Beach Hazards Statement 7, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
613 AM CDT Tue May 12 2020

.SHORT TERM [Today through Tomorrow]...

Overnight storms moving in from the west will be the focus for ac-
tivity across SE TX today. Short-range models have been hinting at
this the last day or so but have been a bit ambivalent about it as
progged moisture levels have been less than ideal. However...given
the current trends and indications of an embedded speed max in the
MCV, have increased POPs over our W/NW counties for today. The SPC
Day 1 outlook also has this area in a Marginal Risk with forecasts
of moderate instability and shear values. Damaging winds appear to
be the primary threat at this time.

We should see a break overnight with the passage of the shortwave.
But, rain chances are set to return tomorrow as there are hints of
another disturbance moving across from the west. With the air mass
still destabilized and moisture lingering over the region, showers
and thunderstorms will be possible once again. And so, despite the
elevated POPs/increased cloud cover, temperatures will continue to
warm the next day or so. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s for
both days with lows tonight in the upper 60s and lower 70s. 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Tomorrow Night through Tuesday]...

A rather wet/active forecast looks to be setting up for SE TX thru
the rest of the week into the upcoming weekend. With a moderate to
strong SE low-level flow progged for Thurs/Fri...the increasing PW
and moisture levels across the area along with daytime heating and
the seabreeze (or perhaps another stray shortwave aloft) should be
enough for some isolated/widely scattered mainly daytime activity.
Will keep POPs in the 20-40% range for this time period...with the
higher numbers inland. Rain chances could be increasing dramatical-
ly for Sat/Sun as the global models track a rather well-defined up-
per low into the state. Current progs are in decent agreement with
this system moving across SE TX (or very close to) with some very,
very high POPs through the weekend. Will be interesting to see how
this one pans out. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
Patchy MVFR ceiling showing up in the obs but NT microphysics
imagery showing it getting larger in area and shifting northeast
through the parts of the area while mid levels showing
destabilization and confirmed by radar with some virga or possibly
sprinkles from near 66R-SGR-GLS. RAP has done a good job in the
short term with placement and trends in reflectivity. Expecting the
area of showers with the s/w over PEZ to continue moving northeast
and slowly weaken through 16z then probably increase in intensity
with presence of greater LL moisture.  This would lead to a need for
for CLL area 17-02z. Not as confident that it will get to much
further east reaching the UTS/IAH/SGR TAF sites. Will probably stick
with the mid-afternoon VCSH in the coming 12z package. This s/w
should be departing the area by early evening and lingering
rainshowers dissipating. MVFR ceiling should develop in the more
moist WAA flow across the region overnight. Toward morning Wednesday
though will be watching the next s/w headed toward SETX may need to
add some VCTS/VCSH for the end of the TAF to CLL and possibly IAH in
the last period.
45
&&

.MARINE...
SCEC conditions over the Gulf with winds creeping up today and
slowly building seas. Overnight expect SCEC and possibly SCA
conditions to develop and would not be surprised to see an SCA come
out for the area in the afternoon package covering the evening hours
as it may be close between SCEC/SCA. Gradient remains about the same
through Friday then increases as unsettled weather develops over TX
shifting eastward through the weekend.

Tides showing astronomical tide levels to be slowly decreasing the
remainder of the week but with elevated tide levels already in place
about 1 foot above the astronomical could easily see strong rip
currents today and peaking near 3 feet during high tide late this
morning/early afternoon. And repeating through Thursday. Will be
issuing a beach hazard statement shortly for strong rips and
elevated tide levels.

45
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      86  70  88  71  88 /  50  50  20  20  40
Houston (IAH)              84  70  86  72  86 /  20  40  20  20  40
Galveston (GLS)            83  75  83  75  82 /  20  30  20  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this evening for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
     Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
     to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay...Waters from
     Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...
     Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&