Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
527 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

.SHORT TERM [Today through Tonight]...

Another foggy and wet start is expected this morning, but activity
may be increasing later this morning as a line of showers/thunder-
storms approaches from the west. The elevated onshore winds should
keep visibilities from falling too much more, and not anticipating
any addition/extension of our current Dense Fog Advisories (as the
sea fog lingers along the coast).

Elevated rain chances should continue across SE TX today given the
large scale lift already in place...which will be further enhanced
by the progged development of a surface low through this afternoon.
While the majority of the activity will likely be along an east-to-
west line across our northern counties, the possibility of strong/
severe storms should exist across the entire CWA (Marginal Risk as
per SPC Day 1 Outlook). However, instability should remain limited
through this afternoon/early evening. We are still looking for the
highest rainfall totals over the northern half of the CWA, with 1-
2 inch averages...one quarter to one half over the southern half.
We should see the bulk of this more organized development move off
to the E/SE this evening...but the slow trek of the upper low will
help to keep wrap-around cloud cover and rain in the forecast into
the overnight hours. 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday through Wednesday]...

Dry/quiet weather on tap for Thurs and Fri as the upper ridge builds
in from the west. The return of onshore winds and an increasingly SW
flow aloft is forecast by the weekend. This should allow for warming
temperatures through the start of next week. As the southern jet be-
comes more active, increased rain chances are progged to return late
Sun...with POPs likely going up Mon/Tues with the passage of a fair-
ly well-defined/fast moving shortwave and an associated cold front.
41

&&

.MARINE...

Winds have backed inland and into Galveston Bay with dense fog in
obs and coastal webcams. As pressures fall over the Hill Country
expect winds near the coast to veer back to the southeast and
strengthen a little which will probably only keep the fog threat
high. As the low moves through SETX expect a cold front to swing
through from west to east and turn winds to the west and northwest
this afternoon into the evening. This should finally end the fog
threat. In the meantime swells will continue with the long fetch and
seas of 5-6 feet should be pretty common through the mid afternoon
hours (SCEC). With the winds swinging around to the W and NW winds
should strengthen and build seas into SCA conditions this evening.
The offshore flow continues as high pressure settles into the state
then slowly slides east with SCA to SCEC conditions on tap through
Friday even with slight lull Thursday.  High pressure finally slides
east and easterly onshore flow commences Saturday and gradually
comes around to the southeast Sunday with richer moisture arriving
Monday and Tuesday and could be back into a fog threat again.
45

&&

.AVIATION...

VLIFR near the coast to IFR at CXO and MVFR at UTS with fog
across the southern half of the area and areas of dense fog near
the coast. VLIFR-IFR should continue through late morning 15-17z
before gradually improving inland. Rain chances increasing today
with showers the main threat though isolated thunderstorms
certainly possible especially across the north and VCTS or TEMPO
TSRA should be the norm - CLL around 16z and UTS/CXO around 18z.
Showers will probably still be going on across much of the area
from GLS-11R northeastward underneath the lagging upper trough
late this afternoon through midnight. Wrap around MVFR deck will
likely linger into Thursday 18z. 45

&&

.CLIMATE...

Another warm day yesterday with the record high minimum temperature
tied at HOU - 69 degrees previously 1985. At Galveston overnight
temperature only bottomed out at 67 degrees which was 1 degree
warmer than the old record of 66 from 1945. With the front coming
through no records should fall today.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      69  51  71  47  71 / 100  60   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              75  54  72  51  72 /  80  40   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            73  55  70  55  69 /  60  20   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
     zones: Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...
     Coastal Galveston...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...
     Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Galveston...
     Matagorda Islands.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM CST this afternoon for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
     Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
     to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this afternoon for
     the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
     Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
958 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

TXZ163-176-177-041630-
Walker TX-Madison TX-Houston TX-
958 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN HOUSTON...EASTERN MADISON
AND NORTHWESTERN WALKER COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 AM CST...

At 958 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Grapeland to 7 miles southeast of Bedias.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Crockett, Austonio, Grapeland, Lovelady and Latexo.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until noon CST for
southeastern Texas.

LAT...LON 3155 9531 3078 9551 3080 9585 3109 9580
      3109 9577 3114 9577 3116 9573 3121 9575
      3123 9573 3127 9573 3132 9566 3134 9566
      3135 9568 3136 9566 3140 9570 3146 9571
TIME...MOT...LOC 1558Z 254DEG 34KT 3154 9554 3068 9589

TJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1020 AM CST WED MAR 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0909 AM     HAIL             6 NNW UR089             30.79N 96.42W
03/04/2020  E1.00 INCH       BRAZOS             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1037 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

TXZ163-164-041700-
Houston TX-Trinity TX-
1037 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TRINITY AND
NORTHEASTERN HOUSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM CST...

At 1036 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Crockett, moving east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kennard.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until noon CST for
southeastern Texas.

LAT...LON 3154 9514 3152 9510 3150 9509 3149 9511
      3147 9510 3146 9507 3147 9506 3144 9504
      3144 9501 3142 9500 3141 9498 3140 9498
      3139 9496 3126 9538 3145 9545 3155 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 1636Z 251DEG 30KT 3134 9533

TJC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1059 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

TXZ163-164-041730-
Houston TX-Trinity TX-
1059 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TRINITY AND EAST
CENTRAL HOUSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM CST...

At 1058 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Apple Springs, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Apple Springs, Groveton and Centralia.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until noon CST for
southeastern Texas.

LAT...LON 3138 9495 3135 9496 3134 9496 3134 9491
      3133 9490 3130 9489 3128 9488 3126 9490
      3125 9487 3123 9486 3121 9486 3118 9485
      3115 9485 3105 9516 3131 9521 3139 9496
TIME...MOT...LOC 1658Z 245DEG 35KT 3121 9513

TJC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1105 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

TXZ176-177-198-041730-
Walker TX-Madison TX-Grimes TX-
1105 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GRIMES...SOUTH
CENTRAL MADISON AND WEST CENTRAL WALKER COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM CST...

At 1105 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bedias, or 15 miles southwest of Madisonville, moving northeast at 35
mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Madisonville, Bedias and Iola.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until noon CST for
southeastern Texas.

LAT...LON 3068 9603 3075 9615 3102 9603 3089 9573
TIME...MOT...LOC 1705Z 216DEG 29KT 3077 9605

TJC