Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Gray, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
628 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area for the rest of this afternoon
and evening before moving offshore tonight. Some storms may
produce damaging winds. Cooler and drier weather develops Sunday
into Monday. The next chance for widespread rainfall will occur
Monday night into Wednesday. High pressure arrives late in the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Update...Mesoanalysis shows a pretty impressive severe
environment for October remains in place over much of the
forecast area. Mid level lapse rates around 8 C/km are still
support MLCAPE around 500 J/kg despite loss of daytime heating.
More than enough shear exists for storm organization as well. So
for the next several hours we will be in the delicate balance
between the nocturnally stabilizing boundary layer and the
strongly forced convection. I am continuing the severe wording
for some areas and gusty winds elsewhere past sunset as
initially the dynamics should be able to overcome whatever
shallow inversion develops near the surface.

Previous discussion...At 18Z the cold front was draped from
Lake Ontario northeastwards towards Quebec city, with convection
just beginning to develop in upstate New York.

This front will be moving into a fairly unstable airmass for
October. With sunny skies all morning temperatures have climbed
to the low 70s across the western portion of the region with mid
60s for coastal and eastern portions of the CWA. With the warmer
temperatures comes more humidity and dewpoints are in the low
50s on the Mass line. Steady SWly winds gusting to 20kts will
continue to push in higher dewpoints ahead of the front for the
next several hours.

With an unstable airmass and a strong forcing mechanism
conditions are primed for thunderstorms. 18Z KGYX sounding in
progress shows very steep midlevel lapse rates, with only a
slight cap in the low levels. The upper level winds are also
very robust, with significant wind shear in the lowest 3000ft
generated by both a veering from SW at the sfc to more W aloft
and increasing to 40kts. This amount of bulk shear will support
line segments capable of producing damaging winds. Additional
the directional shear in the low levels may allow for some more
super cellular structures to develop ahead of the main front,
providing a low tornado risk. There are already hints of this in
upstate NY.

Timing and structure of this frontal passage has remained very
consistent over the past 24 hours. Expect the storms in upstate
NY now to move SE eventually reaching the southern New Hampshire
around 6pm. Also expecting more convection to form on the more
northern part of the front near Quebec city and this will move
into northern Maine and the mountains at about the same time.
With such robust forcing expect the convection to extend after
dark by a few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday will be dominated by post frontal NWly flow as cooler and
dries air moves in from Canada. Expect highs a solid 10 degrees
cooler than today. While there may be some gusty winds
initially, winds will diminish by afternoon. With the calming
winds and cooler and drier airmass comes an opportunity for a
cold night. Have lowered temperatures well into the 20s across
the northern half of the CWA with only the more southern coastal
sections holding out above freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Some rainfall expected early this week, however there are model
differences in the QPF from run to run and model to model. This
leads us to relatively low confidence whether or not a
widespread, soaking rainfall will materialize across portions of the
region.

The remains of Delta and its accompanying moisture pinwheel to
the northeast early next week. This will likely spread some
light rainfall into southernmost New Hampshire Monday into
Monday night as the system reaches the Mid Atlantic coast which
will spread northeast with time.

The 12Z operational model suite continues to have some
disagreement as to where the precipitation heads from there. The
Canadian run is very robust with precipitation on Tuesday, while
other operational models shift the axis of heaviest
precipitation to our south and out to sea. Considering how dry
it continues to be, would rather lean towards the drier scenario
until we can finally shift out of this pattern. Nevertheless,
some areas may see a half inch to an inch of rainfall with this
scenario.

With low cloudiness and some rain, temperatures will be held
into the 50s for daytime highs on Monday with 50s to lower 60s
by Tuesday.

A weak short wave will cross the region Wednesday. This will
allow for scattered showers. The fast flow continues with
another system approaching the forecast area Thursday before
allowing a cold front to cross the region on Friday. There are
mixed signals in the models with this feature as well with some
runs developing a wave of low pressure along a slow moving front
for a potentially showery Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term... A line of thunderstorms will briefly impact all
terminals this afternoon dropping conditions to MVFR and
potentially briefly IFR in heavy rain. Have tried to limit the
time period with thunder to a few hours, although showers may
extend for another hour or two beyond the front. VFR will
continue both before and after the front and into Sunday as high
pressure begins to build in behind the departing cold front.

Long Term...The low clouds and light rainfall enter southernmost
New Hampshire on Monday with conditions lowering to MVFR and
IFR. The lowered ceilings spread east Monday night and Tuesday.
Generally VFR conditions thereafter, despite a few scattered
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term... Starting to see an increase in SWly winds ahead of
a cold front that is expected to cross the waters later this
evening. Strongest winds gusts are towards the east where Mt.
Desert Rock is gusting to 37kts. With the front still
approaching the area will go ahead and hold the Gale warning as
it as a few gusts to 35kts are possible through evening.

Long Term...Winds and seas will build ahead of an area of low
pressure and cold front during the midweek period and again
late in the week ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ153.
     Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150>152-154.

&&

NEAR TERM...Legro

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gray ME
204 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

ANZ150>152-154-111815-
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Penobscot Bay-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out 25 NM-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
204 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

Thunderstorms with gusty winds may move over the waters between 5 pm
and 10 pm today. Wind gusts of 35 knots or more will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ153-111815-
Casco Bay-
204 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms with gusty winds may move over the waters between 5 pm
and 10 pm today. Wind gusts of 35 knots or more will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

MEZ014-018>028-NHZ010>015-111815-
Southern Somerset-Interior York-Central Interior Cumberland-
Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-
Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-Strafford-Cheshire-
Eastern Hillsborough-Interior Rockingham-Coastal Rockingham-
Western And Central Hillsborough-
204 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, south central Maine,
southwest Maine, New Hampshire, central New Hampshire and southern
New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the forecast
area late this afternoon and evening. A few of the storms may
contain
strong gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

MEZ007>009-012-013-033-NHZ001>009-111815-
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Oxford-
Southern Franklin-Interior Cumberland Highlands-Northern Coos-
Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-Southern Grafton-
Southern Carroll-Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap-
204 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Maine, western
Maine, central New Hampshire and northern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the forecast
area late this afternoon and evening. A few of the thunderstorms may
be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and isolated
tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
652 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

NHZ002-003-102345-
Northern Grafton-Southern Coos-
652 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN GRAFTON COUNTY...

At 651 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Orange, or 7
miles southeast of Barre, moving east at 55 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bethlehem, Lincoln, Haverhill, Franconia, Woodstock, Carroll, Lisbon,
Bath, Benton, Easton, Livermore, Landaff, Lyman, Sugar Hill and
Monroe.

This includes Interstate 93 between mile markers 100 and 120.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 4408 7205 4408 7203 4409 7205 4409 7203
      4410 7203 4410 7205 4411 7206 4412 7205
      4413 7203 4419 7206 4424 7205 4426 7206
      4430 7145 4401 7145 4404 7208
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 268DEG 48KT 4415 7237

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