Severe Thunderstorm Warning 306, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
509 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected over
the next few days. High temperatures will be slightly below normal
through the weekend due to ample moisture and increased cloud cover.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 5 pm EDT Thursday: Thunderstorm coverage has focused most
strongly over the NC foothills and Piedmont late this afternoon, but
outflows moving southward should permit another round of numerous
storms to develop along the southern foothills, Upstate SC, and
northeast GA through the evening hours. Although sbCAPE values
remain near 3000 J/kg late this afternoon, warm temperatures aloft
and modest lapse rates are keeping most thunderstorms from becoming
severe. Heavy rainfall will remain the primary threat given the weak
steering flow. With the residual boundaries and SELY upslope flow,
expect activity to linger well into the overnight hours.

Another similar day is expected on Friday, with comparable
instability to the past few days and a continued threat of isolated
severe thunderstorms. The bigger threat will once again be localized
flash flooding from slowly moving cells. Otherwise, high temps will
be near normal for mid-August.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday: A mid level trof will traverse the area
this weekend. Friday night, Saturday and Saturday night will feature
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. With precipitable
water values near 2 inches and slow storm motion, some areas could
receive heavy rain and localized flooding is possible. The trof axis
will move through the area by Sunday leading to west to northwest
flow and drying across the area. Pops will be much lower on Sunday.

Due to the increased cloud cover on Saturday, highs will be limited
to the mid 80s in the Piedmont and to around 80 in the mountain
valleys. Highs will climb back into the upper 80s in the Piedmont
and lower 80s in the valleys on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday: Another mid level trof will develop
across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley for the early to middle part of
next week. The atmosphere will start out drier on Monday but then
moisture quickly for Tuesday and Wednesday. Thus, pops will be on
the increase through the period with locally heavy rainfall possible.

Highs will be near climo on Monday and then a few degrees below
climo for the middle part of the week due to increased clouds and
rain.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Another round of thunderstorms this evening
has a good chance of affecting any of the TAF sites with temporary
IFR conditions. Timing is similar to recent days, with thunderstorms
from now until after sunset.  Outside of gusts from storm outflows,
winds are light and variable as a weak upper pattern is in place.
Upper pattern becomes less weak Friday afternoon as a mid-level
shortwave organizes west of the region. This is expected to increase
coverage and duration of storms for Friday afternoon, and give a
more general southwesterly wind direction in areas south of I85.
Some fog and low CIGs are also possible Friday morning, similar to
the pattern seen this morning, especially in mountain valleys
affected by recent rains.

Outlook: Above normal coverage of diurnal convection is expected thru
the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Fog and low stratus
restrictions will be possible each morning, especially over the usual
mountain valleys.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     Med   73%     High  86%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     Med   69%     High  81%
KAVL       High 100%     High  80%     Med   68%     High  86%
KHKY       High 100%     High  97%     Low   36%     High  94%
KGMU       High 100%     High  94%     High  81%     Med   79%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High  86%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...HG/WJM
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...HG/WJM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
459 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-142100-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
459 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop across the region through the evening hours, with coverage
slowly diminishing through the early morning hours. The primary
threats with these storms will be frequent cloud to ground lightning,
locally heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. Storms and heavy rain
showers will occasionally become stationary, posing a threat of
excessive rainfall and flash flooding, especially in locations that
have received heavy rainfall over the past few days.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

HG

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