Wind Advisory 3, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

832 
WWUS72 KGSP 110300
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1000 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
111200-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0003.200111T1200Z-200112T0600Z/
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-
Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, 
Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Ingalls, Banner Elk,
Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, 
Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, 
Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, 
Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, 
Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, 
Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, 
Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, 
Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, 
Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, Old Fort, 
Chimney Rock State Park, and Saluda
1000 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast Georgia and western North 
  Carolina. Elevations above 3000 feet are more likely to 
  experience stronger wind gusts.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday, with the 
  strongest gusts expected Saturday afternoon and evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

ARK

253 
WWUS72 KGSP 111011
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
511 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
111915-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0003.200111T1200Z-200112T0600Z/
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-
Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, 
Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Ingalls, Banner Elk,
Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, 
Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, 
Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, 
Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, 
Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, 
Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, 
Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, 
Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, 
Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, Old Fort, 
Chimney Rock State Park, and Saluda
511 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast Georgia and western North 
  Carolina. Elevations above 3000 feet are more likely to 
  experience stronger wind gusts.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Sunday, with the
  strongest gusts expected this afternoon and evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

JPT

436 
WWUS72 KGSP 111452
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
952 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
112300-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-200112T0600Z/
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-
Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, 
Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Ingalls, Banner Elk,
Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, 
Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, 
Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, 
Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, 
Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, 
Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, 
Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, 
Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, 
Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, Old Fort, 
Chimney Rock State Park, and Saluda
952 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...The mountains northeast Georgia and western North 
  Carolina. Elevations above 3000 feet are more likely to 
  experience stronger wind gusts.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

902 
WWUS72 KGSP 120046
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
746 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
120600-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-200112T0600Z/
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-
Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, 
Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Ingalls, Banner Elk,
Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, 
Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, 
Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, 
Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, 
Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, 
Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, 
Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, 
Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, 
Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, Old Fort, 
Chimney Rock State Park, and Saluda
746 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...The mountains northeast Georgia and western North 
  Carolina. Elevations above 3000 feet are more likely to 
  experience stronger wind gusts.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
240 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system to our west will bring rainfall and
possibly thunderstorms to the area through Saturday night. After a
brief break on Sunday, unsettled weather returns for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Friday: Radar still showing light returns, though
again most of this is not making it to the surface due to a dry
boundary layer. Surface high pressure is gradually pulling away from
the area as it drifts eastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast, and
though a wedge of high pressure remains in place across our area
(and is keeping winds at many sites NErly), it is retreating slowly
northward and winds are shifting more E-SErly. This is accelerating
moistening at the surface, and as moisture continues to make it into
the area later this afternoon and evening, expect showers (that
actually reach the ground) will gradually spread in, which has been
reflected in the pop trends of the going forecast.

As the surface cold front and upper level low approach the area,
forcing in both low and upper levels will increase through the day
tomorrow, and with better moisture in place, expect shower activity
to be more widespread. Rainfall could be heavier at times in upslope
areas, but overall expect a showery nature to rainfall during the
day, limiting QPF. CAMs suggest the best QPF will be with the
convective line moving towards the area ahead of the approaching
front. Though there are some hints in guidance that the line may
approach the far western zones of the forecast area by the end of
the near term period, think any weather of interest will hold off
til the short term period begins, so after 00Z Sunday. Instability
will be limited during the day on Saturday, so no threat for severe
weather outside of the approaching line of convection is
anticipated during the near term period.

Finally, stronger warm air advection will commence ahead of the
approaching cold front tomorrow morning, with winds increasing and
becoming gusty through the day tomorrow. Most of the area will be
breezy by the afternoon, but expected higher gusts especially in the
higher terrain and mountain zones. Winds and especially gusts in the
going forecast get close to wind advisory criteria in these areas,
so tipped toward a wind advisory running through the end of the near
term period for all NC mountain zones and Rabun and Habersham
counties in NE GA. With soil already wet and more rain expected, a
few trees could fall in these zones, again more in higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM Fri: Deep upper trough will be near the mouth of
the Ohio River at 00z Sunday, with sfc low over the central Ohio
Valley. A line of convection is expected to have already developed
along the cold front and will be entering the westernmost zones
of the CWA around that time. LLJ preceding the front is progged to
be upwards of 60 kt in spots as the convection pushes east. SBCAPE
is likely to be sufficient to sustain some updrafts at least part
of the way across the CWA. A limiting factor for the threat of
severe weather will be a lack of dynamic forcing due to the track
of the shortwave, although a narrow zone of upper divergence will
traverse the area in the RR quad of a jet streak. Significant
updrafts do become sparse in HREF plots as the line crosses the
mtns, as does associated helicity swaths. Nevertheless the threat
is sufficiently great for SPC to have placed most of the CWA in a
Marginal Risk on Day 2. Gusty winds across the mountains and NE
GA will continue until around 06z, which is the expiration time
of our Wind Advisory. The line likely will have fizzled and/or
exited the CWA by daybreak. With the heavy precip being relatively
short-lived, and in light of FFGs, only the most problematic areas
are at risk for hydrologic issues.

Rapid departure of shortwave into eastern Canada, along with
persistent strong offshore high pressure, will stall out the
front across the Southeast later on Sunday. The next shortwave
in the train will be moving into the upper Mississippi Valley
around that time, helping to reinforce southwesterly flow across
the Southeast, and activating the stalled front in the very low
levels. Thus PoPs gradually begin to ramp up again from south to
north Sunday afternoon; this trend continues through Monday.

Warm temps mainly in the upper 60s are expected for Sunday
afternoon across the Piedmont and lower mountain valleys, with
some sunshine. Temps take a slight hit Monday due to cloud cover
but will remain pleasantly warm, in the mid 60s, still a good 15
degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 pm Fri: Details on the medium range remain a bit murky,
though a generally unsettled pattern is expected to continue. The
development of a warm front across the Southeast will continue
Mon night into Tue; just as the Midwest shortwave begins to carry
this feature past the area and bring back westerly flow and CAA,
another shortwave will take a similar track in its wake, essentially
beginning the cycle again. Warm but moist conditions will persist
until that wave pulls a cold front through our area late Wed night
or Thu. Another fairly short period of dry weather will return to
end the official period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Stratus deck still in place over the area,
with cigs anywhere from 5-7k ft and most sites currently VFR. Lower
cigs will spread in later this evening and tonight, with a drop to
MVFR and then IFR likely late tonight and early tomorrow morning.
Radar is showing light returns across parts of the area, but the
lower atmosphere is still too dry in most places to support any
showers reaching the ground. Shower chances increase in the
overnight hours tonight as better moisture arrives, though should
remain generally isolated until near daybreak tomorrow morning when
more widespread activity will commence and continue through the day.
The only other feature of note will be winds, which will stay
generally southerly through the end of the TAF period once they veer
later today, and will increase in speed with gusts expected at all
sites tomorrow.

Outlook: Intermittent flight restrictions will materialize this
evening and become more widespread tomorrow as a cold front
approaches from the west. The front will clear the area by early
Sunday, with brief drying in its wake. Moisture will return again
early next week.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  98%     High  92%     High  94%
KGSP       Med   78%     High  95%     High  87%     Med   79%
KAVL       High  82%     High  91%     Med   78%     High 100%
KHKY       High  93%     Med   79%     High  85%     Med   70%
KGMU       High  82%     High  84%     Med   61%     High  86%
KAND       High  82%     High  86%     Med   68%     High  95%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...17
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...17

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
559 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

GAZ010-NCZ051-058-059-062>065-111100-
Rabun-Swain-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-Henderson-
559 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and western
North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A strong low pressure system will bring periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall across the southern NC mountains and northeast Georgia
mountains on Saturday. Rainfall could increase flooding concerns
along larger rivers, streams, and low-lying areas, especially later
Saturday into Saturday night.

In addition, a line of heavy rain showers with embedded
thunderstorms is expected to cross the area Saturday night along a
cold front. Isolated damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado will
be possible during that time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>050-052-053-056-057-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-111100-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
559 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A line of heavy rain showers with embedded thunderstorms is expected
to cross the area Saturday night along a cold front. Isolated
damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible during
that time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Lane