Alert archive / North Carolina / Wind Advisories in 2020

Wind Advisory 20, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

November 15, 202012 counties in North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this wind advisory at Nov 15, 2020, 1:55 AM EST for 12 counties in North Carolina. It took effect at Nov 15, 2020, 3:00 AM EST. It was in force for 31 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 15, 2020, 1:55 AM EST (06:55 UTC)
In effect from
Nov 15, 2020, 3:00 AM EST
Expired
Nov 16, 2020, 10:07 AM EST
In force
31 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Counties Avery County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Swain County, NC, Yancey County, NC

The radar

The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 248 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2020-11-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2020-11-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 106 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1593 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
78 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
106 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
109 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

194 
WWUS72 KGSP 150655
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
155 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-151700-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.201115T1100Z-201116T1700Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
155 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph
  today, becoming northwest at 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 45 to 55
  mph tonight. 

* WHERE...Avery, Yancey, and Mitchell Counties, as well as
  mountain portions of Caldwell, Burke, and McDowell Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 AM this morning to noon EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs and scattered trees could be blown down. A few power 
  outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062-063-151700-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.201115T0800Z-201115T2000Z/
Madison-Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-
Including the cities of Luck, Waynesville, Tuckasegee, 
Rainbow Springs, Kyle, and Highlands
155 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
3500 FEET...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 45 to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Elevations above 3500 feet in Madison, Swain, Haywood,
  Graham, Jackson, and Macon Counties.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs and scattered trees could be blown down. A few power 
  outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

HG
7 follow-up statements
460 
WWUS72 KGSP 151121
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
621 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

GAZ029-NCZ070-071-082-SCZ009-011>014-019-151500-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FG.Y.0018.201115T1121Z-201115T1500Z/
Elbert-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Union NC-York-Abbeville-Laurens-
Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Including the cities of Elberton, Fortsonia, Middleton, 
Ruckersville, Gastonia, Charlotte, Monroe, Trinity, Indian Trail,
Weddington, Catawba, Rock Hill, Abbeville, Calhoun Falls, 
Laurens, Clinton, Union, Monarch Mills, Chester, Cornwell, 
Great Falls, Ware Shoals, and Ninety Six
621 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.

* WHERE...In South Carolina, York, Abbeville, Laurens, Union SC, 
  Chester and Greenwood Counties. In Georgia, Elbert County. In 
  North Carolina, Gaston, Mecklenburg and Union NC Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to low visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of
distance ahead of you.

&&

$$

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-151930-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-201116T1700Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
621 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph 
  today, becoming northwest at 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 45 to 
  55 mph tonight.

* WHERE...Avery, Yancey, and Mitchell Counties, as well as 
  mountain portions of Caldwell, Burke, and McDowell Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 AM this morning to noon EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs and scattered trees could be blown down. A few 
  power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062-063-151930-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-201115T2000Z/
Madison-Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-
Including the cities of Luck, Waynesville, Tuckasegee, 
Rainbow Springs, Kyle, and Highlands
621 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 45 to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Elevations above 3500 feet in Madison, Swain, Haywood, 
  Graham, Jackson, and Macon Counties.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs and scattered trees could be blown down. A few 
  power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

HG
044 
WWUS72 KGSP 151153
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
653 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

GAZ028-SCZ004>008-010-151500-
/O.EXA.KGSP.FG.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-201115T1500Z/
Hart-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-
Spartanburg-Cherokee-Anderson-
Including the cities of Hartwell, Nuberg, Reed Creek, Seneca, 
Oakway, Easley, Dacusville, Clemson, Greenville, Taylors, Greer, 
Mauldin, Fork Shoals, Simpsonville, Berea, Spartanburg, Gaffney, 
and Anderson
653 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.

* WHERE...In South Carolina, Greater Oconee, Greater Pickens, 
  Greater Greenville, Spartanburg, Cherokee and Anderson 
  Counties. In Georgia, Hart County.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to low visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of
distance ahead of you.

&&

$$

GAZ029-NCZ070-071-082-SCZ009-011>014-019-151500-
/O.CON.KGSP.FG.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-201115T1500Z/
Elbert-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Union NC-York-Abbeville-Laurens-
Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Including the cities of Elberton, Fortsonia, Middleton, 
Ruckersville, Gastonia, Charlotte, Monroe, Trinity, Indian Trail,
Weddington, Catawba, Rock Hill, Abbeville, Calhoun Falls, 
Laurens, Clinton, Union, Monarch Mills, Chester, Cornwell, 
Great Falls, Ware Shoals, and Ninety Six
653 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.

* WHERE...In South Carolina, York, Abbeville, Laurens, Union SC, 
  Chester and Greenwood Counties. In Georgia, Elbert County. In 
  North Carolina, Gaston, Mecklenburg and Union NC Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to low visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of
distance ahead of you.

&&

$$

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-152000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-201116T1700Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
653 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph 
  today, becoming northwest at 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 45 to 
  55 mph tonight.

* WHERE...Avery, Yancey, and Mitchell Counties, as well as 
  mountain portions of Caldwell, Burke, and McDowell Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 AM this morning to noon EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs and scattered trees could be blown down. A few 
  power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062-063-152000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-201115T2000Z/
Madison-Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-
Including the cities of Luck, Waynesville, Tuckasegee, 
Rainbow Springs, Kyle, and Highlands
653 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 45 to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Elevations above 3500 feet in Madison, Swain, Haywood, 
  Graham, Jackson, and Macon Counties.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs and scattered trees could be blown down. A few 
  power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

HG
722 
WWUS72 KGSP 151500
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1000 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

GAZ028-029-NCZ070-071-082-SCZ004>014-019-151600-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FG.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-201115T1500Z/
Hart-Elbert-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Union NC-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Including the cities of Hartwell, Nuberg, Reed Creek, Elberton, 
Fortsonia, Middleton, Ruckersville, Gastonia, Charlotte, Monroe, 
Trinity, Indian Trail, Weddington, Seneca, Oakway, Easley, 
Dacusville, Clemson, Greenville, Taylors, Greer, Mauldin, 
Fork Shoals, Simpsonville, Berea, Spartanburg, Gaffney, Catawba, 
Rock Hill, Anderson, Abbeville, Calhoun Falls, Laurens, Clinton, 
Union, Monarch Mills, Chester, Cornwell, Great Falls, 
Ware Shoals, and Ninety Six
1000 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

Patchy dense fog will linger across portions of upstate South
Carolina for another hour or so, but widespread dense fog is no
longer expected.  

$$

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-152300-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-201116T1700Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
1000 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Yancey, Mitchell, Caldwell Mountains, Burke Mountains, 
  McDowell Mountains and Avery Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062-063-152000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-201115T2000Z/
Madison-Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-
Including the cities of Luck, Waynesville, Tuckasegee, 
Rainbow Springs, Kyle, and Highlands
1000 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Haywood, Swain, Madison, Graham, Northern Jackson, 
  Southern Jackson and Macon Counties.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
Lane
500 
WWUS72 KGSP 151952
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
252 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062-063-152100-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-201115T2000Z/
Madison-Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-
Including the cities of Luck, Waynesville, Tuckasegee, 
Rainbow Springs, Kyle, and Highlands
252 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
3500 FEET...

Gusty northwest winds are expected across the North Carolina 
mountains through tonight, especially across the higher
elevations. Although gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected, these are
below wind advisory levels. 

$$

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-160400-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-201116T1700Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
252 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Caldwell Mountains, Burke Mountains, McDowell 
  Mountains, Avery, Yancey and Mitchell Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
Lane
326 
WWUS72 KGSP 160321
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1021 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-161130-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-201116T1700Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
1021 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Caldwell Mountains, Burke Mountains, McDowell 
  Mountains, Avery, Yancey and Mitchell Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
393 
WWUS72 KGSP 160900
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
400 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-161700-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-201116T1700Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
400 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Caldwell Mountains, Burke Mountains, McDowell 
  Mountains, Avery, Yancey and Mitchell Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon EST.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Krentz
786 
WWUS72 KGSP 161507
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1007 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-161615-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-201116T1700Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
1007 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds will continue to steadily diminish across the North Carolina
mountains through the afternoon.

$$

Lane

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Nov 15, 12:57 AM EST, 58 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 15, 12:57 AM EST, 58 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1257 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front with limited moisture will cross our region from the
west today. A little cooler and continued dry air will settle across
the region Monday and persist through the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1245 am EST: Cloudiness continues to fan out and lower across
the region early this morning in developing low-level isentropic
lift. The radar remains quiet but light precipitation may be on the
verge of breaking out overhead as ceilings lower, and PoPs for light
rain will be adjusted upward slightly this morning in advance of the
approaching cold front, especially over the NC foothills.

Meanwhile, an amplified upper trough axis emerging from the Plains
will lift toward the Great Lakes through the day and drive a surface
cold front east into the southern Appalachians. A southerly low-
level jet of 40+ kt ahead of the boundary will impinge on the higher
terrain this morning, but any Advisory level gusts still appear to
be confined above about 4500 ft MSL. The convection-allowing models
have pre-frontal showers reaching the mountains through the late
morning hours. Then, showers become spottier along the frontal zone
as it passes east of the mountains this afternoon and exits east of
the area early this evening. Precipitation may be especially spotty
in southern sections, but better upper dynamics will aid coverage a
bit across western NC and out along the I-40 corridor through late
day. Surface-based instability looks too meager for a thunder
mention anywhere today, although 850 to 500 mb lapse rates have an
uptick right along the frontal zone so thunder cannot be completely
ruled out in any better showers.

A few northwest flow showers along the spine of the southern
Appalachians will be briefly possible early this evening before the
moisture dries, otherwise strong post fropa drying will occur
through a deep layer in the west to northwest flow. Windier
conditions are likely along the northern Blue Ridge mountains
tonight with cold advection and a 45+ kt 850 mb jet. A Wind Advisory
will be entertained, but it appears marginal for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Saturday... Quiet fall weather is on tap for much of
next week. For early next week, waning cold air advection and upper
support behind a departing shortwave trough should allow gusty but
likely sub-advisory northwest winds to weaken through the day
Monday. A second more potent short wave will push into the region
Tuesday providing a reinforcing shot of cool continental (read: dry)
air to the region. Better cold air advection and upper support with
this shortwave may be enough for advisory level wind gusts across
the high terrain with breezy conditions extending into the Piedmont.
The already dry airmass combined with downsloping flow off of the
mountains may support afternoon relatively humidity values into the
20s in some spots east of the mountains. The dry air and breezy
northwest winds may lead to elevated fire weather conditions each
afternoon. The air mass will change little early next week with
highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s and overnight lows in the 30s to
near 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...As promised the quiet weather will likely
continue into later next week. Longwave troughing will slide
offshore by Thursday making way for zonal flow or flat ridging
overhead. At the surface, a respectable 1030+ mb high will settle
overhead allowing for winds to drop off relative to earlier in the
week with perhaps a return of overnight mountain valley fog or
stratus heading into next weekend. The weakening flow should largely
put an end to fire weather concerns, although the dry airmass may
linger into Thursday or Friday. The air mass should moderate
overhead by late in the work week, allowing temperatures to rebound
back to around if not a bit above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: MVFR cigs continue to develop and lower
around issuance time early this morning, and lower end MVFR with
spotty light rain is expected throughout before daybreak. Locations
along and east of the mountains may see a window of IFR cigs around
daybreak, but confidence is not terribly high on this at present.
Showers with the approaching cold front will begin arriving in the
mountain through the later morning hours, with PROB30 featured at
most sites for mainly the afternoon hours. Some recovery of cigs to
higher end MVFR is likely given the rapidly improving southerly
mixing through the morning hours, although any showers will lower
cigs once again. Will feature gusts above 20 kt throughout during
the peak of the southerly jet passage and mixing today. Cigs scatter
quickly with fropa late day, and northwest flow wind gusts will
increase rapidly at KAVL through the evening hours as cold advection
develops.

Outlook: Cooler and much drier air will filter into the area in the
wake of the cold front, bringing dry and mostly VFR conditions
throughout the upcoming week.

Confidence Table...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       High  84%     High  92%     Med   77%     High  93%
KGSP       High  99%     High  97%     High  90%     High 100%
KAVL       High  90%     Med   75%     High  95%     High 100%
KHKY       High  99%     High  94%     High  89%     High 100%
KGMU       High  96%     High  94%     High  97%     High 100%
KAND       High  94%     High  91%     High  95%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...Munroe
LONG TERM...Munroe
AVIATION...HG
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 14, 4:05 PM EST, 9 hours 50 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
405 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ001>014-019-152115-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union NC-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
405 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-152115-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
405 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Breezy to windy conditions will develop across the North Carolina
mountains tonight. Very windy conditions will be possible along the
higher ridge tops, with gusts above 40 mph at elevations above 4000
feet.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Breezy to windy conditions will continue across the North Carolina
mountains Sunday and Sunday night. Very windy conditions will again
be possible along the higher ridge tops, with gusts above 40 mph at
elevations above 4000 feet.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 15, 6:21 AM ESTDense Fog AdvisoryGSPGaston, Mecklenburg, Union4 hr

Nearby

Wind Advisories in North Carolina, 2020Every wind advisory in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.