Wind Advisory 4, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

563 
WWUS72 KGSP 160319
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1019 PM EST Wed Jan 15 2020

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-161100-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.200116T1200Z-200117T0500Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
1019 PM EST Wed Jan 15 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph 
  expected, especially along the higher ridge tops.

* WHERE...The northern mountains of western North Carolina, 
  including Avery, Yancey, and Mitchell Counties, as well as 
  mountain portions of Caldwell, Burke, and McDowell Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Thursday to midnight EST Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

HG/RM

755 
WWUS72 KGSP 160913
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
413 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2020

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-161700-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.200116T1200Z-200117T0500Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
413 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...The northern mountains of North Carolina, including 
  Avery, Yancey, and Mitchell Counties, as well as mountain 
  portions of Caldwell, Burke, and McDowell Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Thursday to midnight EST Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
Lane

617 
WWUS72 KGSP 161440
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
940 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2020

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-162245-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-200117T0500Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
940 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...The northern mountains of North Carolina, including 
  Avery, Yancey, and Mitchell Counties, as well as mountain 
  portions of Caldwell, Burke, and McDowell Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Thursday to midnight EST Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

SGL

712 
WWUS72 KGSP 161958
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
258 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-170400-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-200117T0500Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
258 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...The northern mountains of North Carolina, including 
  Avery, Yancey, and Mitchell Counties, as well as mountain 
  portions of Caldwell, Burke, and McDowell Counties.

* WHEN...Through midnight EST Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

SGL

846 
WWUS72 KGSP 162347
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
647 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-170500-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-200117T0500Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
647 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...The northern mountains of North Carolina, including 
  Avery, Yancey, and Mitchell Counties, as well as mountain 
  portions of Caldwell, Burke, and McDowell Counties.

* WHEN...Through midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

RMM/SGL

095 
WWUS72 KGSP 170502
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1202 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-170615-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-200117T0500Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
and Poplar
1202 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Gusty winds will continue across the mountains overnight. However, 
they should remain below 47 mph for all but the highest
elevations. Winds will slowly taper off through the night.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
122 PM EST Wed Jan 15 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A wet and unsettled pattern will continue today and tonight as
a cold front approaches the area from the west and moves through
early Thursday. In the front's wake, cooler and drier high pressure
will spread back over the area and linger through Friday. Another
wet system arrives on Saturday with much cooler high pressure
behind it for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1255 pm EST: Brisk westerlies will push a cold front to the
southern Appalachians from the west tonight, with the boundary
settling just southeast of the forecast area around daybreak
Thursday. Ahead of the approaching front, west-southwest low-level
flow will create the best upslope forcing into the southwest NC
mountains. The latest LAPS surface-based CAPE analysis shows little
to no instability across the region at present, but ongoing breaks
in the clouds and continued warm/moist advection into the southern
mountains should lead to a modest increase in instability through
the late afternoon hours. However, still expect nothing greater than
a few hundred J/kg of sbCAPE in the southwest mountains as showers
arrive. Despite the limited instability, any convection that does
survive to the base of the southern Appalachians will bear watching
through this evening as sfc to 3 km bulk shear values exceed 40 kt,
creating a modest wind threat. Will feature the highest PoPs in
southwest mountains and along the TN border tonight, with much lower
chance PoPs east of the Blue Ridge, except a touch higher in the far
southern piedmont. Any residual northwest flow showers will end
quickly overnight along the spine of the mountains. QPF will be very
limited in all but the extreme southwest mountains. Even there, the
threat of hydro issues is relatively small. Another very mild night
is expected, with mins running some 20 to 25 degrees above climo.

The front will settle southeast of the area on Thursday and the
northwest flow pressure gradient will quickly tighten up along the
southern Appalachians as dry high pressure builds from the northern
Plains to the Great Lakes. Full sun and downslope flow should offset
cold advection to keep maxes well above climo (with plenty of 60s)
Thursday afternoon. Mountain wind gusts may approach Advisory
criteria, especially long the higher ridge tops, and an HWO mention
could be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM Wednesday: the short-term forecast picks up at 12z on
Thursday with broad upper trofing amplifying downstream of the Great
Lakes as upper ridging amplifies to our west. On Friday, the upper
trof will move off the New England Coast as the upper ridge axis
slides eastward and over our area late Fri/early Sat. As the period
comes to an end at 12z on Sat, another upper trof will be drifting
eastward across the Great Plains. At the surface, the latest guidance
has a cold front moving thru the CWFA as the period begins early
Thursday. The front is still expected to be SE of the forecast area
by the afternoon with strong Canadian high pressure spreading over
the CWFA in its wake. This will bring cooler and drier air to the
region for Friday. By the time the period ends early Sat, the center
of the high will shift eastward and over New England as another robust
cold front approaches the fcst area from the west. The front is not
expected to move thru the area until the early part of the extended
period. Most of the period should be dry with PoPs ramping up from
west to east early Sat as profiles moisten and the front approaches.
Temps start out well above normal on Thurs, and cool to near-normal
for Fri and Sat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Wednesday: the extended fcst picks up at 12z on Saturday
with another upper trof lifting just to our north and eventually off
the New England Coast on Sunday. In its wake, the pattern briefly
flattens over our area on Sunday. On Monday, broad upper trofing over
SE Canada rotates down across the Western Great Lakes and approaches
our area late Monday/early Tuesday. For the remainder of the period,
the trof amplifies as it drifts off the Atlantic Coast. At the sfc,
a strong cold front will be approaching the fcst area from the west
as we start the period, early Sat. The front is still expected to push
thru the CWFA fairly quickly and move offshore by early Sunday with
cold and dry high pressure spreading back over the area in its wake.
As for convective potential, this frontal system appears to have very
little if any instability associated with it. Thus, convection should
not be an issue. The main sticking point for this period is the first
6 hrs or so on Sat. Most of the model profiles have bndy layer temps
right around freezing thru about 15 to 18z over much of Western NC
and along the NC/SC border. Some models generate a decent-looking
warm nose between roughly 3 and 4k ft that could produce some wintry
mix Sat morning into the early afternoon before the main front pushes
thru. Otherwise, the dominate high will linger over the region for
the remainder of the period bringing below normal temperatures for
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Restrictions have broken up across all TAF
sites this afternoon except for pesky IFR to MVFR cigs at KCLT, near
where dense fog took a bit longer to burn off today. Anticipate MVFR
now holding on at KCLT, but also returning to the other sites
through early evening as abundant moisture continues east of the
approaching cold front. Showers will be most numerous over the
western NC mountains, but with VCSH warranted throughout at some
point as the front crosses the mountains this evening and slides
southeast through the piedmont by daybreak. A window of IFR will be
possible in the early morning hours just ahead of fropa. Expect
mainly SW winds early, veering westerly tonight with the front and
turning NW and gusty through Thursday morning. The restrictions will
quickly dissipate with the fropa 10Z to 12Z east.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected through Friday.
Precipitation and associated restrictions may return for Saturday
into Saturday night before cooler and drier air arrives Sunday.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High  89%     Med   69%     Low   58%     High 100%
KGSP       High  82%     High  83%     Low   58%     High  91%
KAVL       High  80%     Med   62%     Med   68%     High  96%
KHKY       High  98%     Med   74%     Med   71%     High 100%
KGMU       High  82%     High  86%     Med   78%     High  98%
KAND       High  92%     High  90%     Med   63%     High  95%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
811 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2020

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ033-049-050-SCZ001>006-010>012-019-161315-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-
Greenwood-
811 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the northern
mountains of western North Carolina and the western Upstate of South
Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ007>009-013-014-161315-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Chester-
811 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2020

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-161315-
Rabun-Habersham-Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
811 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of northeast
Georgia and the central and southern mountains of western North
Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Periods of heavier rain will return over the area today and tonight,
with an additional half inch to one inch of precipitation expected.
With soils already wet and water levels on rivers and streams
elevated, additional flooding will be possible. Additionally, a
moist cold front will approach the forecast area from the west this
evening and could produce some scattered thunderstorms out ahead of
it. A few of these thunderstorms could become strong and an isolated
severe storm cannot be ruled out, with damaging wind gusts possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

HG