Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

036 
WWUS52 KGSP 112332
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
632 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

NCC075-113-173-112342-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200111T2345Z/
Macon NC-Swain NC-Graham NC-
632 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN MACON...SWAIN AND
EASTERN GRAHAM COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight EST for western
North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3555 8378 3558 8360 3556 8358 3556 8350
      3561 8345 3567 8333 3565 8331 3500 8349
      3500 8352 3502 8352 3515 8365 3515 8373
      3519 8371 3520 8373 3523 8369 3526 8371
      3524 8375 3526 8379 3524 8387
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 216DEG 67KT 3632 8296 3579 8310 

$$

KRENTZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
211 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system with its associated cold front will
cross the southern Appalachians tonight bringing storms and heavy
rain.  After brief drying on Sunday, unsettled weather returns for
the first half of the week. Cooler and dry high pressure will be in
control Thursday and Friday.  Another wet system arrives next
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 210 PM EST Saturday: Shower coverage continues to increase
this afternoon in the moist southerly flow across the area. Expect
the coverage to expand into the evening ahead of the approaching
squall line and associated cold front. Gusty S to SW winds will
continue as well, with the highest winds over the higher elevations
of the Wind Advisory area.

Conditions are looking more favorable for severe storms this
evening. CAM guidance shows favorable muCAPE, shear, and helicity
values developing as the squall line approaches. This guidance shows
streaks of updraft helicity moving in as well. The system is very
dynamic, a strong lead short wave does cross the area providing
plenty of forcing even with the main short wave passing to our NW.
there is also quite a bit of divergence as the right entrance region
of an upper jet moves in. This will provide plenty of forcing for
ascent. Despite the clouds and showers across the area, there is no
sign of any cold air damming developing with very anomalously high
temps and dew points in place and gusty southerly winds. When it's
warm, humid, and windy in January, bad things can happen. After
coordinating with SPC, the Slight Risk of severe storms will be
expanded east into our area to give some lead time for a potential
Watch. There are still some timing differences with the squall line
with some guidance faster than others. A couple of runs even show
the initial line weakening and a second line along the front
strengthening. This the faster, stronger initial line scenario is
better. This brings the squall line into the CWFA around 00Z, into
the I-26 corridor by 03Z, and into the I-77 corridor by 06Z. This
could even be a little slow. Will leave the Wind Advisory as is for
now, as the strongest gradient winds will be over the higher
elevations. Stronger winds into the High Wind Warning criteria will
likely be associated with the squall line itself and can be
addressed with Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. Given the strength of
this system and amount of shear and helicity, an isolated tornado is
possible as well. There will still be quite a bit of QPF across the
southern Escarpment and Southwestern NC mountains. However, given
the fast movement of this system, do not expect any widespread
flooding problems. Isolated flooding will be possible.

Weak high pressure builds in behind the front Sunday. The pressure
gradient relaxes quickly given the weakness of the high. Winds
should drop off quickly, even across the mountains. Expect clearing
skies during the morning. The front stalls to our south with waves
of low pressure moving along it. This will bring moisture and clouds
back into the area south of I-85 during the afternoon along low
precip chances. Highs will be 15 to 20 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Sat: Longwave central-CONUS trough and western Atlantic
high pressure will remain in place into midweek. Between these
features, a wavering, weak baroclinic zone will maintain generally
unsettled weather for our FA. This will begin Sunday night as
southwesterly flow atop the old cold front brings it northward again,
and weak isentropic lift occurs overhead; slight elevated instability
could produce the occasional rumble of thunder. The lift over the
front strengthens later Monday, and especially Monday night, in
advance of a low pressure system that will move from the northern
Plains toward the northeast, within the so-called wave train. Models
differ somewhat in how the eastward movement of that low affects the
area but depict the next shortwave in the train soon following
behind. The consensus suggests a drying trend between the lows, and
a decline in PoPs, to end the short range.

Max temps will remain 15 to 20 degrees above normal, with mins on the
order of 25 above normal--close to if not warmer than normal maxes.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sat: The ill-defined baroclinic zone will remain across
the region until one more shortwave crosses the Upper Midwest. This
suggests warm and wet conditions will continue for the FA until cold
front sweeps through sometime Thursday. Though temps will trend down
immediately following the fropa, downsloping will keep them
substantially above normal for one more day. A narrow upper ridge and
strong sfc high then move into the eastern CONUS, setting up dry wx
and more seasonable temps for the region Thu night and Fri. A
full-latitude trough sweeping across the Plains will induce deep
cyclogenesis around that time. As this new system nears the area
Friday night and moisture spreads back in from the west/southwest, it
is not out of the question high elevations will experience mixed
wintry precip.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Tricky forecast with a wide variety of MVFR
to IFR cigs and VFR to IFR vsby depending on whether a shower is
affecting a terminal. Have tried to cover the current conditions
with general deterioration in cigs and vsby as shower coverage
increases ahead of an approaching cold front. Gusty southerly winds
will continue through the afternoon. MVFR to IFR conditions continue
through the evening with a chance of TSRA as the front moves
through. Stronger and gustier SW winds are expected. Conditions
improve behind the front as precip and low clouds end and any vsby
restriction dissipates. Gusty SSW wind continues behind the front
then diminishes toward daybreak. VFR and generally light winds
expected for the bulk of the day Sunday.

Outlook: Moisture, precip, and associated restrictions will return
from the south Sunday night and persist thru at least the first half
of next week.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High  95%     High  97%     High  93%     High 100%
KGSP       Med   78%     High  86%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  82%     Med   77%     High 100%     High  98%
KHKY       High  84%     Med   66%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       Med   74%     High  86%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High  80%     High  84%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for GAZ010-017.
NC...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for NCZ033-048>053-058-059-
     062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
531 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ001>014-019-121045-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Caldwell-
Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
531 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A line of heavy rain showers with embedded thunderstorms is expected
to cross the area tonight along a cold front. Very gusty winds are
expected to accompany the line of showers and storms, with isolated
damaging winds possible. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out.
Occasional cloud to ground lightning and very heavy rainfall can
occur with any storm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of damaging winds,
tornadoes, or flooding to our office.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-501-503-505-121045-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
531 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

In addition to the Wind Advisory, a line of heavy rain showers with
embedded thunderstorms is expected to begin crossing the area this
evening. This is expected to enhance the already gusty winds that
will be in place across the mountains, and could bring locally
damaging winds to the valley floors. A brief tornado also cannot be
ruled out. Occasional cloud to ground and very heavy rainfall can
occur with any storm.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of damaging winds,
tornadoes, or flooding to our office.

GAZ010-017-NCZ062>065-507-509-121045-
Rabun-Habersham-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
531 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and western
North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

In addition to the Wind Advisory, a line of heavy rain showers with
embedded thunderstorms is expected to begin crossing the area this
evening. This is expected to enhance the already gusty winds that
will be in place across the mountains, and could bring locally
damaging winds to the valley floors. A brief tornado also cannot be
ruled out. Heavy rain falling on top of an already wet ground from
today's shower activity could result in localized flooding of
streams, creeks, and poorly drained areas of the southern North
Carolina mountains this evening. Finally, occasional cloud to ground
lightning can occur with any storm.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of damaging winds,
tornadoes, or flooding to our office.

Lane