Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
533 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A return to more typical isolated to scattered summertime
thunderstorm activity is expected over the weekend as modest drying
arrives from the west.  Deeper moisture will gradually return early
next week and support a more active pattern from mid-week onward.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 520 PM EDT Friday: The low stratocu has finally scattered out
across the Piedmont, but may be a little too late in the day to
support much more than isolated deep convection at this point. Have
tweaked PoPs based on latest trends, which are generally lower
coverage. Otherwise, the forecast is on track.

For the rest of this evening, expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms with a few strong/severe thunderstorms possible that
could produce gusty winds. However, given available instability and
upper trough along with plenty of moisture in place, the primary
concern for today will be heavy downpours/localized flooding,
especially in any slow moving/anchored storms. With that, will note
that soils, especially across the northern foothills, are decently
saturated and some waterways are slightly elevated from storms
yesterday that lasted through early this morning.

Expect convection to wane into tonight per latest CAMs with low
stratus infiltrating in once again and patchy fog before daybreak.
Min temps will fall to around normal.

On Saturday, upper trough will continue to lift off to the northeast
and offshore while sfc high pressure begins to slowly nose in from
the NW. Lingering weak trough over the Carolinas with SW flow
bringing in moisture and daytime heating will allow for isolated
showers once again in the afternoon and evenings hours. However,
expect coverage to be less than today. Max temps will climb to
around normal once again, but will have to see how long low cloud
cover lingers through the morning hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 214 PM EDT Friday: The last vestiges of the old upper
trof will depart slowly to the east on Saturday night, leaving
behind a weak, non-descript upper flow and weak high pressure
at the surface. This should result in an environment that is
considerably less-friendly to deep convection on Sunday and into
Monday. Forecast soundings for Sunday, in particular, show a
mid level cap that will probably keep a lid on all but isolated
storms in the afternoon. Temps will climb a bit...maybe a category
above normal...but fortunately the dewpoint should mix out in the
afternoon, keeping the heat index in check. Monday should be more
of the same as the pattern barely evolves. The mid-level cap is not
expected to be as unbreakable, and sfc dewpts should not mix out
as much, so we should be able to get back to climo precip probs
in the afternoon. Neither day holds much of a threat for severe
storms as it stands right now. Temps will remain above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 224 PM EDT Friday: The upper pattern slowly morphs
back into the recently-familiar weak upper trof to the west on
Tuesday into Wednesday...and with that we can expect a return of
the diurnally-enhanced numerous showers and thunderstorms each
day. The model guidance out in the medium range does not really
pick up on any subtle features that will drive any increases in
coverage or intensity on any particular day, but suffice to say
in this pattern with a weak southerly flow at this time of year,
it is usually active in the late afternoon and evening. High temps
will gradually drop back toward normal as the afternoon coverage
of storms increases each day through the end of the week, and
low temps will be close to normal. In short...more typical summer
through the middle of August.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: A mixture of VFR/MVFR prevails at the TAF
sites this afternoon where low clouds continue to linger across
outside of the mountains with latest radar imagery depicting showers
developing across the area. Expect lower cigs to continue to improve
over the next hour or two with increasing chances for SHRA/TSRA as
noted by VCSH/VCTS and TEMPO groups. Anticipate convection to
dissipate into this evening with flight restrictions returning
overnight into early Friday morning due to low cigs and areas of
fog, especially in the mountain valleys. Into late morning on
Saturday, expect conditions to improve to VFR with VCSH/VCTS
possible just beyond the valid TAF period.

Outlook: Coverage of thunderstorms will be more isolated to widely
scattered during the afternoon and evening over the weekend. Morning
fog/stratus restrictions will also be possible, especially over the
usual mountain valleys. Increased coverage of diurnal storms is
expected again early next week. Otherwise expect VFR.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     Med   76%     High  94%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     Med   63%     High  96%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     Med   78%     High  96%
KHKY       High 100%     High  91%     High  83%     High  98%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     Med   73%     High  98%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     Med   71%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...ARK/12
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
626 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-081030-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
626 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop across
the region again this afternoon and evening. Any of these thunderstorms
will be capable of producing dangerous lightning, gusty winds, and
torrential downpours. A few storms may become severe, with damaging
wind gusts being the primary threat. Any locations repeatedly
affected by thunderstorms over a short period of time will be prone
to localized flash flooding from the heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
542 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

NCZ035-502-072215-
Greater Caldwell NC-Alexander NC-
542 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT WEST
CENTRAL ALEXANDER AND EASTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 542 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 4 miles northeast of Lenoir, or over Cedar Rock,
moving northeast at 5 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Lenoir, Hudson, Cedar Rock, Sawmills, Kings Creek, Little River In
Alexander County, Ellendale and Patterson.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3605 8139 3604 8140 3604 8137 3600 8133
      3601 8131 3601 8130 3591 8122 3581 8147
      3596 8160 3597 8158 3607 8141
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 234DEG 6KT 3593 8147

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
546 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

NCZ504-072215-
Greater Burke NC-
546 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEASTERN BURKE COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 545 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 4 miles southeast of Morganton, or near Drexel,
moving east at 5 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Morganton, Valdese, Icard, Drexel, Connelly Springs, Rutherford
College, Lake Rhodhiss, South Mountains State Park and Pleasant
Grove.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3578 8155 3579 8146 3578 8144 3577 8144
      3563 8148 3561 8151 3557 8154 3556 8156
      3563 8173 3581 8169 3581 8158
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 282DEG 5KT 3571 8163

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
546 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

NCZ505>508-072215-
Greater Rutherford NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-
Eastern McDowell NC-
546 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL AND NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 615
PM EDT...

At 546 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 12 miles southwest of Marion, or 5 miles south of
Old Fort, moving east at 5 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Old Fort, Lake Lure, Shingle Hollow, Green Hill, Sugar Hill,
Glenwood, Fero and Thermal City.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3565 8195 3539 8202 3547 8225 3550 8222
      3551 8223 3552 8223 3553 8217 3555 8222
      3556 8224 3566 8222
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 282DEG 5KT 3556 8216

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
559 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

SCZ009-072230-
York SC-
559 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEASTERN YORK COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

At 559 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 5 miles southeast of York, or near Newport, moving
east at 5 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Rock Hill, York, Tega Cay, Newport, Mcconnells, Fort Mill and Lake
Wylie.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 45 mph, pea size
hail and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be
possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3482 8101 3482 8110 3488 8126 3506 8121
      3506 8105 3504 8104 3506 8101 3506 8095
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 282DEG 5KT 3496 8116

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
600 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

NCZ048-049-072230-
Yancey NC-Madison NC-
600 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT EAST
CENTRAL MADISON AND CENTRAL YANCEY COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

At 600 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 7 miles west of Burnsville. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Locations to be impacted include...
Burnsville, Ramseytown, Swiss, Wolf Ridge, Green Mountain and Faust.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 45 mph, pea size
hail and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be
possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3602 8227 3600 8227 3599 8226 3576 8229
      3577 8234 3580 8234 3582 8236 3582 8238
      3581 8244 3581 8246 3580 8247 3582 8253
      3598 8251 3601 8247 3603 8228
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 275DEG 4KT 3591 8243

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
621 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

NCZ056-504-072245-
Greater Burke NC-Catawba NC-
621 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT WESTERN
CATAWBA AND EAST CENTRAL BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 621 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning near Hickory, or over Longview. This storm was
nearly stationary.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Longview, Icard, Hildebran, Rhodhiss,
Hickory Regional Airport, Mountain View and Lake Hickory.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3557 8124 3564 8148 3579 8146 3576 8140
      3576 8138 3577 8135 3578 8136 3580 8134
      3580 8130 3581 8126 3582 8125 3581 8122
      3582 8121
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 275DEG 4KT 3573 8139

RWH