Wind Advisory 6, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

811 
WWUS72 KGSP 240304
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1004 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

NCZ033-048>052-058-059-241115-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.200124T0500Z-200124T2100Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
Northern Jackson-
Including the cities of Banner Elk, Newland, Luck, Waynesville, 
and Tuckasegee
1004 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...The high elevations of Avery, Madison, Yancey, 
  Mitchell, Swain, Haywood, Graham and Northern Jackson Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 4 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

LEC

920 
WWUS72 KGSP 240907
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
407 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

NCZ033-048>052-058-059-242100-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-200124T2100Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
Northern Jackson-
Including the cities of Banner Elk, Newland, Luck, Waynesville, 
and Tuckasegee
407 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 45 to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Avery, Haywood, Mitchell, Swain, Yancey, Madison, 
  Graham and Northern Jackson Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
8

446 
WWUS72 KGSP 241935
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
235 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

NCZ033-048>052-058-059-242045-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-200124T2100Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
Northern Jackson-
235 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Advisory level winds are no longer expected.

$$

RM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1252 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Slowly moderating Canadian high pressure will remain over the area
today. A cold front will then cross the area Friday night bringing
mostly rain. Seasonal high pressure slowly builds through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1245 pm: A thickening high-based broken to overcast sky will
continue across the area through the day in response to height falls
with an approaching upper low swinging into the Midwest. An occluded
low pressure system associated with the upper low will slowly
increase deep-layer southerly to southwesterly flow atop the
forecast area (FA) throughout the day. The latest regional radar
depicts widespread showers within increasing isentropic upglide
regime across eastern AL/western GA/east TN, generally lifting north
to the west of the forecast area, although a few high elevation
areas of southwest NC may be seeing some very light precip. Forecast
soundings show only gradual moistening from the top down, with
limited low-level moisture for any precip thru the daylight hours
today, while radar trends suggest precip will likely hold off until
at least later this afternoon for far southwest NC. Thus, pops
increase to chance across the Smokies and vicinity by evening. But
overall, the day should be dry with temps held just below normal by
the increasing cloud cover and a lingering cool sfc ridge extending
from high pressure to our NE.

Precip should rapidly expand in coverage from west to east across
the forecast area this evening with categorical PoPs nearly
everywhere by daybreak Friday. There is still some concern that
the initially dry boundary layer may wet-bulb temps down below
freezing across portions of the NC mountains as precip increases
in intensity. However, confidence on any widespread areas getting
locked in with several hours of freezing rain is still low. The
low-level jet (LLJ) associated with an approaching cold front
will be SELY with a really good upslope component along the
Escarpment tonight. This will enhance rainfall totals, especially
in the southern mountains of NC (which may get 1-2" of QPF by 12z
Friday). With all that said, even going with the 25% percentile
on min temps tonight only results in pockets of 30-32 deg temps,
which start warming before daybreak Friday. The strong WAA looks
to overwhelm any sub-freezing temps within an in-situ wedge. So
will hold off on any winter weather advisory for ice accums. But
depending on trends, the day shift may need to issue one for
portions of NC near the escarpment. For now, will advertise a brief
mention of freezing rain and light ice accums in the grids in the
usual cold spots of the Upper French Broad Valley and the eastern
Escarpment of NC. But overall, it will be a cold rain tonight with
lows in the mid to upper 30s. One other concern with the SELY LLJ
will be gusty winds on the highest peaks. At this point, the LLJ
is only 40-50 kt, and with strong WAA, we usually don't see gusts
below about 5000 ft in these setups. So no wind advisory will be
issued for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 325 AM Thursday: Precip will be ongoing across the CWFA at the
start of the period. Temps should have warmed enough that precip
should be all rain by this time. That said, can't rule out a
lingering wintry mix for a couple of hours after daybreak across the
higher elevations of the northern mountains. Since the wedge is
quite weak, the guidance has now all come in with some instability,
generally along and south of the I-85 corridor, as triple point low
forms along the front as it moves east across the area. Despite the
strong shear and helicity associated with this, the instability
looks to be weak enough for just some rumbles of thunder and little
to no chance of severe storms. The dry slot behind the front quickly
works into the area from late afternoon into early evening bringing
an end to the precip outside of the mountains. With the strong
forcing and PW values one standard deviation above normal, QPF is
expected to range from 1 to 2 inches, with 3 inch amounts along and
near the southern escarpment upslope areas. Given that much of this
will fall during a 12-18 hour period, isolated flooding will be
possible. Windy to breezy conditions are expected.

A dry and breezy to windy forecast continues Saturday through Sunday
for all but the NW flow precip locations along and near the TN
border. While it looks to be a relatively prolonged period of NW
flow snow, the guidance doesn't agree on if the snowfall amounts
will be significant. The wind speeds and directions and the CAA are
good but not great. However, there area multiple short waves
dropping through the flow across the area and weak low level
instability which are favorable. Keep low PoP across the usual areas
through the period and will have to keep an eye on the situation for
any potentially significant snowfall.

Temps Friday will be near to even below normal under the heart of
the eroding wedge with above normal amounts east and south. Highs
Saturday and Sunday will be below normal over the mountains and near
normal elsewhere. Lows will bounce around near or a little below
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thursday: Guidance now agrees in a generally dry
forecast in association with a clipper-like wave Monday as it is
south of the area near the Gulf Coast. Dry high pressure builds in
on Tuesday then precip chances return Wednesday as another frontal
system approaches from the west. Highs and lows rise up to 5 degrees
above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Mid and high level clouds will continue
streaming over the area this afternoon in advance of an approaching
storm system. Increasing low level moisture and lift is expected to
result in quickly lowering cigs this evening, with MVFR conditions
expected within an hour or so either side of midnight. Precip should
develop around or shortly after that time, with IFR/LIFR cigs and no
better than MVFR visby developing at most TAF sites by daybreak. Low
cigs/rain/reduced visby should then persist through at least Fri
morning. Winds are generally expected to remain NE at 5-10 kts
through the period, with perhaps some low-end gusts developing
across the Piedmont Fri morning. A developing strong S/SE low level
jet above this area of NE winds will result in LLWS at all sites,
primarily during the daylight hours Friday.

Outlook: Low cigs, restricted vsby and precip will continue into
Friday afternoon, with rapid improvement expected with the passage
of a cold front into the evening hours. The front should exit to the
east of the area Friday night, clearing out the restrictions (except
possibly lingering into Saturday at KAVL within NWLY flow). After
that, dry conditions will persist through the weekend and early next
week.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  82%     High  99%
KGSP       High 100%     High  92%     High  86%     High  95%
KAVL       High 100%     High  96%     High  91%     High  96%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     Med   79%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High  94%     High  83%     High  95%
KAND       High 100%     High  89%     Med   75%     High  91%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JDL
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
425 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>507-509-240930-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-
425 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Moisture will increase ahead of a cold front tonight. Temperatures
may be just cold enough when the precipitation begins after midnight
for a wintry mix to develop in some areas. The precipitation should
change over to all rain fairly quickly around daybreak. A very light
ice accumulation across the higher elevations is possible in a few
spots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heavy rainfall is possible Friday creating the potential for isolated
flooding. Wind speeds will increase across the higher elevations
Friday and continue through Saturday. Wind gusts to 50 mph will be
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-508-510-
SCZ001>014-019-240930-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
425 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heavy rainfall is possible Friday creating the potential for isolated
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.