Wind Advisory 7, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

890 
WWUS72 KGSP 021918
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
218 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2020

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-030500-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-200203T0500Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
218 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...West to northwest winds at 15 to 25 mph, with occasional
  gusts of 40 to 50 mph expected, especially along the higher 
  ridges. 

* WHERE...The northern North Carolina mountain counties, including
  Avery, Yancey, Mitchell, Caldwell Mountains, Burke Mountains, and
  McDowell Mountains.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

HG

657 
WWUS72 KGSP 022346
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
646 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2020

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-030500-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-200203T0500Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
646 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...West to northwest winds at 15 to 25 mph, with 
  occasional gusts of 40 to 50 mph expected, especially along 
  the higher ridges.

* WHERE...The northern North Carolina mountain counties, 
  including Avery, Yancey, Mitchell, Caldwell Mountains, Burke 
  Mountains, and McDowell Mountains.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
635 AM EST Sun Feb 2 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level ridging will build over our region into early next week
with mostly dry conditions and warmer temperatures. A vigorous cold
front will approach from the west in mid week and cross our area by
Friday. Expect this system to bring breezy conditions and widespread
rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 627 am: Satellite imagery confirms that moisture has exited
the mtns for the most part, with perhaps some lingering shallow
moisture banked up against the TN border of the nrn mtns. Wouldn't
rule out some ongoing rime ice in that region, but if it hasn't
already, it should end in the next hour or two. As for winds,
after an initial surge, they have diminished somewhat across the
ridgetops, but winds should pick up again this afternoon.

The upper pattern will remain progressive over the next 24 hours,
so the deep NW flow that we start with this morning will gradually
back around to westerly an an upstream ridge approaches from
the west. If there is a forecast problem today, it would be the
wind. At this point, the pressure gradient across the mtns and
the winds aloft don't appear to be strong enough to suggest winds
reaching up toward Advisory criteria. The core of the best winds
should miss us across Virginia. So, high pressure moving over
the Gulf of Mexico will keep it bright and sunny today, but with
frequent wind gusts. Downslope flow east of the mtns will allow
high temps to rebound another category or two this afternoon,
with most places outside of the higher terrain making it into the
60s. Above normal temps will continue into tonight as well as the
high center reaches the FL peninsula.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 am Sunday: The short term will be a transitional period
from several days of fair weather to a stretch of several active,
warm and wet days. Ridging aloft will peak Monday with 576 dm
heights support well above normal highs near 70 east of the
mountains despite increasing high clouds throughout the day.

A series of disturbances will nudge a strong 590 dm ridge near Cuba
eastward with each successive disturbance bringing deeper lift and
moisture to the region. Initial energy will mainly lower and thicken
cloud cover across the region Monday night into Tuesday, except
across the mountains (especially southwest mountains) where shower
activity will be on the increase. The first wave of widespread
shower activity (though still favoring the mountains) looks to be
late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Despite the increasing clouds and
rain at times highs will continue to be well above normal into the
60s for most on Tuesday. Rainfall amounts are expected to generally
be under a quarter of an inch through this period, although isolated
upslope areas across the southwest mountains may upwards of an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 345 AM EST Saturday: The peak of active warm and wet weather
continues to fall within the Wednesday to Thursday time frame of
next week. A subtropical jet infused with tropical moisture from the
Central Pacific Ocean is still poised to merge with a polar get
crossing the central part of the nation during this time frame. The
net result will be a prolonged period of moist southwest flow atop
the region in the form of an atmospheric river. This may be an
unusually wet system for this time of year. In fact, both moisture
(precipitable waters) and moisture transport are near climatological
maxes for this time of year.

Rain will become likely across the area (especially the mountains)
Wednesday becoming widespread that night into Thursday as a rapidly
developing surface cyclone across the Deep South rides north just
west of the Appalachians (faster and further east ops GFS track
largely discounted as other guidance and energetic/high amplitude
pattern support slower/further west progression). Deep moisture,
isentropic lift aided by orographic lift across the mountains will
likely support periods of heavy sometime Wednesday into Wednesday
night. Low end instability may also support enhanced lift and
isolated thunderstorms for western portions of the forecast area
during this time frame. By Thursday a mature cyclone entering New
England will help to drive a well forced front through the region.
Model guidance continues to support the potential for stronger
thunderstorms, focused east of the mountains, during this time frame
which falls inline with SPC's outlook. However, the availability of
low end instability and timing of the system place some question
into how widespread stronger storms may be across the Southeast.
Rainfall totals may be fairly impressive with several inches
possible across much of the region before rain tapers off Friday.
With wet conditions ahead of this period of heaviest rain, excessive
rain and flooding concerns continue, especially for the southwest
mountains to adjacent foothills.

Fairly impressive cold air advection behind the cold front knock
temperatures from well above normal for much of the week to near
normal by Saturday under mostly sunny skies. Deep northwest flow
behind the system may also support northwest flow snow (focused near
the Tennessee border) sometime Thursday night and possibly lingering
into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR expected at all TAF sites through the
period. A light WNW wind early this morning should shift to WSW east
of the mtns by mid-morning as a lee trof develops. Deeper mixing
from that point onward suggests frequent wind gusts through the
late afternoon when the boundary layer starts to decouple. When
that happens, the direction will probably come back to WNW. Sky
should be essentially clear.

Outlook: VFR conditions should continue through Monday and Monday
night, but restrictions should develop Tuesday as moisture returns
ahead of the next front approaching slowly from the west. A period
of widespread flight restrictions is possible Wednesday and Thursday
as the front slowly moves over the area.

Confidence Table...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...65
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
635 AM EST Sun Feb 2 2020

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-031145-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
635 AM EST Sun Feb 2 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A vigorous upper-level disturbance and associated cold front will
approach and cross the region during the mid to late week period.
Heavy rainfall with this system will start to ramp up on Wednesday,
with the highest flooding potential more likely by Thursday.
Thunderstorms developing along and ahead of the cold front could
pose a severe weather threat as well. Timing of thunderstorms
remains uncertain, but Wednesday night and Thursday may see the
greatest threat of strong to severe thunderstorms across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

RM/HG