS             TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES DOWN ON HOME ON DRYBROOK RD, CAUSING A
            GAS LEAK.

&&

TJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1202 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1009 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ESE WIXON VALLEY      30.72N 96.25W
01/10/2020                   BRAZOS             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF BLOWN OFF HOME. DAMAGE TO TREES AND
            POWER LINES.

&&

TJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1214 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW EAGLE LAKE        29.58N 96.34W
01/10/2020                   COLORADO           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LINE OF TREE AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE NEAR S
            MCCARTY AVE.

&&

TJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1218 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1117 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW STAGECOACH        30.13N 95.75W
01/10/2020                   MONTGOMERY         TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DAMAGE REPORTED AT NICHOLLS SAWMILL RD
            AND BUTERA RD.

&&

TJC