Small Craft Advisory 3, NWS Honolulu, HI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1013 AM HST Tue Jan 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A mostly dry pattern is expected through Friday, with only a few
clouds and showers developing over interior and mountain areas
during the afternoons. A front is expected to stall and weaken
near Kauai Friday night, with trades then briefly returning over
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure northeast of Hawaii is moving away to the east as a
front passes north of the state today. As a result, winds have
weakened considerably from yesterday and will continue to
decrease through tonight as a ridge of high pressure moves over
the state. Light winds will allow a land and sea breeze regime to
setup through Friday. Rain chances will remain limited through
Friday due to the dry atmosphere and strong subsidence from the
ridge. The best chance for clouds and light showers will be across
interior areas during the afternoon hours each day.

A second front will pass north of the state Thursday into Friday
with the tail end of the front approaching Kauai. The front is
expected to dissipate as it reaches Kauai late Friday and bring a
uptick in showers late Friday and possible through the weekend.
Trade winds are expected to briefly return over the weekend as a
weak high quickly passes north of the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
Throughout the remainder of the TAF period, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail across the island chain and no
AIRMETs are in effect.

Winds have continued to weaken this morning across the Aloha
State and will continue to as a surface high moves away from our
area. With the surface front pulling away, weak trade winds will
shift to the southeast, and a daytime sea breeze/nighttime land
breeze pattern will continue through the week.

Due to relatively stable and dry conditions across Hawaii, no
AIRMETs are in effect and are not anticipated at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure to the northeast of the area will provide moderate
SE trade winds today. Over the next couple of days, the high will
move east, allowing for lighter winds to push across the islands
from west to east today, then remain light and variable into
Friday. A large northwest swell will increase seas above SCA
levels starting Wednesday. A new high will bring trade winds back
over the weekend.

The current NNW swell will decline through this evening. A large,
long-period northwest swell is expected to arrive tonight, peak
Wednesday night, then lower into Friday. The WW3 indicates surf
heights reaching High Surf Warning levels along most north and
west facing shores during the peak of this swell. Another large
northwest swell is expected to build late Friday, peak Saturday
at warning levels as well, then lower through Sunday.

Small background south swells will remain through the weekend. With
the expected drop off in trade winds over the next few days, short
period choppy surf will diminish along east facing shores. Some
south and east facing shores may see localized higher surf from
the large northwest swells refracting around islands and reefs.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Kino/Donaldson
AVIATION...EV/Dye
MARINE...TS