Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Elbert County, GA, Franklin County, GA, Habersham County, GA, Hart County, GA, Rabun County, GA, Stephens County, GA, Alexander County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Union County, NC, Yancey County, NC

231 
WWUS82 KGSP 101022
RFWGSP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
622 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

...WINDY AND VERY DRY AGAIN TODAY...

.Windy and dry conditions will continue today. This combined with
dry fuels are likely to produce critical fire weather conditions 
this afternoon and early evening.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-101815-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0002.200410T1600Z-200411T0000Z/
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-
622 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR NORTHEAST 
GEORGIA...

* AFFECTED AREA...Rabun, Habersham, Stephens, Franklin, Hart and
  Elbert Counties in Northeast Georgia.

* TIMING...Noon to 8 PM EDT today.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be very favorable for wildfire 
  ignitions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of 
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can 
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
8

124 
WWUS82 KGSP 101403
RFWGSP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1003 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

...WINDY AND VERY DRY AGAIN TODAY...

.Windy and dry conditions will continue today. This combined with
dry fuels are likely to produce critical fire weather conditions
this afternoon and early evening.

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-064-065-501-503-505-507-509-102200-
/O.EXB.KGSP.FW.W.0002.200410T1600Z-200410T2200Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Buncombe-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
1003 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued
a Red Flag Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is
in effect until 6 PM EDT this evening.

* AFFECTED AREA...Avery, Madison, Yancey, Mitchell, Haywood, 
  Buncombe, Transylvania, Henderson, Caldwell Mountains, Burke 
  Mountains, McDowell Mountains, Rutherford Mountains and Polk 
  Mountains.

* TIMING...Noon to 8 PM EDT today.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be very favorable for wildfire 
  ignitions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, .or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-102230-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0002.200410T1600Z-200411T0000Z/
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-
1003 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

* AFFECTED AREA...Rabun, Habersham, Stephens, Franklin, Hart and 
  Elbert.

* TIMING...Noon to 8 PM EDT today.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be very favorable for wildfire 
  ignitions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Krentz

105 
WWUS82 KGSP 101447
RFWGSP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1047 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

...WINDY AND VERY DRY AGAIN TODAY...

.Windy and dry conditions will continue today. This combined with
dry fuels are likely to produce critical fire weather conditions
this afternoon and early evening.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-102200-
/O.EXA.KGSP.FW.W.0002.200410T1600Z-200410T2200Z/
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-
Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
1047 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF
NORTH CAROLINA...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued
a Red Flag Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is
in effect until 6 PM EDT this evening.

* AFFECTED AREA...Alexander, Iredell, Davie, Catawba, Rowan, 
  Cleveland, Lincoln, Gaston, Mecklenburg, Cabarrus, Union NC, 
  Greater Caldwell, Greater Burke, Eastern McDowell, Greater 
  Rutherford and Eastern Polk.

* TIMING...Noon to 6 PM EDT today.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 17 percent.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be very favorable for wildfire 
  ignitions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, .or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-064-065-501-503-505-507-509-102200-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0002.200410T1600Z-200410T2200Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Buncombe-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
1047 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...

* AFFECTED AREA...Avery, Madison, Yancey, Mitchell, Haywood, 
  Buncombe, Transylvania, Henderson, Caldwell Mountains, Burke 
  Mountains, McDowell Mountains, Rutherford Mountains and Polk 
  Mountains.

* TIMING...Noon to 6 PM EDT today.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be very favorable for wildfire 
  ignitions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, .or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-102230-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0002.200410T1600Z-200411T0000Z/
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-
1047 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

* AFFECTED AREA...Rabun, Habersham, Stephens, Franklin, Hart and 
  Elbert.

* TIMING...Noon to 8 PM EDT today.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be very favorable for wildfire 
  ignitions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

KRENTZ

739 
WWUS82 KGSP 102217
RFWGSP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
617 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

...WINDY AND VERY DRY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

.Windy and dry conditions with dry fuels will support continued 
critical fire weather conditions for some areas through early 
this evening.

NCZ033-035>037-048>050-052-053-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-
501>510-102330-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200410T2200Z/
Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-
Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
617 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR western North Carolina...

Winds and humidity will continue to improve this evening, putting
an end to critical fire weather conditions across the area.

$$

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-110000-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200411T0000Z/
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-
617 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR northeast Georgia...

* AFFECTED AREA...Rabun, Habersham, Stephens, Franklin, Hart and 
  Elbert.

* TIMING...Through 8 PM EDT this evening.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be very favorable for wildfire 
  ignitions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

RM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
645 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and very dry high pressure will build over the region
through Saturday. A strong storm system with abundant moisture is
expected to affect our region on Sunday and Monday before cool high
pressure returns by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 640 PM EDT Thursday: Warm, dry and breezy conditions continue
with humidities into the teens across many areas. Current fire
related products east of the mountains are well placed with no
changes anticipated.

Otherwise, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for all SC counties
in our FA through 8 PM EDT. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for
portions of the NC mountains through 8 PM EDT as well. A Special
Weather Statement remains in effect for portions of the NC Piedmont
and northeast Georgia regarding the increased fire danger for this
afternoon.

With temperatures well above normal and plenty of sunshine in most
locations, conditions have been rain-free today with the exception
of showers and thunderstorms that moved through the area early this
morning ahead of a cold front. With the cold front continuing to
push into the eastern Carolinas, the main story for today has been
the gusty winds associated with this feature and the increased fire
danger risk given these winds and the low relative humidity. As
noted above, hazard products are in effect for these concerns.

For tonight, do anticipate quiet and dry conditions to prevail with
higher gusts subsiding as upper troughing to the north begins to
slowly drop southward, while shifting eastward as well. Latest
guidance continues to suggest a tightening pressure gradient across
the mountains before daybreak as the vort max drops into the area
(around 09-12Z). As a result, around round of gusty winds may be in
store for the mountains early on before expanding to the rest of the
area (though higher gusts will remain confined to the mountains). As
a result, a Wind Advisory may be needed. Min temperatures will be
around normal. Will note, some of the CAMs continue to suggest light
QPF across the extreme northern mountains late tonight, which with
temperatures below freezing could allow for isolated snow showers
(mainly Avery and Mitchell counties) before daybreak. Attm,
confidence remains low and do not anticipate any snow accumulations.

On Friday, dry conditions will prevail as upper trough shifts
eastward offshore and ridging begins to amplify to the west with sfc
high pressure slowly building in from the west. With the increased
NW winds and low relative humidity, do anticipate criteria to be
near or met for fire weather concerns. Thus, additional fire weather
hazard products may be needed for Friday. After a few days of
temperatures above normal, max temperatures on Friday will actually
remain below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 pm Thursday: The short term will be a tale of two halves,
as the cool and dry weather of the late near term will extend into
at least the first half of the weekend. In fact, within a strong
radiational cooling regime, frost concerns will be on the plate for
Sat morning, mainly along the I-40 corridor in the Piedmont and
foothills. (The spring frost/freeze program is currently inactive
for the mountains). Frost is certainly not a slam dunk, as
dewpoints/RH will still be very much in recovery mode, but suspect a
Frost Advisory will eventually become necessary for all or a portion
of the northern NC Piedmont and foothills for Sat morning.

Otherwise, a split flow regime will be in place across the western
half of the country through much of the period, with northern stream
energy allowing a Four Corners upper low to kick out and open into a
neg tilted trough across the Arklatx by Sunday evening. Partial
phasing of the flow will yield deep S/SW flow/moisture return across
the Southeast Sunday, with warm frontal/upslope precip likely
developing across our forecast area during the afternoon. Potent
cyclone developing across the Mid-Miss and western Ohio
Valleys...tracking into the Great Lakes is expended to send a
strongly forced frontal zone into the western Carolinas and
northeast GA by Sunday evening, with plenty of model clues that a
triple point/sub-synoptic scale low will likely track across the TN
Valley/southern Appalachians. Considering that the Gulf of Mexico
will be wide open...supporting unseasonably high levels of moisture,
these factors would yield a heavy rainfall threat across the region
late Sunday into Sunday night. However, the threat for excessive
rainfall remains somewhat cloudy owing to recent dry conditions.

Perhaps of greater concern is the potential for high shear/low CAPE
severe convection, as guidance is depicting very high values of low
level shear (~50 kts 0-1 km) to go along with the strongly forced
frontal zone. The GFS advects a ribbon of positive sbCAPE (250-500
J/kg) into the Piedmont after 00Z Monday, which is certainly
adequate for severe/potentially tornadic convection in such a
strongly forced/sheared regime. SPC's Day 4 Outlook depicting an
area of 15% risk to coincide with this "ribbon" of sbCAPE therefore
is entirely reasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 pm Thursday: After the fireworks of the late short term,
much of the medium range looks to be quiet and cool, as a broad/low
amplitude trough is forecast to become established across much of
the eastern half of the country. In fact, temps are forecast to be
around 5 degrees below climo through the period. The only potential
disruption to this regime will be a potential for light rain  during
mid-week, when global models depict a Miller-A cyclone developing
off the Southeast Coast. However, the ECMWF, which has been the
wettest model with this scenario for a couple of cycles now, is
trending drier with today's 12Z run. As such, only token small pops
will be carried across primarily the Piedmont during the mid-week
time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: VFR and breezy west to northwest winds are
expected to prevail through the TAF period. Lee troughing may
support winds backing to southwest at times east of the mountains,
especially between 15Z and 22Z Friday.

Outlook: Precipitation and flight restrictions return this weekend.
Otherwise expect VFR.

Confidence Table...

            22-04Z        04-10Z        10-16Z        16-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH has crept below 25% this afternoon across much of the Piedmont
and foothills, while wind gusts of 20-30 mph are common. A Red Flag
Warning remains in effect until 8 pm for Upstate South Carolina.
Fire Danger statements are also in effect for Northeast Georgia and
the non/mtns of North Carolina. RH recovery will not be especially
significant tonight, generally remaining less than 50% in most areas
east of the mountains.

Winds will again be gusty on Friday, and if anything RH will be a
bit lower despite much cooler temps. After coordination with land
management agencies and neighboring NWS offices, Fire Danger
Statements will be issued for all NC and SC zones, but we will wait
until today's products expire before issuing tomorrow's. Further
coordination will be needed with Georgia users.

Winds will be much weaker Saturday, but min RH is nevertheless
forecast to be in the 25-30% range, possibly warranting a new suite
of Fire Danger Statements. Heavy rainfall is forecast to develop
across the area Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ033-048>050-
     053-501-503-505.
SC...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...65/12
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...65
FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
459 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

SCZ001>014-019-102100-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
459 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Red Flag Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

On Sunday, a strong storm system will move through the southeast. It
is expected to produce heavy rainfall and the potential for severe
weather Sunday and Sunday night. Stay tuned to forecast updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-051-052-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-502-504-506>510-102100-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Swain-Haywood-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
459 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

On Sunday, a strong storm system will move through the southeast. It
is expected to produce heavy rainfall and the potential for severe
weather Sunday and Sunday night. Stay tuned to forecast updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-048>050-053-501-503-505-102100-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Caldwell Mountains-
Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
459 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

On Sunday, a strong storm system will move through the southeast. It
is expected to produce heavy rainfall and the potential for severe
weather Sunday and Sunday night. Stay tuned to forecast updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
820 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-101200-
Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-
Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-
Eastern Polk-
820 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

...Increased Fire Danger Friday...

The coupling of low relative humidity and gusty winds will lead
to increased risk of fire danger Friday. Relative humidity values
will drop to around 25 percent and be accompanied by northwest
winds of 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts up to 25 mph.

Residents are asked to postpone outdoor burning.

SCZ001>014-019-101200-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-
Greenwood-
820 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

...Increased Fire Danger Friday...

The coupling of low relative humidity and gusty winds will lead
to increased risk of fire danger Friday. Relative humidity values
will drop to around 20 percent and be accompanied by northwest
winds of 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts up to 25 mph.

Residents are asked to postpone outdoor burning.

17