Gale Warning 11, NWS Honolulu, HI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
958 AM HST Sat Dec 26 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will linger near the islands for one more day
today with drier conditions expected statewide Sunday through
Wednesday. The current breezy trades will ease and shift around
to the east-southeast Sunday night through the middle of next
week, with some VOG possibly lifting northward into the smaller
islands, most likely Tuesday and Wednesday. Trade winds should
return Thursday and become breezy on New Years Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A stationary front, over the islands continues to produce clouds
and showers over the western half of the state this morning. For
rest of the day today, this trend will continue with frequent
showers over parts of Kauai and Oahu. These showers will generally
trend down this evening as some drier air moves in. Trade winds
will also ramp up this evening and could become strong and gusty
for a few hours. Over the eastern half of the state, showers will
be on the increase later today over Maui County, and this evening
into tonight for the Big Island as moisture increases. An upper
level low dropping south, could produce some brief downpours over
a few areas on windward Big Island tonight.

By Sunday, the front should be dissipated and we should see much
drier weather return across the state. The one exception could be
the Kona slopes of the Big Island, where lingering moisture and
instability will be capable of producing some brief downpours
during the afternoon. Otherwise, we should see moderate to locally
breezy trades with a few isolated showers.

For the first half of next week, a front passing well north of
the state will cause the trade winds to weaken and gradually veer
toward the southeast. With the winds veering toward the
southeast, we could potentially see some VOG light northward
toward the smaller islands around Tuesday or Wednesday. The
weather for the most part will be mostly dry, with a few isolated
windward and mountain showers.

&&

.AVIATION...
A weakening stationary front continues to produce widespread MVFR
and localized IFR conditions in clouds and SHRA over Kauai, Oahu,
and Molokai this morning, and an upper level trough passing
overhead is triggering thunderstorms just 50 miles to the
northeast of the Molokai along the front. AIRMET Sierra for
mountain obscuration remains in effect for these islands and will
likely stay in place through the day as the front moves little. A
drier trade wind flow will produce isolated MVFR conditions on
windward portions of Maui and the Big Island today. Tonight, the
upper trough will leave behind a compact upper low that will drift
just east of the Big Island. Expect shower activity along the
front to diminish, though MVFR conditions will likely persist
along windward slopes from Molokai to Kauai. A small area of
moisture in the trade wind flow will graze the Big Island
overnight, increasing chances for MVFR conditions on windward
slopes.

Trade winds are increasing, especially along and north of the
front, as high pressure passes north of the islands. Stronger
winds will produce tempo moderate low level turbulence over and
south through west of mountain ranges, and AIRMET Tango has been
posted. The passing upper level disturbance will also produce
tempo moderate turbulence aloft between FL250-350 across most
islands today, then move near the Big Island tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
An eastward tracking high far north of the area will produce
fresh to locally strong trade winds this weekend. As a result,
a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is posted for all coastal waters
through tonight. Choppy surf along east facing shores may approach
High Surf Advisory levels tonight into Sunday morning, before
tapering off early next week.

The current northwest swell continues to trend downward, with a small,
reinforcement from the same direction expected late Sunday. This
will be followed by a more significant, advisory-level northwest
swell Monday night. A larger northwest swell is forecast to arrive
on Tuesday and peak on Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Surf
from this larger swell should produce warning level surf along
most north and west facing shores.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for all Hawaiian
waters-

&&

DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...Wroe
MARINE...Foster