Wind Advisory 5, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

950 
WWUS72 KGSP 191929
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
229 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

NCZ033-048>050-053-192300-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-200119T2300Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-
Including the cities of Banner Elk, Newland, and Luck
229 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Avery, Madison, Yancey, Mitchell and Buncombe Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

326 
WWUS72 KGSP 192257
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
557 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

NCZ033-048>050-053-200000-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-200119T2300Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-
Including the cities of Banner Elk, Newland, and Luck
557 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM EST THIS EVENING ABOVE
3500 FEET...

Winds have fallen below advisory levels and should continue to
weaken through tonight.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
320 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will start to build into the area today, and
dominate our weather for most of the week. This high will bring dry
weather and below normal temperatures to the region. Temperatures
gradually return to near normal by Friday, as the next cold front
approaches from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM: Rain has moved out of the area but clouds are taking
longer as the cold front only slowly crosses the area. Expect the
cold front to move out near daybreak or shortly thereafter. Drier
air will filter in along with gusty northwest winds. Winds are
already becoming gusty across the higher elevations. Winds should
become high enough across the higher elevations for a wind advisory
above 3500 feet across the northern mountains and Madison and
Buncombe counties. The wind speeds really drop off farther
southwest, so while windy, don't expect advisory level gusts across
the rest of the mountains, except above 5000 feet. May even see some
warning level gusts above 5000 feet in the advisory area. Outside of
the mountains, expect breezy to windy conditions with clearing
skies. In true wedge scouring fashion, highs today will be warmer
than yesterday outside of the mountains and colder across the
mountains. Readings will be around normal outside of the mountains
and 5 to 10 degrees colder across the mountains.

Gusty winds will continue into the evening with good gap wind
signature downwind of the Blue Ridge escarpment. Right now, it looks
like gusts should be below advisory level. Clouds will linger in the
northwest flow upslope areas along the TN border; however, the
moisture looks to be too shallow for more than clouds. That said,
can't rule out some flurries in those areas. Clear skies expected
elsewhere. Lows will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal. There will be
some cold wind chill values across the mountains; however, all but
the highest elevations should remain above advisory level. Of
course, if temps are a little cooler or winds a little higher, then
a wind chill advisory would be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EST Sunday: The main story for the short term
(Monday thru Tuesday night) will be the below normal temps. A
deep upper trough will be reinforced over the Eastern states by
a vigorous shortwave trough that dives thru the area from the NW
early Tuesday. The feature will have little moisture to work with,
and any lower clouds and precip looks very isolated and stay to our
west and south. A brief period of increased mid and high clouds will
be all that is expected with the trough. Northerly winds increase
slightly behind the wave Tuesday in the high elevations, but not
expecting anything close to advisory criteria. Temps will be about
5-10 deg below normal thru the period, with Tuesday morning's lows
likely the coldest for most places this week.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 AM EST Sunday: The medium range starts out 12z Wednesday
with a transitory upper ridge crossing the eastern CONUS. Meanwhile,
a western trough will deepen as it crosses the Rockies and
enters the Plains Thursday. The 00z GFS and 00z ECMWF are still
in disagreement on how this trough will evolve as it crosses the
MS Valley and into the East. The EC holds onto a somewhat split
flow, but eventually merges the southern stream trough into a
large closed upper low over the Midwest on Friday. Both solutions
result in an occluded low pressure system over the Ohio Valley or
southern Great Lakes. However, the EC has a faster timing of the
associated cold front crossing the Southeast, bringing precip to
the FA Friday into Friday night. The GFS closes off the upper low
earlier and further west than the EC, so it is a bit slower with
the overall timing. By the time the upper low gets to the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley, it opens up into a large positively tilted
trough. The associated cold front is about 24 hours slower than
the EC's front. The WPC preference (and the NBM PoP timing) seems
to be more in line with the faster EC solution. In either case,
thicknesses increase enough to pretty much preclude any wintry
precip type concerns. The Canadian model is even faster than the
EC, and does suggest a very brief period of some wintry mix in the
mountains at onset before daybreak Friday. For now, going with
some slight chc PoPs creeping in from the west Thursday night,
with patchy wintry mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A mixed bag of flight category remains across
the region as a cold front slowly crosses the area. Precip will move
out by 09Z with some improvement in cigs and vsby. All restrictions
should scatter out and clear by daybreak. Wind will generally be SW
through daybreak with NW wind and developing gusts at KAVL. W to NW
winds become gusty during the morning and remain there into the
evening. KAVL will see stronger NNW wind and gusts. MVFR mountain
clouds return during the day and remain overnight. Uncertain if a
cig develops at KAVL. Otherwise, clear skies expected.

Outlook: VFR at least through the middle of the week under cold
dry high pressure.

Confidence Table...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       Low   45%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       Low   47%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  84%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       Med   75%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       Low   54%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       Low   58%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
458 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-192200-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
458 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-192200-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
458 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Freezing temperatures above 3500 feet will combine with wet roadways
overnight and likely create areas of black ice through daybreak
Sunday. Drivers should use caution. Also, winds will become quite
strong and gusty above 3500 feet with gusts around 35 mph likely.
With saturated soils...these winds could topple isolated weak and
dead trees.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Krentz/RM