Wind Advisory 17, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

992 
WWUS72 KGSP 282100
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

NCZ035>037-057-071-072-501-502-SCZ009-282200-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0017.201029T1000Z-201029T2200Z/
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Rowan-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-York-
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The Wind Advisory has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning. 

$$

GAZ029-NCZ082-SCZ011>014-019-290500-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0017.201029T1000Z-201029T2200Z/
Elbert-Union NC-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Including the cities of Elberton, Fortsonia, Middleton, 
Ruckersville, Monroe, Trinity, Indian Trail, Weddington, 
Abbeville, Calhoun Falls, Laurens, Clinton, Union, Monarch Mills,
Chester, Cornwell, Great Falls, Ware Shoals, and Ninety Six
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected. Occasional gusts to 50 mph are possible, especially 
  during the afternoon across the North Carolina Piedmont.

* WHERE...Portions of upstate South Carolina, northeast Georgia 
  and piedmont and western North Carolina.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. The combination of gusty winds and wet to saturated 
  soils is expected to result in scattered downed trees and 
  power lines, with scattered power outages likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Krentz

601 
WWUS72 KGSP 290237
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1037 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

GAZ029-NCZ082-SCZ011>014-019-291100-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0017.201029T1000Z-201029T2200Z/
Elbert-Union NC-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Including the cities of Elberton, Fortsonia, Middleton, 
Ruckersville, Monroe, Trinity, Indian Trail, Weddington, 
Abbeville, Calhoun Falls, Laurens, Clinton, Union, Monarch Mills,
Chester, Cornwell, Great Falls, Ware Shoals, and Ninety Six
1037 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected. Occasional gusts to 50 mph are possible, especially 
  during the afternoon across the North Carolina Piedmont.

* WHERE...Portions of upstate South Carolina, northeast Georgia 
  and piedmont and western North Carolina.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. The combination of gusty winds and wet to saturated 
  soils is expected to result in scattered downed trees and 
  power lines, with scattered power outages likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Krentz

166 
WWUS72 KGSP 290816
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
416 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

GAZ029-NCZ082-SCZ011>014-019-291900-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0017.201029T1000Z-201029T2200Z/
Elbert-Union NC-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Including the cities of Elberton, Fortsonia, Middleton, 
Ruckersville, Monroe, Trinity, Indian Trail, Weddington, 
Abbeville, Calhoun Falls, Laurens, Clinton, Union, Monarch Mills,
Chester, Cornwell, Great Falls, Ware Shoals, and Ninety Six
416 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph
  expected. Occasional gusts to 50 mph are possible, through the 
  morning hours.

* WHERE...Portions of upstate South Carolina, northeast Georgia 
  and piedmont and western North Carolina.

* WHEN...Through 6 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. The combination of gusty winds and wet to saturated 
  soils is expected to result in scattered downed trees and 
  power lines, with scattered power outages likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

SGL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1127 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will persist through this evening as the warm
front lifts north of the region. Periods of moderate rainfall will
develop overnight Wednesday as Tropical Storm Zeta moves through the
Deep South. Zeta will pass over the region Thursday morning,
resulting in heavy rainfall and potentially damaging winds.
Conditions rapidly improve Thursday evening as Zeta departs with
cool and dry weather persisting through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1120 AM EDT: A Flash Flood Watch for the western portions of
the FA which will go into effect beginning tonight.

Shower activity has continued to lift north across the area with a
bit of a lull expected this afternoon, especially east of the
mountains. We may see an uptick in activity focused across the
escarpment late this afternoon or early evening due to
orographic/isentropic enhancement in this area. In collaboration with
the NHC and neighbors have upped wind/gusts for tonight near the
track of Zeta. Will issue a tropical storm watch shortly for the I-
85 corridor northwest into the mountains, excluding a portion
of the NC Piedmont. Wind gusts between 35 and 45 mph will be
common in the watch area during the Passage of Zeta late
tonight through early Thursday afternoon. At least isolated
downed trees and power are likely especially considering the
saturated soils in place. We also trimmed thunder mention back
to the Savannah River Valley for this afternoon into early
evening, in line with better forcing and marginal instability
across this area.

Otherwise, on and off dreary conditions are expected as a warm front
moves through the area with plenty of moisture continuing to stream
in from the GOM. Expect isolated showers along with a few rumbles of
thunder this afternoon and into tonight. Meanwhile, with high
pressure offshore, all eyes will are on Zeta as it tracks through
the GOM and makes landfall somewhere along the central Gulf coast
later today. Despite cloud cover, with the warm and moist airmass in
place, max temps will remain above normal today.

Late tonight into Thursday, focus turns to the local impacts
expected across the FA as Zeta quickly moves inland ushered by an
upper trough moving through the southern Plains around the time of
landfall. Guidance continues to prog the synoptic pattern steering
the system overhead GA/TN/western Carolinas early Thursday morning.
So let's look at the impacts - flash flooding, isolated weak, brief
tornadoes, and gusty winds.

Expect increasing coverage of showers through the overnight hours
with isolated thunderstorms as well. Could not entirely rule out a
few weak, brief tornadoes early Thursday morning given the increased
available shear and location of the FA in regards to the remnants of
Zeta. Thunderstorm chances ramp up again Thursday afternoon with
increasing instability as noted by SPCs Day 2 marginal risk. Already
saturated soils combined with precip expected today and increasing
rainfall rates as the system nears the area will cause flash
flooding to become a concern for the mountains. Thus, a Flash Flood
Watch has been issued and will go into effect beginning tonight. As
for winds, winds and wind gusts (gusts up to 30 kts) will begin to
increase across the SW portions of the area overnight tonight and
spread across the area into Thursday as the remnants move overhead.
Gusty winds with already saturated soils will increase the potential
for trees to come down.

With the area in the warm sector, max temps will climb well above
normal, in the mid to upper 70s outside of the mountains. Min temps
Thursday morning will remain above normal as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday: The abbreviated short term period will
start Thursday evening as Zeta exits the Mid-Atlantic coast and
the potent mid-level closed low rapidly approaches the region
from the west. The attendant cold front should be entering our
western counties around this time and as it does so, scattered
showers cannot be ruled out along and ahead of the front through
the early overnight hours as the front passes through the region;
however deep-layer moisture and the best instability will have
already departed. Behind the front, a brief period of deep-layer
northwest flow will develop overnight Thursday, inducing light
upslope rain showers along the TN border.  As the upslope forcing
dissipates, these showers should end quickly by Friday morning.

The closed low will open up and be absorbed by a strong shortwave
trough whose axis quickly moves to our east by Friday morning as an
expansive region of high pressure builds into the eastern CONUS.
CAA behind the front will result in high temperatures 4-7 degrees
below normal for Friday despite sunny skies.  High pressure will
progress quickly into the Northeast overnight Friday as another
potent trough digs into the northern Plains.  Light winds and clear
skies will yield optimum radiational cooling conditions Friday
night resulting in low temperatures 3-5 degrees below normal.
Expect areas of frost to develop with lows reaching the mid-30s
in the mountains and upper 30s over much of the North Carolina
Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday: As the parent high pressure slides off
the New England coast during the day on Saturday, a wedge of
high pressure will persist over the region.  Despite sunny skies,
the cool NE flow will maintain the coldest airmass of the season
to date, with highs struggling to reach the upper 50s west of
the mountains, or 8-12 degrees below normal regionwide.  Another
favorable setup for frost appears on tap for Saturday night across
western North Carolina.  Weak southerly flow returns for Sunday
ahead of the next cold front as a strong closed low propagates
across the northern Great Lakes.  Guidance has been off and on
with light rainfall chances along and just ahead of the front,
but models were even more bearish for the 00Z run. Therefore,
we kept Sunday dry.

Expect the front to pass through the region Sunday evening, setting
up a prolonged period of dry high pressure over the eastern CONUS
which should easily carry us into mid-week next week.  The frontal
passage will induce a new round of CAA which may mean our first
freeze of the season for Sunday night across the mountains.
Strong NW flow may prohibit widespread frost over the Piedmont,
but this will have to be monitored as lows should dip into the mid-
to upper 30s.  Monday will be the coldest day of the season so far;
high temperatures will struggle to reach 60 in the Savannah River
Valley and 50 in most of the mountain valleys with 40s across the
higher elevations, or about 10-14 degrees below normal regionwide.
Expect temperatures to slowly moderate into the middle of the work
week, but highs will remain 3-7 degrees below normal and lows
slightly below normal. Better chances for widespread frost may
occur Tuesday and Wednesday mornings with high pressure overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A mixture of VFR/MVFR/IFR prevails at the TAF
sites this morning due to patchy areas of fog and low stratus.
Expect conditions to improve to VFR/MVFR after daybreak with isolated
showers and thunderstorms as a warm front moves through the area.
Though some of the guidance continues to suggest improvement to VFR,
fcst soundings depict a healthy saturated atmospheric profile. Thus,
while improvement to VFR is possible, confidence remains low on how
long it will last at the sites before deteriorating conditions
return. MVFR/IFR returns tonight and will persist through the valid
TAF period as the remnants of Zeta moves over the area with
scattered SHRA/TSRA on Thursday. Rainfall will be heavy at times.
SSE winds will prevail through tonight with increasing sustained
winds and gusts into Thursday. LLWS will be possible Thursday
afternoon.

Outlook: Conditions will improve Friday with VFR and light winds by
the weekend.

Confidence Table...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       Med   68%     High  85%     High  87%     High  95%
KGSP       Med   68%     High  92%     Med   75%     High  86%
KAVL       Med   78%     High  87%     High  90%     High  93%
KHKY       High  89%     Med   76%     High  83%     High  95%
KGMU       Med   61%     High  90%     High  83%     High  91%
KAND       High  87%     High  84%     Med   78%     Med   75%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through Thursday afternoon
     for GAZ010-017.
     Tropical Storm Watch for GAZ010-017-018-026-028.
NC...Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through Thursday afternoon
     for NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>507-509.
     Tropical Storm Watch for NCZ033-048>053-056-058-059-062>065-
     068>070-503>510.
SC...Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through Thursday afternoon
     for SCZ001>003.
     Tropical Storm Watch for SCZ001>008-010.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JMP/Munroe
NEAR TERM...Munroe/SGL
SHORT TERM...JMP
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...SGL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
619 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

GAZ026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-508-510-SCZ004>014-019-
291030-
Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Greater Rutherford-
Eastern Polk-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-
Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-
Chester-Greenwood-
619 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A small chance of flooding rainfall and damaging winds continues
for much of the area into Thursday as the remnants of tropical
cyclone Zeta sweep across the Southeast. There is also a small threat
of isolated tornadoes on Thursday across Piedmont areas as the
remnants of Zeta move through during the day. Monitor the latest
forecast for updates on this system.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>507-509-SCZ001>003-
291030-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-
Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
619 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

There is a small threat of isolated tornadoes on Thursday across
Piedmont areas as the remnants of Zeta move through during the day.
Monitor the latest forecast for updates on this system.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.