River Flood Warning 15, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
943 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Colder, but drier, conditions will develop behind the front through
Friday. A swiftly moving system will cross the region on Saturday,
before dry high pressure sets up by Sunday. Another moist cold front
will approach the area slowly from the west during the early to
middle part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 935 PM EST: Last band of moderate showers is moving out of the
AVL to GFS area now. It will move across the CLT area before
midnight. Despite this, don't expect any now flash flooding but
widespread areal flooding will continue with significant runoff
remaining. Will keep the Flood Watch in place but will allow it to
expire at midnight. Significant flooding along some of the main stem
rivers will continue as well.

Still expect a late-evening fropa across the mountains, with strong
CAA bringing snow levels down to about 3500 ft by daybreak Friday.
Snow showers aren't expected to really get going until closer to
daybreak Friday. The 850 mb flow will be more due westerly, so not
real ideal for upslope snow showers. But still could see 1-3" of
snow accums along the TN border by end of the day Friday above 3500
ft. Not quite enough to warrant a winter weather advisory at this
point, but the next shift can reassess.

The next thing to consider is the winds. Expect winds to increase
across the area behind the front and become very gusty. Deep mixing
develops and with strong low level winds, expect wind gusts up to 40
mph developing toward morning and continuing for much of the day
Friday. Even though this is below Wind Advisory criteria, the ground
is very wet given the very heavy rainfall from today. This means
that trees can fall with lower than normal speeds. Will issue a Wind
Advisory for the entire forecast area for late tonight and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EST Thursday: The low pressure system currently
impacting the area will be moving away by Friday night and will be
replaced briefly by surface high pressure. The high will move
quickly off to the east on Saturday allowing a weak system to impact
the area Saturday afternoon and evening. High pressure will build
back in for Sunday.

Temperatures Friday night will drop into the teens and 20s in the
mountains and the upper 20s to lower 30s in the Piedmont. Winds may
be gusty in the higher mountain elevations. Saturday will be a cool
day as clouds and light precipitation move in. This will be rain
outside the mountains and a mix of rain and snow in the mountains.
It looks like there may be a few inches of snow accumulation at the
higher elevations in the southwest mountains of North Carolina.
Otherwise, any accumulations will be less than 1 inch.

Quiet conditions with seasonable temperatures are expected on
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Thursday: A mid level trough will develop across
the southwestern and central parts of the country for the early part
of next week. This will lead to a wet and warm pattern with at least
some risk of flooding. Not much time for details this afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Conditions are quite variable across the area
this evening even as showers continue. Expect the variable
restrictions to continue through the evening as showers finally
diminish toward midnight. Winds should generally be S to SW. Expect
MVFR cigs to linger after midnight but scattering out before
daybreak. Winds will become SW and gusty as a cold front crosses the
area tonight. MVFR will linger after daybreak at KAVL with wind
becoming NW and gusty. Very gusty winds will continue through the
daytime hours across the area. Low VFR to MVFR clouds will linger
across the mountains and may spill out across KHKY and KCLT during
the day. The SC sites may see a few clouds but should be mostly
clear.

Outlook: A quick-moving system will move through the region on
Saturday, with brief restrictions possible, before drying returns on
Sunday.

Confidence Table...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       Med   68%     High  98%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       Med   60%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  92%     High  88%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       Med   79%     High  88%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       Low   57%     High  98%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       Med   76%     High  91%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EST tonight for GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
     Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM EST Friday for GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EST tonight for NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
     Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM EST Friday for NCZ033-035>037-
     048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EST tonight for SCZ001>014-
     019.
     Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM EST Friday for SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...RWH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
617 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1232 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 NE CONCORD            35.50N 80.49W
02/06/2020                   CABARRUS           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTED ROOF BLOWN OFF A STRUCTURE, WITH ADDITIONAL
            DAMAGE TO HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS ALONG PHANIELS CHURCH
            RD. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

LANE