River Flood Warning 22, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
345 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air will make it's way into the region later today in the wake
of a strong cold front.  A wave of low pressure moving along the
stationary front located just south of our region will bring a
chance of precipitation back to the area late Tuesday and early
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Monday: A Tornado Watch and Flood Watch remain in
effect for portions of the FA attm, along with a Wind Advisory.

The anticipated line of convection continues to push it's way into
the FA this morning ahead of a cold front, with strong to severe
thunderstorms (some indicating low level rotation) across the
western portions, allowing for the issuance of warnings. This event
continues to be a high shear, low CAPE event. The primary threat
through the morning hours will be damaging straightline winds and a
few tornadoes, though with notable DCAPE, could not entirely rule
out a downburst. Flooding concerns are ongoing as well, with an
additional one inch of rain possible through this morning, one to
two inches across the upslope areas. Expect this activity to push
eastward over the next few hours as the front pushes gradually
through the area.

Late morning/early afternoon, behind the front, expect conditions to
quickly improve with sfc high pressure gradually building in from
the west and broad upper troughing encompassing the entire CONUS. As
clouds dissipate, expect gusty SW winds through the afternoon,
becoming light into the evening as they continue to veer to the WNW.
Thus, the Wind Advisory for a majority of the area will remain in
effect through this afternoon. Max temperatures will climb above
normal today as min temperatures tonight drop to around normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Monday: It still looks like we will creep our way
back into unsettled wx as weak llvl upglide develops on Tuesday
featuring weak sfc ridging nosing in and the sfc flow veering to
easterly.  Tuesday's sensible wx should wind up generally quiet
though, some increase in cloudiness later in the day and max temps
near the mid-April normal.  Within the broad sw aloft, upper heights
will continue to slowly fall though Tuesday night as broad and
channel vort energy encroaches. Within the improving llvl upglide
flow, shower cvrg may become numerous where the lift and moisture is
maximized, across the piedmont.  85h flow is progged to veer to the
NW on Wednesday resulting in downglide drying, the lingering shower
threat ending and diminishing cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Monday: The 00z medium range model suite shows
quasi-zonal flow aloft is still progged to be atop the region to
start off the period.  After a chilly and potentially frosty morning
on Thursday, expect sunshine to warm temperatures to about 5 deg F
below normal.  It remains to be seen on how much moisture returns
ahead of the northern stream baroclinic zone to result an any shower
threat, but at this point token small or slight chance mtn pops is
still OK, as maximum temperatures bump back to the mid-April normal.
Westerly flow and drying conditions should on through Saturday. Mid
to high level moisture may sneak back into the picture from the west
Sunday, with a return of late day shower PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: A mixture of MVFR/IFR prevails at all TAF
sites this morning, as showers and thunderstorms continue to push
into the area from the west. Through the morning hours, expect this
activity to bring periods of +RA and strong to severe +TSRA, along
with reduced vsbys and LIFR cigs, ahead of the approaching cold
front. South-southeast winds AOB 20 kts with higher gusts (30 to 35
kts) are expected through this morning ahead of the front. However,
will note periods of westerly winds will be possible with
convection, as noted by TEMPO groups. Behind the front, expect
conditions to improve from west to east, with convection tapering
off and cigs improving as clouds scatter out. With conditions
improving to VFR, expect winds to veer to the SW, with gusts
subsiding this afternoon.

Outlook: Potential for rain and flight restrictions Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Otherwise expect VFR.

Confidence Table...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       Med   78%     High  93%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High  84%     High  96%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  81%     High  95%     High  97%     High  95%
KHKY       High  87%     High  88%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       Med   75%     High  93%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High  84%     High  98%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for GAZ010-017.
     Wind Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for GAZ018-026-028-
     029.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     Wind Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ033-035>037-
     048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for SCZ001>003.
     Wind Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for SCZ003>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...12
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...12

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