Beach Hazards Statement 10, NWS Gray, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
315 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will settle overhead over the next
several days. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase
moving forward toward the beginning of the week. Today will be
mostly dry as an area of rain and thunderstorms moves just south
of the forecast area, possibly catching a portion of southern
New Hampshire. Showers and thunderstorms become likely Sunday
afternoon with a few severe storms possible. High chances for
showers and thunderstorms continue, mainly during the afternoon
and evening hours Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
Upper low continues to spin to our north today while it sends a
couple of shortwave troughs rotating around it to the south. The
most impressive of these has kicked up a convective complex over
Ohio and Pennsylvania that has evolved to form a bit of a
frontal system as well... shoving some very humid air back into
the northeastern United States. It looks like the bulk of the
rain with this will slide to our south across southern New
England today, but southern parts of New Hampshire may get in on
a little bit of this. As it moves east it will have less
instability to work with and be driven more by the moist
advection processes. Most models do not produce much
precipitation across this area even if they do bring some rain
north of the Massachusetts line. Unfortunately it looks like the
drought relief will be primarily directed to our south.
Meanwhile further to the north, closer to the upper low itself,
a few widely scattered showers or an isolated thunderstorm is
possible, perhaps enabled by differential heating in the
terrain. However, abundant cloud cover may limit destabilization
up here, so widespread activity is not expected.

It should be another relatively warm day with most areas
reaching up to around 80 degrees. It will be a bit cooler in
southwest New Hampshire where clouds and possible rain from the
system to our south prevent much warming. Warmest temperatures
will be in the middle of the CWA where a bit more sun is
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Should see much of the activity quiet down overnight, but with
the upper low in the vicinity we cannot rule out some widely
scattered showers through the night. It will be warmer as low
level moisture will be a bit greater.

For Sunday the upper low begins to shift south with another
trough axis rotating around its southern periphery and through
New England... this time during the heart of the day. This will
increase the likelihood of showers and a few thunderstorms as
well as the colder temperatures aloft move in over top of the
warm and moist low level environment. Cannot rule out some gusty
winds and small hail with any storms that develop as the
freezing level lowers and a decent amount of vertical wind shear
exists south of the upper low.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thunderstorms, a couple possibly severe, will come to an end
Sunday evening. However, scattered shower activity will likely
continue overnight.

Beneficial rainfall appears to be forthcoming for much of the
forecast area Monday through Wednesday as upper level low
pressure aids in inducing showers and thunderstorms, mainly
during the daylight hours each day. Chances for thunderstorms
may be lesser on the coastal plain Monday as secondary low
pressure develops off the coast and allows for a cooler
northeasterly flow at the SFC. The picture doesn't look much
different for Tuesday and Wednesday with highest PoPs during the
afternoon and evening hours each day.

Over the course of the Monday-Wednesday period, several
locations will likely see 1-2 inches of beneficial rainfall.
Most deterministic guidance and ensemble information show the
most likely location for the heaviest amounts will be in the
mountains. However, since this is a mostly convective situation,
some areas will likely receive much less. The hope is that the
initial storms each day eat up the initial instability and then
end up spreading out into more of a widespread stratiform look
with occasional rumbles by late in the day during the Mon-Wed
period. There is also a low probability of isolated flash
flooding each afternoon as storms will be slow-moving.

Thereafter, the upper level low loses its grip on the forecast
area but models diverge on how the pattern sets up thereafter.
There is a loose consensus that a backdoor front will keep the
heat away come Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Mostly VFR conditions expected today, but an area
of rain and possible embedded thunderstorms is expected to move
to the south over southern New England. Southern New Hampshire
could be affected by this during the afternoon with MVFR
conditions and thunder possible. Another round of more
widespread showers and a few thunderstorms is possible on
Sunday area wide.

Long Term...Thunderstorms are expected to move offshore during
the evening hours Sunday with mainly vfr conditions overnight.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop each day Mon-Wed
with associated lower conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Light winds and seas expected.

Long Term...Onshore flow developing towards the middle of the
week may build seas outside the bays to 5 ft.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Kimble
SHORT TERM...Ekster
LONG TERM...Ekster

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gray ME
357 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2020

MEZ007-012-018-019-023-024-033-NHZ001>015-272000-
Northern Oxford-Southern Oxford-Interior York-
Central Interior Cumberland-Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-
Interior Cumberland Highlands-Northern Coos-Southern Coos-
Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-
Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap-Strafford-Cheshire-Eastern Hillsborough-
Interior Rockingham-Coastal Rockingham-
Western And Central Hillsborough-
357 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, southwest Maine,
western Maine, New Hampshire, central New Hampshire, northern New
Hampshire and southern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

If rainfall tracks farther north on Saturday enough heat and
humidity may move into far southern New Hampshire that there is a
small chance for a isolated stronger thunderstorms.

The better chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms will
be on Sunday afternoon. Another front will swing through the region
but more sunshine early in the day will allow for more afternoon
instability. Thunderstorms are likely to form in the afternoon and
some of these may be strong to severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MEZ008-009-013-014-020>022-025>028-272000-
Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Franklin-
Southern Somerset-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-Sagadahoc-
Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-
357 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Maine,
southwest Maine, west central Maine and western Maine.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ150>154-272000-
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Penobscot Bay-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out 25 NM-
Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
357 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.