Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
417 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)

A nearly stationary boundary is draped across SE TX from the NE to
SW and convection has developed and remained anchored close to
this boundary. PW values are between 1.95 and 2.25 inches and
heavy rain has developed over parts of the area. Over 7 inches of
rain near Garwood overnight and up to 3 inches in SW Harris
county. The HiRes NMM and TT WRF initialized best and have leaned
toward their solutions this morning. Have added locally heavy rain
for this morning and extended the FFA to 15z. Convection should
begin to wane between 15-18z with more scattered activity expected
further west giving the rain soaked areas along the US 59 corridor
a chance to temporarily dry out. Clouds and precip should keep
MaxT under climo again today.

Tonight, another strong disturbance will move into the western
half of the CWA and provide for another chance of showers and
thunderstorms over mainly the western half of the CWA. With PW
values remaining at or above 2.00 inches, feel locally heavy rain
will remain a threat, mainly over the western half of the area.
Daytime heating and a weakness aloft will allow for scattered
showers and thunderstorms on Friday but PW values begin to drop
and coverage should be less than the past couple of days.  43

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Thursday]...

Although most of the heavy activity from the day is expected to be
decreasing Friday night, high moisture rates remain in place could
keep a few lingering showers and thunderstorms alive throughout the
night Friday. A weak upper level shortwave is expected to move
across TX Saturday and even though we may have Saharan dust (SAL)
filtering in from the Gulf of Mexico as well as lower PWs, unstable
air mass could result in some isolated to scattered activity for
Southeast Texas during the daytime. A similar weather pattern can be
expected Sunday as a surge of low level moisture from the Gulf moves
across the local area in the afternoon.

The local weather will gradually become a little more muted this
upcoming week in response to the sub-tropical ridge expanding into
TX. This will luckily be the dominant weather feature through mid
week, giving us a bit of a respite in the current ongoing heavy
rainfall. Note: Some of the models do show an upper level low/trough
moving into the Great Plains mid week which could retract the high a
bit west and south. If it does, this could increase our chances of
rain. The GFS is a bit more aggressive, keeping the low over the
Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri and Iowa area through the end of the work
week, while the EC is not as progressive and keeps us under a weak
area of high pressure. Due these inconsistencies, will stay
conservative with the PoPs (30% or less) for next week into the end
of the forecast period.

High temperatures will rise back into the low 90s this weekend in
response to lower cloud coverage and the lovely dust. Rising heights
next week will yield high temperatures in the mid 90s range. Heat
indicies will also be on the rise as well, reaching the low to mid
100s Monday through Thursday. 24

&&

&&

.MARINE...

The pressure gradient will tighten today in response to deepening
low pressure in the lee of the Rockies. Onshore winds will
strengthen in response and a SCEC has been issued for the Gulf
waters and adjacent bays for today. The SCEC may need to be
extended tonight as moderate onshore winds persist. A moderate
onshore flow will persist through the weekend and SCECs will
likely be required into the weekend. The persistent onshore flow
will maintain slightly tides through Sunday with water levels near
3.0 feet at high tide through Sunday. Beachgoers should also
remain alert for rip currents as the long onshore fetch will
create rough surf on Gulf facing beaches. 43

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      87  72  87  74  90 /  60  60  70  20  30
Houston (IAH)              86  76  86  76  90 /  70  50  50  20  40
Galveston (GLS)            86  81  86  80  87 /  70  40  30  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for the following
     zones: Austin...Colorado...Fort Bend...Inland Harris...
     Waller...Wharton.

GM...NONE.
&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
415 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 AM     FLASH FLOOD      10 SSW EAGLE LAKE       29.45N 96.40W
06/25/2020                   COLORADO           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGH WATER REPORTED IN GARWOOD ON FM 950.

&&

CR

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