Tornado Warning 56, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

205 
WWUS52 KGSP 102338
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
738 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

SCC073-110015-
/O.CON.KGSP.TO.W.0056.000000T0000Z-201011T0015Z/
Oconee SC-
738 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN OCONEE COUNTY...
    
At 738 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 6 miles southwest of Walhalla, or 4 miles northwest of
Westminster, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Walhalla around 750 PM EDT.
  Oconee State Park around 820 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this dangerous storm include Long Creek
and Mountain Rest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A brief, weak tornado is likely. Mobile homes could be flipped.
Falling trees can cause death or serious injury, and major damage to
houses. Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of
a sturdy building.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3476 8332 3479 8332 3481 8330 3482 8331
      3482 8327 3485 8327 3485 8325 3488 8324
      3488 8321 3489 8320 3492 8316 3493 8316
      3493 8314 3495 8312 3470 8303 3461 8323
      3465 8328 3474 8334
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 158DEG 12KT 3470 8315 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

RWH

911 
WWUS52 KGSP 102352
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
752 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

SCC073-110015-
/O.CON.KGSP.TO.W.0056.000000T0000Z-201011T0015Z/
Oconee SC-
752 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN OCONEE COUNTY...
    
At 752 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 5 miles west of Walhalla, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Oconee State Park around 830 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this dangerous storm include Long Creek
and Mountain Rest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A brief, weak tornado is likely. Mobile homes could be flipped.
Falling trees can cause death or serious injury, and major damage to
houses. Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of
a sturdy building.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3476 8332 3479 8332 3481 8330 3482 8331
      3482 8327 3485 8327 3485 8325 3488 8324
      3488 8321 3489 8320 3492 8316 3493 8316
      3493 8314 3495 8312 3475 8305 3470 8323
      3474 8334
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 172DEG 12KT 3475 8315 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

RWH

494 
WWUS52 KGSP 110014
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
814 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

SCC073-110024-
/O.EXP.KGSP.TO.W.0056.000000T0000Z-201011T0015Z/
Oconee SC-
814 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN OCONEE COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
815 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3476 8332 3479 8332 3481 8330 3482 8331
      3482 8327 3485 8327 3485 8325 3488 8324
      3488 8321 3489 8320 3492 8316 3493 8316
      3493 8314 3495 8312 3475 8305 3470 8323
      3474 8334
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 157DEG 12KT 3482 8318 

$$

RWH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
513 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Tropical Storm Delta will move northeast from
northern Mississippi to reach eastern Kentucky Sunday night.
Abundant moisture east of the circulation will stream over the
southern Appalachians and surrounding areas through the rest of the
weekend. The remnant low will reach Pennsylvania on Monday as our
weather becomes drier.  Expect a cold front to cross our region from
the northwest early Tuesday. Drier high pressure will settle in
behind the front through Thursday, with another cold front
approaching from the northwest on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 513 PM EDT Saturday: A Flash Flood Watch remains in
effect for portions of the area.

Minor adjustment made to temps/PoPs/present wx to coincide with
latest trends as the rest of the near term forecast remains on
track. With a cluster of heavy downpours near and along the I-77
corridor, elsewhere an overall lull in precipitation is taking place
across the area, with another round of activity beginning to move
into northeast GA as precipitation from PTC Delta continues to
spiral across the TN Valley/Southeast. Current temps are in the mid
60s to around 70 degrees.

Previous discussion: Rain amounts look to increase later tonight and
on Sunday as remnant of Delta passes northwest of the area.  Current
weak northeasterly CAD regime will become more southeasterly and
increase moisture and precipitation, especially in upslope areas of
the Southern Appalachians.  Storm Total QPF forecast has not changed
a lot, with isolated pockets of 3 to 6 inches possible in the
escarpment areas, and 1 to 3 inches elsewhere. Will expand the FF
watch slightly to Buncombe, Yancey, and Mitchell counties to better
encapsulate expected precipitation. Timing of heaviest precipitation
period is difficult to be precise about.  So far, no hydro issues
have arisen with light to moderate rainfall that has been
effectively soaked up by the ground that has been dried from 2 weeks
with little rain.  High-res models suggest heaviest period,
especially in upslope areas, will be just ahead of the main outer
rainband of the Delta remnant that begins to affect the area after
dark tonight.

Circulation from Delta will enhance wind profiles and give some
gusts at higher elevations.  Wind shear profiles will be generally
good enough for severe weather tonight and on Sunday, in areas of
non-trivial CAPE.  Chances for convection are limited this afternoon
to a slight chance south of I85, with somewhat better chances on
Sunday afternoon, as some breaks in cloud cover allow temperatures
to warm.  CAPE forecasts, and forecasts of sigtor reach notable
levels with some afternoon heating on Sunday, over basically the
eastern half of the CWA, and is consistent with some strong updrafts
seen in high-res models at that time.  This area is currently under
a marginal SPC risk category, but some part of that area may need to
be raised, and will at least bear watching.

Any severe weather is likely to be on the tail end of the event as
the system that was Delta pulls out to the northeast, with clouds
and rain in decline Sunday evening outside of isolated convective
storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 pm Saturday: Trough axis associated with the remnants of
T.C. Delta will be lifting across the forecast area at the start of
the period, with lingering potential for locally excessive rainfall.
Additionally,  continued moderate sbCAPE aligned with adequate shear
in the warm sector will support a persistent threat for isolated
severe convection across the Piedmont. Likely to categorical pops
are warranted across much of the forecast area through the evening.

The remainder of the short term will be characterized by rising
heights, supporting unseasonably warm weather, max temps expected to
average around 5 degrees above climo, and mins 10-15 degrees above
normal. Conditions will otherwise become increasingly dry, although
some lingering showers will be possible into Monday morning.
Northern stream height falls Monday night and early Tuesday will
allow a frontal boundary to approach the area from the TN Valley.
With the Gulf of Mexico expected to be more or less closed for
business during this time, small pops (20-30%) with the front will
be primarily confined to the Tennessee border.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 225 pm Saturday: Although the front that will cross the area
late in the short term will advect drier air into the region,
conditions will generally remain unseasonably warm through about the
first half of the period. By late in the week, global models agree
that a major trough will take shape across the eastern Conus, with
associated strong frontal zone expected to push into the area on
Friday. The models are not in the best agreement regarding the
magnitude of the moisture/forcing associated with the front, so only
token small pops are carried from late Thu night through Friday.
However, guidance does agree that a major cooling trend will occur
for the Fri/Sat time frame, when temps will likely dip to 10 degrees
below climo...at least. Widespread frost and perhaps some freeze
concerns can therefore be expected across the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere:  Poor conditions for all of the TAF sites for
the next 24 hours as circulation from Delta brings extensive
showers, low visibility, and low CIGS to the area.  Timing of
periods of heaviest precipitation is a little vague, but current
radar trends and high-res models have heaviest periods generally
after 00Z, and continuing off-and on through 18Z.  Upslope areas,
KAVL and KHKY in particular, may see more or less continuous
moderate to heavy precipitation.  Winds are expected to be somewhat
variable at times, though mostly southeasterly.  Current CIGS are
around 300 feet over much of the area, and there is little reason to
expect much improvement until late in the TAF period when system
will start to lift out.  Visibility will also be low until then.
Some CAPE this afternoon gives some chance for thunder south of I85,
at KAND in particular, with better chances for thunder Sunday
afternoon, especially around KCLT.

Outlook: Rain chances and low cigs will persist Sunday as the
remnants of TC Delta approach the area. The remnants will exit to
the east by early Monday, with gradual drying thru Tuesday.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       Med   73%     High  85%     High  81%     High  92%
KGSP       Low   58%     High  86%     High 100%     Med   69%
KAVL       Low   53%     High  83%     High  85%     Low   58%
KHKY       Med   76%     Med   78%     High  95%     Med   75%
KGMU       Med   60%     High  91%     High  91%     High  82%
KAND       Med   60%     Med   66%     High  86%     High  81%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for GAZ010-017.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for NCZ033-049-050-
     052-053-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for SCZ001>003.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SGL/WJM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WJM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
546 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

NCZ048-051-058-112200-
Madison-Swain-Graham-
546 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Periods of heavy rainfall associated with the remnants of tropical
cyclone Delta will impact the area tonight. Streams and main stem
rivers will see considerable rises. In addition, winds may gust to 30
to 40 mph along the highest ridge tops of the mountains tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Heavy rainfall associated with the Delta remnants will continue
Sunday before gradually tapering off Sunday night. Despite the recent
dry weather, isolated flooding will be possible, especially in
locations closer to the Blue Ridge mountains where 2 to 4 inches of
rain are most likely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-049-050-052-053-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-
112200-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Buncombe-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
546 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

In addition, winds may gust to 30 to 40 mph along the highest ridge
tops of the mountains tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed flooding to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ007>009-013-014-112200-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Union SC-
Chester-
546 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Periods of heavy rainfall associated with the remnants of tropical
cyclone Delta will impact the area tonight. Streams and main stem
rivers will see steady rises.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Heavy rainfall associated with the Delta remnants will continue
Sunday before gradually tapering off Sunday night. Despite the recent
dry weather, isolated flooding will be possible, especially in
locations closer to the mountains where 1 to 3 inches of rain are
likely.

Strong thunderstorms may also develop on Sunday, especially during
the afternoon hours. Isolated severe thunderstorms could develop,
especially in locations along and southeast of Interstate 85, with
damaging winds the primary threat. A brief tornado cannot be ruled
out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ018-026-028-029-SCZ004>006-010>012-019-112200-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Greenwood-
546 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Periods of heavy rainfall associated with the remnants of tropical
cyclone Delta will impact the area today through tonight. Streams
and main stem rivers will see steady rises. Isolated thunderstorms
are also possible tonight, with cloud to ground lightning and locally
heavy rainfall the mains threats. However, a severe thunderstorm with
damaging winds cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Heavy rainfall associated with the Delta remnants will continue
Sunday before gradually tapering off Sunday night. Despite the recent
dry weather, isolated flooding will be possible, especially in
locations closer to the mountains where 1 to 3 inches of rain are
likely.

Stronger thunderstorms may also develop on Sunday, especially during
the afternoon hours. Isolated severe thunderstorms could develop,
especially in locations southeast of Interstate 85, with damaging
winds the primary threat. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
411 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

NCZ068>070-SCZ008-102045-
Gaston NC-Cleveland NC-Lincoln NC-Cherokee SC-
411 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT WESTERN
LINCOLN...CLEVELAND...WESTERN GASTON AND NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 411 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms with torrential
rainfall along a line extending from 12 miles northwest of York to 9
miles southwest of Lincolnton, and moving northeast at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Shelby, Gaffney, Lincolnton, Kings Mountain, Cherryville, Bessemer
City, Boiling Springs NC, Blacksburg, Belwood and Grover.

Very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3556 8121 3555 8120 3516 8127 3517 8137
      3514 8140 3509 8141 3502 8174 3548 8164
      3557 8151
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 213DEG 21KT 3510 8143 3541 8139

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
424 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

NCZ069>072-082-SCZ009-102100-
Gaston NC-Union NC-Lincoln NC-Cabarrus NC-Mecklenburg NC-York SC-
424 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT CABARRUS...
EASTERN LINCOLN...MECKLENBURG...EASTERN GASTON...NORTHWESTERN UNION
AND NORTHEASTERN YORK COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 424 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms with torrential
rainfall along a line extending from 5 miles northeast of Gastonia to
12 miles east of Uptown Charlotte, and moving northeast at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Gastonia, Uptown Charlotte, Huntersville, Kannapolis, Downtown
Concord, Central Charlotte, South Charlotte, Northeast Charlotte,
Southwest Charlotte and East Charlotte.

Very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3519 8051 3517 8049 3495 8079 3508 8091
      3501 8091 3498 8089 3508 8129 3555 8103
      3554 8095 3553 8094 3553 8095 3550 8096
      3549 8095 3551 8091 3550 8058 3543 8034
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 217DEG 24KT 3530 8109 3517 8064

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
446 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

NCZ035-036-056-057-069>072-082-102115-
Rowan NC-Gaston NC-Iredell NC-Union NC-Lincoln NC-Cabarrus NC-
Mecklenburg NC-Alexander NC-Catawba NC-
446 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT CABARRUS...
EASTERN CATAWBA...SOUTHEASTERN ALEXANDER...IREDELL...LINCOLN...
NORTHERN MECKLENBURG...ROWAN...NORTHERN GASTON AND NORTHEASTERN UNION
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 445 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms with torrential
rainfall along a line extending from 5 miles south of Newton to 8
miles east of Downtown Concord, and moving northeast at 40 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Huntersville, Kannapolis, Downtown Concord, Salisbury, Statesville,
Newton, Lincolnton, Northeast Charlotte, Northwest Charlotte and West
Concord.

Very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8030 3519 8051 3516 8044 3518 8037
      3517 8034 3513 8037 3539 8143 3542 8146
      3597 8098 3591 8070 3585 8070 3586 8069
      3584 8063 3579 8053 3578 8048 3573 8045
      3572 8034 3568 8033 3558 8021 3551 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 221DEG 37KT 3559 8119 3541 8044

RWH