Wind Advisory 14, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

848 
WWUS72 KGSP 211703
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
103 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020

NCZ051-058-059-062-063-220115-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0005.200422T0600Z-200422T1400Z/
Swain-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Including the cities of Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, 
Wesser, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, 
Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, 
and Cashiers
103 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 34 will result in frost 
  formation.

* WHERE...Swain, Graham, Jackson, and Macon Counties in 
  southwest North Carolina.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if 
  left uncovered.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps today to protect tender plants from the cold tonight.

&&

$$

NCZ033-049-050-053-501-503-505-220115-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-200422T0200Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Asheville, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
103 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph 
  expected at times.

* WHERE...Avery, Yancey, Mitchell, and Buncombe Counties, as 
  well as mountain portions of Caldwell, Burke, and McDowell 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

JPT

366 
WWUS72 KGSP 220156
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
956 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020

NCZ033-049-050-053-501-503-505-220300-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-200422T0200Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Asheville, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
956 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

Winds continue to diminish, thus allowing for the wind advisory to
expire.

$$

NCZ051-058-059-062-063-221000-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0005.200422T0600Z-200422T1400Z/
Swain-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Including the cities of Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, 
Wesser, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, 
Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, 
and Cashiers
956 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 34 will result in frost 
  formation.

* WHERE...Swain, Graham, Jackson, and Macon Counties in 
  southwest North Carolina.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if 
  left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
132 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
An active spring pattern will continue with a storm system moving
off the Carolina coast today, followed by  another storm system on
Thursday, then another next weekend.  Temperatures will be near
seasonal normals through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 AM EDT Tuesday: A surface lee trough remains in place
across the center of the forecast area early this morning, but with
residual piedmont showers quickly dissipating east of I-77.
Attention on the regional radars turns back to the west with
activity pushing east across the western half of Tennessee early
this morning. The mesoscale models depict the remnants of this
slowly decaying convection arriving in the spine of the southern
Appalachians toward daybreak, and this seems reasonable given weak
mid-level forcing in the WNW flow aloft. Anticipate that very little
of this early activity will survive east of the mountains through
the later morning hours, but cannot rule out some isolated coverage
crossing the I-77 corridor toward noon. Then, additional scattered
secondary convection will likely form along a cold front settling in
from the northwest through the afternoon. This activity may also
struggle to survive east of the mountains mid to late afternoon, but
could get an assist across the northern tier by weak, embedded 500
mb vorticity lobes in the WNW flow aloft and 850 to 500 mb lapse
rates of 6.5+ deg C/km. Surface-based instability will be paltry
given the drying dewpoints with mixing.

Speaking of mixing, the bigger issue through the day will be gusty
westerly winds. With some numerical models suggesting a well mixed
layer extending up to 8000 to 9000 feet during peak afternoon
heating, 40+ kt of flow could become available to mix down at times
during peak momentum transport. Confidence is increasing that a Wind
Advisory may be needed for the central and northern mountains, and
would not at all be surprised at some gusts topping 40 mph east of
the mountains during the warmest part of the day.

Finally, cooler air will spill in through tonight behind the passing
cold front, but breezy to windy post fropa conditions will make for
a very tricky frost/freeze forecast in the NC mountains, where
growing is now active throughout. The southwest mountain valleys
will likely the see greatest areas of frost. A Frost Advisory may be
posted for these areas. If enough wind decoupling occurs overnight,
the central and northern mountains, and locations east along I-40
could get in on the frost potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 pm Monday: The first half of the short term will be dry
and a tad cool. In fact, Wed morning's min temps are forecast to be
around 5 degrees below normal in many areas, with the sheltered
valleys of the southwest NC mtns possibly seeing readings as much as
10 degrees below normal. This would place them well into "frost
supportive" territory, and this potential will continue to be
highlighted in the HWO.

By Wed evening, a potent, albeit steadily dampening mid-level short
wave trough and associated cyclone are expected to lift out of the
southern Great Plains toward the TN/OH Valleys, and this will be the
next  precip maker for our forecast area. Short term guidance
generally agrees in focusing an axis of enhanced precip along a warm
frontal boundary across the Southeast...somewhat similar to this
morning's event...although they aren't in the greatest of agreement
on exactly where this will occur. In fact, a consensus of
deterministic guidance (the GFS being more or less the only holdout)
suggest a Miller-B type scenario, with secondary cyclogenesis
commencing near the Carolina coast on Thursday, while the first
cyclone weakens across the Ohio Valley/central Appalachians. In this
scenario, the stronger forcing would be most likely to set up south
and east of the forecast area.

Despite the uncertainty regarding the details, at least widespread
light precip should develop over the forecast area during the day
Thu, warranting categorical pops across the entire area. Instability
is expected to limited to areas immediately ahead of occluding front
that will cross the area Thu afternoon/evening. Convection could
develop in this environment, with forecast sbCAPE magnitudes likely
supporting some risk of severe convection, although weakening
forcing and shear should limit that threat to some extent.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 225 pm Monday: In the wake of the late short term storm
system, another short wave trough is forecast to dive from the
northern Great Plains at the start of the period...evolving into a
strong cyclone in the vicinity of the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes by
Saturday evening.  Attendant frontal zone will bring the next chance
for precipitation to our forecast area for Saturday. Guidance once
again gums up the works a bit with a suggestion of secondary low
pressure development across the Carolinas/mid-Atlantic, while there
is also some question about the quality of moisture return in the
wake of the Thursday system. Nevertheless, guidance depicts
occluding frontal zone passing through the area during the
afternoon/evening, and interacting with a moderately unstable air
mass. Thus, at least scattered strong to perhaps severe convection
is on the table for Saturday.

While the medium range will start out warm, the remainder of the
period will see drying and cooling conditions, with temps expected
to be near to slightly below normal by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: An early round of weak convection arriving in
the southern Appalachians from the west toward daybreak is expected
to weaken and diminish as it moves east through the later morning
hours. This will keep the coverage too sparse to mention in the TAFs
at present. A second round of showers could well fan out along a
cold front arriving from the northwest during the afternoon. Again,
coverage should be limited by the drying dewpoints with mixing, but
KAVL to KHKY could see the best chance of a vicinity shower this
afternoon. The light southwesterly flow early will turn westerly and
yield gusts quite quickly today. Peak winds this afternoon may
produce gusts above 30 kt, especially at KAVL, due to deep mixing.
The winds will gradually abate with sundown east of the mountains,
but likely keep going at KAVL well into tonight. A westerly cross
wind will be possible at KCLT, but will keep winds on the WSW side
for the early part of the afternoon, then toggle WNW after 19Z with
the deepest mixing.

Outlook: VFR conditions continue Wednesday before another moist
system with associated flight restrictions arrive on Thursday.
Drying and improving conditions return on Friday, but with yet
another system arriving Saturday.

Confidence Table...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO/JDL
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
132 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-211745-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
132 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Areas of frost and a spotty freeze will be possible in parts of the
North Carolina mountains late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
Frost will be most likely in the sheltered mountain river valleys.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ001>014-019-211745-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union NC-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
132 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
921 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

SCZ007-013-210145-
Union SC-Spartanburg SC-
921 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN SPARTANBURG AND
NORTHWESTERN UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM EDT...

At 921 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southeast of Spartanburg, or near Cedar Springs, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Spartanburg, Pacolet, Roebuck, Buffalo, Jonesville, Pacolet Mills,
Croft State Park, Cedar Springs, Moore and Pauline.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 8201 3500 8189 3495 8176 3493 8175
      3493 8174 3491 8170 3491 8168 3490 8167
      3490 8164 3488 8164 3488 8160 3486 8155
      3464 8174
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 305DEG 16KT 3489 8188

TDP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
942 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

SCZ013-210215-
Union SC-
942 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN UNION COUNTY UNTIL 1015
PM EDT...

At 942 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Union, or near Jonesville, moving southeast at 25
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Union, Monarch Mill, Jonesville, Lockhart, Buffalo and Adamsburg.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3479 8179 3484 8178 3491 8171 3490 8165
      3488 8163 3489 8159 3487 8156 3488 8153
      3487 8153 3488 8152 3487 8148 3485 8146
      3484 8146 3482 8149 3481 8147 3477 8145
      3474 8149 3466 8151
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 294DEG 23KT 3484 8172

TDP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1017 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

SCZ013-014-210245-
Union SC-Chester SC-
1017 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN CHESTER AND NORTHEASTERN
UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM EDT...

At 1017 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles east of Union, or near Monarch Mill, moving southeast at 20
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Union, Chester, Monarch Mill, Lockhart, Carlisle, Chester State Park,
Leeds, Adamsburg and Santuc.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3469 8167 3485 8157 3473 8119 3457 8130
      3457 8142 3454 8143
TIME...MOT...LOC 0217Z 298DEG 19KT 3474 8155

TDP